Framing The World, CXXXXIV Edition

Framing The World, CXXXXIV Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Zimbabwe, Parliament abolishes the death penalty. On December 11, Zimbabwe's Parliament passed a law to permanently abolish the death penalty, a move anticipated since the government gave its preliminary approval to the proposal in February. The decision follows Zimbabwe's favorable vote at the United Nations supporting a moratorium on capital executions. The bill now awaits ratification by President Emmerson Mnangagwa, which is seen as a formality, as he has commuted all death sentences since assuming power in 2017. Mnangagwa himself had been close to execution during the country's liberation struggle. The last execution in Zimbabwe occurred in 2005, after which the executioner retired and was never replaced.

Serbia, Journalists and Activists under surveillance. In February 2024, Serbian journalist Slaviša Milanov was stopped by the police, who confiscated his smartphone. Upon its return, Milanov discovered that the device had been tampered with and its data erased. An analysis by Amnesty International’s Security Lab revealed the installation of spyware, NoviSpy, likely used by Serbian authorities. This software allows remote activation of microphones and cameras. The police and the State Security Agency (BIA) regularly use NoviSpy to monitor the communications of journalists and activists, manipulating devices during interrogations. Although a vulnerability in Android was fixed in October 2024, the impact on free expression is devastating, forcing activists into self-censorship.

(Sofia Ena)

Europe: many countries towards the suspension of Syrian’s asylum applications.Since December,France,Norway,Denmark,Italy,Sweden and Greece have announced that they have suspended the examination of asylum applications from Syrian citizens. Austria plans a return and expulsion programme for Syrians who have already been granted refugee status. UNHCR says Syria cannot be considered a safe country, saying it is concerned about refugees who cannot be repatriated to a country where there is a serious humanitarian crisis.

(Lisa Pasolini)

Sofia Ena and Lisa Pasolini

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, a surprise from the FED. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, bringing it down to a range of 4.25 % to 4.5 %, by an 11-1 vote of the FOMC. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack objected, preferring to keep rates unchanged. At a press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said monetary policy is now less restrictive, but preached caution about any further cuts, adding that rates continue to significantly restrain the economy and that progress on inflation will be needed before further reductions. The Fed now expects only 0.5% cuts in 2025, down from an estimated 1% in September. Market reaction has been extremely negative, with S&P500 and Nasdaq down more than 3% and further losses in the following sessions, thus closing the worst week in 3 months.

Switzerland, a larger-than-expected reduction. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its main interest rate by 0.5%, more than forecasts that estimated a 25-point cut, to 0.5%, in response to falling inflation, which fell from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November. President Martin Schlegel explained that current monetary policy was too restrictive and the cut is intended to counter pressure on the franc as a safe haven asset. The move, the largest in nearly 10 years, weakened the franc against the dollar and euro and helped the Zurich SMI index rise 0.5%. The SNB also moderated language on future interventions signaling more caution in the use of monetary policy.

Interest rates, cut in the EU as well. The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut the deposit rate for the third consecutive time by a quarter point to 3%, with further cuts planned in 2025. Also, the reference to a “sufficiently restrictive policy,” indicating a change in approach from recent years, was removed from the official statement. The ECB now plans a gradual approach, with reductions of 25 basis points in January and March, with decisions to be made on a case-by-case basis, also taking into account the impact of Donald Trump's future policies. Finally, Chair Lagarde pointed out that “the economy is expected to strengthen over time, but at a slower pace than expected,” stressing that greater tensions in global trade would hurt Eurozone growth by reducing exports and weakening the global economy.

China, change of course. The Politburo, led by Xi Jinping, has announced a “moderately expansionary” monetary strategy and a “more proactive” fiscal approach for 2025, promising extraordinary measures to stabilize markets and stimulate consumption in order to deal with a possible trade conflict with the Trump administration. The decision is historic because it is the first change in the approach to monetary policy in 13 years. The Politburo thus signaled its intention to intensify the economic stimulus already initiated in September, aiming for an increase in the budget deficit and more ambitious growth targets. The government's urgency reflects a change in outlook from the previous quarter, which saw the Chinese economy under pressure from trade tensions and deflation that shows no sign of abating, with producer prices falling for the 26th consecutive month and consumer prices at 5-month lows.

