Framing The World, CXXXI Edition

Framing The World, CXXXI Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Namibia, overturned law banning same-sex relationships. The Namibian High Court made a landmark decision, annulling colonial-era laws that criminalized consensual same-sex relationships. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations celebrated this ruling as a major victory for human rights and LGBTQ+ equality. The decision came after two Namibian men challenged the constitutionality of these laws, prompting the court to recognize their incompatibility with contemporary human rights standards. Activists believe that this decision is crucial in promoting full equality and acceptance of LGBTQ+ people, strengthening Namibia's commitment to safeguarding the rights of all its citizens.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Kenya, protests erupt against new tax proposals. Kenya is currently rocked by widespread protests against President William Ruto's new tax proposals to increase taxes on essential consumer goods such as bread, cooking oil, banking transactions, and cars. The demonstrations have seen clashes between police and protesters, concentrated mainly in Nairobi but also in other key cities such as Mombasa, Nakuru, and Eldoret. The protests resulted in over 200 arrests and drew strong condemnation from human rights groups. Subsequently, President Ruto gave in to the pressure by withdrawing some of the most contested taxes, including the tax on bread, promising a review of the measures."

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

EU, new tariffs on China. Following the example of the United States, the European Union has decided to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in an effort to push its own automakers to compete with Asian competitors. The EU's new tariffs will go into effect on July 4, unless breakthroughs are reached in negotiations. The duties will range from 17% for manufacturer BYD to 38% for SAIC, on top of the 10% already in force on all Chinese EVs. The EU is increasing duties out of concern that cheap Chinese cars subsidized by the Beijing government will bring European manufacturers to their knees. Not everyone is celebrating the introduction of the new duties, however: in fact, German automakers, for whom China accounts for about 30% of sales, are concerned about possible retaliation by China.

France, the fallout from the election. Last week, President Emmanuel Macron's shock announcement of a snap election following his defeat in the European elections triggered a wave of selling in French markets that wiped some $258 billion off their market capitalization. Shares of banking institutions such as Société Générale, BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole -all major holders of government debt - lost more than 10%. As a whole, political developments have led Paris to lose its role as Europe's leading stock market to London, less than two years after snatching the top spot precisely from the United Kingdom. Paris now has a capitalization of about $3.13 trillion, lower than that of the United Kingdom, which stands at $3.18 trillion. After falling more than 7%, the CAC 40 index has thus erased all of its gains for 2024 - a sharp reversal from the all-time highs of just last month.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

EU visa costs get higher. In 2023, African citizens spent more than 56 million euros to present visa applications in order to access Europe’s Schengen area that were rejected. 24% out of the total amount of applications came from African citizens, and 43,1% got rejected. Seven out of the ten countries whose applications are denied are African: Algeria (with a total amount of 392 thousands of rejections), Guinea - Bissau, Nigeria, Ghana,Senegal, Guinea and Mali.

South Africa, the formation of a broad-based government is expected. After obtaining less than 50% of preferences during the elections held on the 29th of May, African National Congress (Ann, the ruling party since 1994) on June, 14th has announced its will of forming a national unity government with the Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party, seen by many as representative of the white minority. From the Anc point of view, its natural allies would have been uMkhonto weSizwe, led by former President Jacob Zuma, or the Economic freedom fighters led by Julius Malema, but no negotiation seems to have been started.

Aurelia Puliafito

NORTH AMERICA

U.S. dominance over investment. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. has received a larger share of global investment than in the past: whereas before the pandemic 18% of global investment was channeled to the U.S., the figure is now approaching 30%. The appeal of the U.S. as an investment destination is mainly dictated by the fact that higher interest rates than elsewhere mean that overseas investors can get excellent returns from low-risk assets such as government bonds, but also from the large government incentives in sectors such as renewable energy and semiconductors. However, the upcoming presidential election could reverse these policies, and the Federal Reserve is hinting at an interest rate cut later this year, which could make U.S. assets less attractive to global investors.

