Framing The World, CXXXXIII Edition

Framing The World, CXXXXIII Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Mozambique, Army against peaceful protests. Following the contested outcome of the October 9 elections, which sparked a wave of mostly peaceful protests, the government responded with severe repressive measures. The deployment of the armed forces has led to a dramatic escalation of violence: dozens of deaths have been reported, including seven protesters killed on November 13 in the northern city of Nampula. Over a hundred people have been injured, and thousands have been arbitrarily arrested. The repression did not spare the security forces, who also suffered casualties, with one police officer killed during the initial demonstrations. In response, the SADC has convened an extraordinary summit to be held in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, from November 16 to 20.

Libya, proposals threaten women’s rights. On November 6, Emad Trabelsi, acting interior minister in Libya’s Government of National Unity, announced at a press conference in Tripoli the implementation of sweeping “morality” measures targeting women and girls in western Libya. These measures would severely curtail women’s rights, including restrictions on dress, social interactions, and travel. Trabelsi stated there would be no room for personal freedom, threatening to imprison unrelated couples meeting in public and mandating hijabs for women and girls from fourth grade. Women’s travel abroad would require written permission from a male guardian, undermining their autonomy and violating international and constitutional rights. Despite these proposals, Libyan officials, including the prime minister, have remained silent.

Sofia Ena

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, a nuclear renaissance. The Biden administration will unveil a plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050 and meet the growing demand for continued carbon-free energy. The roadmap calls for 200 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity by mid-century through the construction of new reactors and the restarting and upgrading of existing plants. The intermediate target for 2035, meanwhile, is to add 35 gigawatts of capacity. The plan aims to address the obstacles (shortage of skilled labor, the domestic supply of nuclear fuel, and regulatory issues) that have hindered the deployment of this energy source. This strategy finds bipartisan support in Washington, including President-elect Trump, as already demonstrated last July by the passage of a bill that enhanced the tools available to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to support and regulate new nuclear technologies.

Europe, a widening gap with the US. The European stock market is registering its largest gap from the U.S. stock market in nearly 30 years, a gap set to widen with the election of Donald Trump. In fact, his victory has re-energized the rally of the S&P 500, which has gained 25% since January, while the European Stoxx 600 index is up only 5%, marking its worst gap since 1995. Europe's already weak economy is likely to worsen due to possible tariffs on exports and trade tensions with China, and investors are shifting to the U.S., with the allocation on U.S. stocks overweight by 29% after the election, while Europe remains underweight by 3%. Finally, the S&P 500 is trading at 22.5 times future earnings, a 70% premium to the Stoxx 600, with US dominance set to continue, driven by economic growth and higher earnings than Europe, according to analysts.

Europe, the GDP forecast. The German economy will continue to experience lower growth than the eurozone average until 2026, according to forecasts by the European Commission. For 2024, GDP is estimated to contract by 0.1% in Germany, compared with growth of 0.8% in the eurozone, confirming a negative trend that has persisted since 2021. Weak global trade and uncertainty have hurt consumption and investment, making Germany the worst performing country among the G7 members. However, a recovery is expected in 2025-2026, driven by recovering domestic demand and rising real wages, with German GDP is estimated to grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, while remaining below the eurozone average (1.6%). Inflation, down sharply from a peak of 11.6% in 2022, is forecast at 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026, helped mainly by lower energy prices.

US, inflation climbs again. U.S. inflation rose to 2.6% in October, in line with forecasts and higher than September's 2.4%. The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, while monthly prices rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month, signalling persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve is considering further interest rate cuts to reach a neutral rate that will contain inflation without curbing demand. After these data, financial markets continue to believe that a further rate cut in December is almost certain, as the U.S. economy remains robust: consumption and the labor market are robust, despite slowdowns caused by events such as strikes and hurricanes. The Fed continues to expect a gradual return of inflation to 2% over the long term, but Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, could fuel inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties.

Antitrust, a fine for Facebook. Meta Platforms has been fined €798 million by the European Union for antitrust violations, accused of tying its Facebook Marketplace service to the social platform following an investigation into how Meta uses its dominant position to eliminate competition. According to EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager, Meta exploited Facebook to benefit its Marketplace service and used data from rival platforms to strengthen its position. The European Commission also ordered Meta to discontinue this practice and not to impose unfair trading conditions on its competitors in the ad industry. Meta has announced its intention to appeal, calling the sanction unfair and one that fails to take into account both market dynamics and the competition present in the European market.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mozambique, protests continue. On Nov. 11 Venâncio Mondlane, the opponent who according to official results was defeated in the Oct. 9 presidential election, called for three more days of protests against fraud and a violent crackdown by government forces that has left at least 30 people dead. On November 7, a large demonstration in Maputo was to close a week of protests against Frelimo, but the turnout was smaller than expected.

Equatorial Guinea, Malabo-Moscow axis strengthens. Reuters news agency reported Nov. 12 that Russia has sent some 200 military trainers to the country to strengthen the protection of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, expanding its influence in West Africa. The Russians are reportedly training an elite corps in the two main cities of the small oil-exporting country of 1.7 million, according to some sources.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Gabon: Post-coup constitutional referendum.
Gabon held a constitutional referendum, seen as a crucial step toward restoring democracy after the 2023 coup that toppled the Bongo dynasty. The new constitution introduces a two-term limit for the presidency, each lasting seven years, eliminates the position of prime minister, and establishes strict criteria for presidential candidates, effectively excluding Ali Bongo. Transitional president Brice Oligui Nguema, who described the vote as “a great step forward,” has pledged to return power to civilians by 2025. However, some observers fear the junta may use the process to entrench its authority. Campaigns were dominated by "yes" propaganda, with the government reporting a 71% voter turnout.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, deadline for Israel expires. After the 30-day US deadline for Israel to take steps to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza has expired, the American administration concluded that Israel was not blocking aid, although eight different international aid groups stated Israel didn’t meet the demands to improve access for assistance. On this topic, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Israel had taken some steps to improve aid, but there are areas where Israel still has to meet the US demands. Blinken also called for Israel to hold extended pauses of fighting to allow a more efficient and wide relief to the population in the Gaza strip.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

Canada: New Immigration Policies, Government Aims to Cut Down on Temporary Residents. In November, the Canadian government unveiled new immigration policies aiming to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2026. The move is designed to address rising demographic pressures and issues with housing and social services. The plan focuses on helping skilled workers and international students already in Canada transition to permanent residency. However, the policies have sparked some backlash, with critics worried that they could limit opportunities for those looking to settle permanently. This debate is expected to have political consequences, especially in the upcoming elections. The changes will be phased in, with a review scheduled for 2025.

Trump re-elected: New Economic Policies Focus on Deregulation, Tariffs, and Innovation. Following Donald Trump’s reelection, the announced economic policies have captured the attention of financial markets. Central to the discussions are the introduction of new tariffs and a further push for deregulation, aimed at easing business operations and fostering economic growth. However, these measures could lead to a slight increase in inflation, and their overall impact on the U.S. economy remains uncertain. A notable development is the appointment of Elon Musk as head of the Department for Government Efficiency, a position that could drive technological innovation within the public sector. The potential global repercussions and effects on the value of the dollar are still under scrutiny.

(Caterina De Rosa)

Lorenzo Graziani and Caterina De Rosa

LATIN AMERICA

Peru, the port of discord: In Chancay, the Chinese state-owned logistics and shipping company COSCO has invested several billion in transforming what was once a quiet fishing village into one of South America's future maritime trade hubs. Chinese President Xi Jinping himself attended the inauguration of the port. Once operational, the port will become the main hub for the exchange of goods between the Pacific coastal countries and the Asian giant. The first alarm signals have already gone off in Washington for what is considered a further step in China's penetration of the continent.

Michele Magistretti

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Japan, Ishiba confirmed at the head of the country. Despite his recent defeat in the general election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was reconfirmed as head of the executive, although he lacks a parliamentary majority and is disliked by voters. Ishiba defeated Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the largest opposition party, in the ballot that determined his reappointment. The prime minister then promised to revise party funding laws to increase transparency and control. Japan risks returning to a system characterised by frequent changes of government and high instability at a time of complex social challenges such as inflation and an ageing population. At the same time, domestic political instability could undermine Japan's international leadership at a time when it may be needed.