Federal Reserve, no news. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indicated that there will be only one interest rate cut this year, despite the mild inflation report. In fact, May inflation turned out to be lower than expected, with prices unchanged from the previous month for the first time in nearly two years, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.3%. But despite this data, the central bank kept rates at their highest in two decades, between 5.25% and 5.5%, and signaled only one rate cut this year. This forecast is not unanimous, however, with seven Fed board members predicting one cut, eight saying two and four none. Investors, by contrast, are still betting on two cuts.

Leonardo Aldeghi

LATIN AMERICA

Brazil, right to abortion at risk. According to today's law, the right to abortion in Brazil is only guaranteed in cases where the foetus presents serious malfunctions, where the woman's life is in danger, or where she has suffered sexual violence. Freedom in terms of choice is called into question by the new bill 1904/2024, which will soon be considered by the legislative assembly. The proposal equates abortion after 22 weeks with murder even for rape victims, with a possible sentence of six to 20 years in prison. Some, such as the presidency of the National Conference of Bishops in Brazil (CNBB) once again emphasised its position in defence of life at all stages. Waiting for developments, millions of people reacted, demonstrating in the streets against further criminalisation of abortion.

Serena Basso

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Thailand, Parliament Approves Equal Marriage. On June 18, the Thai Senate overwhelmingly approved the equal marriage law, which had previously been voted on by the House of Representatives on March 27. This historic legislation grants LGBTQIA+ couples the same rights as heterosexual couples in terms of marriage, adoption, medical consent, and inheritance. The bill will now be sent to the King for formal approval, and once published in the official Gazette, it will become law within 120 days. At that point, Thailand will become the first country in Southeast Asia to legalize equal marriage, marking a significant step forward for civil rights in the region.

Sofia Ena

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU, Council says yes to Nature Restoration Law. The EU Council has approved the Nature Restoration Law. It is one of the measures of the European Green Deal that will set binding targets to restore 30% of the EU's degraded terrestrial and marine, coastal and freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands, grasslands, forests, rivers and lakes, by 2030. By 2050, Member States will have to establish and adopt measures that aim to restore 90% of the ecosystems in poor condition. Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Finland and Sweden voted against, while Belgium abstained.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, agreement reached on new sanctions against Russia. The ambassadors of the EU Member States reached an agreement on the fourteenth package of sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. For the first time, the sanctions target supplies of liquefied natural gas, which several Member States (including Belgium, France and Spain) continue to purchase. However, the new measures do not impose an outright ban on imports (as was previously done with coal and maritime oil): liquefied natural gas can be purchased but cannot be re-exported to other countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that "this hard-hitting package will further deny Russia access to key technologies" and that "it will deprive Russia of additional energy revenues".

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, Accession Negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova Begin. On June 21, the EU Ministers of Economy and Finance approved the negotiation frameworks for the accession of Ukraine and Moldova without discussion. The first intergovernmental conferences will be held on June 25 in Luxembourg, marking the beginning of the final step in the process of joining the European Union. The Belgian presidency announced that the conferences, followed by press briefings, will take place between 3:00 PM and 7:30 PM. Meanwhile, on June 26 in Brussels, a ministerial meeting with Montenegro will be held to discuss the progress made in the rule of law chapters. Montenegro, the most advanced partner in the accession process, aims to conclude the negotiations by 2026 and to obtain the ratification of the Accession Treaty by 2028.

(Sofia Ena)

France, Macron Calls for Early Elections. Following the exit polls of the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and called for early legislative elections. The first round will be held on June 30, followed by the second round on July 7. Macron's decision was prompted by poll results showing the far-right party "Rassemblement National" (RN) gaining approximately 31.5 percent of the vote, while Macron's party, "Renaissance," secured only 15.2 percent. Macron emphasized that returning to the polls is an act of trust in the French people and their ability to make the right choice for the nation's future. He also expressed concern over the significant support for the far right, which received 40 percent of the expressed votes.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Switzerland, peace conference on Ukraine concluded In Lucerne. The peace conference attended by 57 heads of state and government and 100 national delegations came to an end. On the table, which saw the absence of Russia, was the negotiation of peace in Ukraine. The final communiqué produced by the summit “reaffirms the territorial integrity” of Ukraine and promotes “dialogue between all parties” by pushing for a full exchange of prisoners and a halt to deportations of children to Russia. The final communiqué was signed by 84 countries out of 92: non-signatories included Armenia, Colombia, the Vatican, India, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa and Thailand. The signatory international organizations, on the other hand, include only the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Europe.