China, Xi to attend the APEC summit. President Xi Jinping travelled to Peru accompanied by some 400 businessmen and entrepreneurs to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Highlights included the inauguration of the new Peruvian port of Chancay, financed and operated by China, and the signing of some 30 bilateral agreements. US President Joe Biden also arrived on Thursday and there is speculation that the two leaders may meet. Should this hypothesis come to fruition, it would be the first known interaction between Biden and Xi since the April phone call and the last in-person meeting on the sidelines of last year's Apec summit. The two are expected to discuss hot topics such as the situation in Taiwan, human rights violations in Xinjiang, and Chinese support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

France, trial of Marine Le Pen. On 13 November, the Paris public prosecutor's office demanded five years in prison and ineligibility for Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National, accused of using European funds to pay party employees and RN members. Le Pen called the charges ‘violent and outrageous’, claiming they were an attack on democracy and aimed at obstructing her candidacy. The prosecution accuses the defendants of allegedly misappropriating funds amounting to around €4.5 million. The case concerns contracts for parliamentary assistants, concluded between 2004 and 2016, some of whom worked exclusively for the party rather than for MEPs. If convicted, Le Pen would not be able to run in the 2027 presidential elections; in addition, the prosecution has demanded fines of €300,000 for Le Pen and €2 million for the party. The trial is still ongoing and the verdict is expected by spring.

EU, Meta fined. The European Commission has fined Facebook owner Meta EUR 797.72 million, accusing it of abusing its dominant position. The infringement concerns the integration of Facebook Marketplace into the social network, which offers users automatic and regular access to the ad service, penalising competitors. According to the EU, this integration gives Marketplace an unparalleled competitive advantage; in addition, Meta allegedly imposed unfair conditions on other advertising service providers on Facebook and Instagram, using their data for its own benefit. Meta has 60 days to comply with the decision or propose alternatives to separate Marketplace from the social network, giving users more freedom of choice. The company has announced that it will appeal the decision, arguing that the market has changed since 2021, when the investigation began, and that competitors are able to compete.

(Bianca Franzini)

Netherlands and Norway, moving toward Schengen suspension to limit irregular immigration. The Netherlands and Norway have announced the reintroduction of border controls in the coming months. In the Netherlands, the controls will begin on December 9 and will last for six months, as part of the government’s policy under Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV), to combat irregular immigration. On November 11, the European Commission received an official notification from the Dutch authorities regarding the reintroduction of controls, which will remain in place until June 8, 2025, with the aim of limiting irregular immigration and migrant trafficking. Norway has also decided to extend the border controls already in place until December 1. Oslo’s Minister for Public Security, Emilie Mehl, justified the extension primarily for security reasons, citing “threats to Jewish and Israeli targets.”

Germany Facing Early Elections. Germany is preparing for early elections on February 23, 2025, amid a severe economic and political crisis. The government coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz is witnessing a sharp decline in support, as Scholz is criticized for failing to implement significant reforms to modernize the German economy. There is also a lack of concrete action in response to the energy crisis and global economic shifts, leaving the country vulnerable to industrial decline. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which won 26.9% of the vote in 2021, has dropped to 15.5% in the polls, facing the risk of a disastrous result. Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has risen to 32%. However, the real threat comes from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which is gaining momentum with 18% of the vote.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Russia, President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a phone conversation on Friday. This marked the first direct discussion between the two leaders in the past two years. According to sources within the German government, Scholz deemed the aggression against Ukraine unacceptable, particularly the bombing of civilian sites. The Chancellor also urged Putin to withdraw his troops and to seriously commit to negotiating a lasting peace with Ukraine. Scholz had previously spoken with Ukrainian President Zelensky, informing him of the planned call with Putin. Zelensky warned Scholz that such an action would only serve to reduce Putin's isolation, ultimately playing the Russian president's game. Putin and Scholz reportedly agreed to remain in contact. Scholz has consistently advocated for a prudent policy towards Russia, as he stated in Parliament on Wednesday.

(Silvia Pasetto)

Donald Trump declared that ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be a top priority. Speaking at the America First Policy Institute gala in Florida, Trump emphasized that the war has had devastating consequences not only for the countries involved but also for global stability and the world economy. He added that his administration would focus on swift negotiations and a resolution to restore balance in the region. Criticizing the current Biden administration, Trump argued that it has not done enough to facilitate a resolution to the conflict. He stressed the importance of a strategic approach, including strengthening relationships with European allies to jointly manage the situation. “Peace must be our primary goal, but it has to be a just peace that does not compromise the security of the United States and its allies,” Trump stated. While not directly addressing Trump’s remarks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to urge the international community for stronger support, reiterating that the only way to end the war is through the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. Zelensky also emphasized that any compromise must uphold Ukraine's territorial integrity.

(Federico Cortese)

Silvia Pasetto and Federico Cortese

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Lebanon: Iran to support Beirut in ceasefire negotiations. According to Reuters, two Lebanese military officials have disclosed that Iran is ready to back Lebanon in negotiations for a ceasefire. After days of intense Israeli bombardments in southern Lebanon and Beirut, Tehran has ramped up its diplomatic efforts to secure an agreement, particularly in light of the significant losses Israel has inflicted on Hezbollah, one of Iran's key historical allies. Additionally, two Lebanese sources revealed that the U.S. Ambassador to Beirut has presented a draft proposal to achieve the ceasefire. This information has been corroborated, while other sources told the Washington Post that Israel is also taking steps toward this goal to "deliver a diplomatic win for the United States following Donald Trump’s election." Despite Tel Aviv escalating its bombings, the outgoing U.S. administration appears optimistic about achieving a diplomatic breakthrough.

Gaza: Italy sends 15 tons of humanitarian aid to the strip. Reaffirming Italy's commitment to de-escalating the conflict and alleviating the dire humanitarian crisis faced by the people of Gaza, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has addressed the ongoing war in the region. The Ministry of Defense also released a statement noting that on Saturday, a C-130J military aircraft departed from Pisa for Larnaca, Cyprus, en route to Gaza to deliver aid gathered by the National Confederation of Italian Misericordiae.

Matteo Francescucci 

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Georgia, storming parliament in Abkhazia region. On Friday morning, about 100 protesters attempted to storm the seat of the legislative assembly of Abkhazia, a northwestern region of Georgia that has been claiming its independence from the Caucasian state since the 1990s; sovereignty that to date is recognized by only five states, including Russia. The reasons for the protests stem from the ratification of a new trade agreement with Moscow, which opponents say would further reduce the region's autonomy in favour of Russia. In fact, under the agreement Russian companies will be able indiscriminately to implement their projects in the territory, unilaterally acquiring ownership rights to land and real estate.

France, Georges Ibrahim Abdallah will be released from prison. Under a French court's ruling, Georges Ibrahim Abdallah will be allowed to leave the prison next Dec. 6 where he is serving a life sentence, the same sentence imposed on him in 1987 on charges of being behind the 1982 assassination of Israeli diplomat Yakov Barsimentov in Paris. Abdallah was the head of a 'Marxist-based armed organisation responsible for several terrorist operations against as many Israeli diplomatic representatives in retaliation for Israel's involvement in the Lebanese civil war that broke out in the 1970s. The French counterterrorism prosecutor said he will appeal.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Ukraine denies Russian advance on Kupiansk after failed assault. Russian troops launched a major offensive on Kupiansk, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses with tank convoys and infantry attacks. Some Russian soldiers reportedly wore Ukrainian uniforms, a violation of war laws described as a war crime by Ukraine’s military. Despite the intense assault, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled all attacks, with no Russian troops establishing a foothold in the city or its surroundings. Kupiansk, a key city on the northwestern front, was occupied by Russian forces early in the 2022 invasion but recaptured by Ukraine after eight months.

UK, Russian frigate Admiral Golovko sails through English Channel for drills. The Russian frigate Admiral Golovko, equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles, transited the English Channel en route to the Atlantic for naval exercises. Known as "aircraft carrier killers," these missiles pose a strategic threat due to their speed and range. The ship conducted counter-terrorism drills, simulating drone attacks, during its journey. The UK’s Royal Navy shadowed the vessel, ensuring compliance with maritime law. The frigate departed Severomorsk, Russia’s Arctic naval hub, for its long-term mission. Defence experts highlight the challenge hypersonic missiles present to Western defenses, reducing reaction time to mere seconds.

(Gonzalo Pereyra)

Davide Shahhosseini and Gonzalo Pereyra

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union