(Federico Cortese)

Slovakia, parliament approves the closure of the public TV station Rtvs. MPs have given the green light to the Fico government's bill on the closure and liquidation of the broadcaster, which will come under government control if Head of State Peter Pellegrini signs the measure on 1 July. The intervention raises concerns about a possible reduction in press freedom, a situation also signalled by the European Commission, but which in this case concerns a populist left-wing government led by Prime Minister Fico, who is working on radical reforms of public institutions and NGOs engaged in environmental protection and humanitarian missions. A model reminiscent, paradoxically, of Orban's Hungarian right wing and the political programmes of Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, poised for electoral victory in France.

(Federico Cortese)

Armenia, the Government Recognizes the State of Palestine. On June 21, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the recognition of the Palestinian state. In a statement, Armenia reaffirmed its respect for international law and the principles of equality, sovereignty, and peaceful coexistence among peoples. Yerevan expressed its support for lasting peace in the region and reiterated the need for an immediate truce in Gaza. Hussein al Sheikh, Secretary-General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), welcomed the Armenian decision, calling it a victory for the rights and justice of the Palestinian people. In response, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Armenian ambassador for a severe reprimand. According to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), almost 150 of the 193 United Nations member states have recognized the Palestinian state.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Cyprus, No Involvement in the Middle East Conflict. The President of Cyprus has denied involvement in Israel's military operations in the Middle East, assuring an open diplomatic channel with Lebanon and Iran. The European Union responded to Hezbollah's threats, stating that any threat to Cyprus is a threat to the entire EU. The European Commission spokesman welcomed the efforts of the USA and France to calm the situation and emphasised the need for de-escalation. Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, threatened to attack anyone aiding Israel in the event of a war against Lebanon. The Cypriot president stated that Cyprus is part of the solution, not the problem, and recalled the Cyprus-Gaza humanitarian corridor.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Alessandro Alloro and Federico Cortese

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, risk of escalation towards Lebanon: the tension on Israel's northern border shows no sign of abating. The mutual bombardments are becoming more intense and the Israeli leadership is beginning to seriously consider the possibility of a ground invasion to clear southern Lebanon of the presence of the Hezbollah terrorist group. Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip, about three hundred Hezbollah militiamen and about twenty Israeli soldiers have died, along with about a hundred Lebanese civilians and a dozen Israelis. The US administration has shown concern about the ally's new intentions and seeks to discourage the opening of a second front that would have devastating consequences for the already precarious regional stability.

Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

South Korea, North Korean trespass beyond the 'demilitarised zone'. According to reports from the South Korean authorities, on Thursday a North Korean military patrol crossed the so-called DMZ - the Korean Demilitarised Zone - crossing the 38th parallel, which has delineated the border between the two countries since the end of the war in 1953. The episode was derubricated by Seoul as "accidental trespassing" by the North Korean soldiers themselves, who, faced with the warning shots from the South Koreans, immediately returned. However, in recent weeks, as many incidents of North Korean 'trespassing' have brought the issue of national security back to the centre of public and political debate in South Korea.

Japan, trade restrictions against Chinese companies. The Japanese government has announced a series of restrictive measures against foreign companies accused of supporting, directly or otherwise, Russian military operations on Ukrainian territory. Many of the companies affected by the Japanese sanctions are based in China: among them Asia Pacific Links, based in Hong Kong, and Yilufa Electronics, based in Shenzhen. Although Tokyo had already imposed trade restrictions on Chinese companies, these measures were never motivated in connection with Beijing's support of Russia.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Josè Pereira Ochoa: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union