Germany, less worse than expected? German industrial orders in October fell 1.5%, less than expected (-2%), suggesting possible mitigation of the manufacturing recession. Excluding large-scale orders, however, demand rose 0.1%, while September's figures were revised upward (+7.2%). The downturn in the manufacturing sector, which has been shrinking since 2022, is attributed to weak foreign demand, high financing costs and domestic structural problems, such as a shortage of skilled labor and high energy costs. The situation is particularly critical in the automotive sector, where companies such as Volkswagen face difficulties in transitioning to electric vehicles. However, the DIHK (German Chamber of Commerce) remains pessimistic, pointing to domestic demand at its lowest since the pandemic and a continued reduction in investment caused by the uncertain situation, only partly mitigated by positive signals from abroad.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Democratic Republic of Congo, an as-yet unidentified disease is rampant. A team of epidemiologists, biologists, and trained health workers sent by Congolese health authorities and the World Health Organization (WHO), arrived Dec. 8 in Kwango province in the southwest of the country to study an unidentified disease, called “X,” that has spread in the region, that is poorly connected to the rest of the country. More than 400 cases and at least 31 deaths, mostly children, have been reported in the area since Oct. 24. Symptoms include fever, headache, cough, cold and joint pain. Local health officials say malaria parasites are not causing the hemorrhagic fever reported in the current outbreak. The hypothesis is that more disease is affecting the population in the far west of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Horn of Africa, historic agreement reached between Ethiopia and Somalia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced Dec. 11 that Ethiopia and Somalia had reached an agreement, with his mediation, to end tensions related to the Addis Ababa sea access issue, after eight hours of negotiations in Ankara. During a joint press conference with the Ethiopian prime minister and Somali president, Erdoğan said the agreement, which he called historic, “marks a new beginning in relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, based on peace and cooperation. ‘According to the text of the agreement, made public by Ankara, the parties agreed to jointly establish bilateral and trade arrangements that would guarantee Ethiopia ’reliable, safe and sustainable access to the sea under the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia.”

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Rwanda: President announces bid to host Formula 1 Grand Prix. Rwandan President Paul Kagame has officially announced his country's bid to host a Formula 1 Grand Prix, marking a potential return of racing to Africa after 30 years. The announcement was made in Kigali during the FIA General Assembly, underscoring the growing significance of motorsport in the region. President Kagame emphasized Rwanda's strong commitment to this opportunity. The circuit, designed by former driver Alexander Wurz, would be located near the new international airport under construction in Bugesera, 40 km from the capital. Formula 1, which has not raced in Africa since 1993, has been in discussions with Rwanda for months. Stefano Domenicali, CEO of F1, expressed enthusiasm for the project.

Sudan: Over 700 killed in al-Fashir since May, UN reports. Since May, over 700 people have been killed in al-Fashir, in Sudan's North Darfur state, according to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk. The city’s siege by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and ongoing clashes have devastated the civilian population. The UN has documented at least 782 civilian deaths and over 1,143 injuries, with evidence gathered through interviews with displaced individuals. The casualties result from intense RSF shelling of densely populated areas and airstrikes by the Sudanese Armed Forces. Attacks on civilians, if verified, could constitute war crimes, the UN stated. The conflict between the army and RSF, ongoing for over 18 months, has triggered a humanitarian crisis, with more than 12 million people displaced. Al-Fashir is a critical frontline, and the international community fears ethnic reprisals should the RSF secure victory, as witnessed in West Darfur.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

Canada between political crisis and economic sovereignty. The recent political crisis in Canada erupted with the sudden resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, due to disagreements with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over the handling of the tariff threats from the United States. This event has further complicated the already fragile relationship between the two countries, with Donald Trump, the elected president of the United States, ironically suggesting that Canada could become the 51st state, thus highlighting the trade deficit between the two nations. In response to this pressure, the Canadian government announced new measures to strengthen border security.

Canada between political crisis and economic sovereignty. Meanwhile, Canadian media have emphasized the importance of an autonomous economic plan, highlighting the urgent need to diversify trade partners to reduce dependence on the United States. In a national address, Trudeau reaffirmed Canada's sovereignty and announced the initiation of multilateral talks with the European Union and other global powers. However, political uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the future of the government, with early elections potentially inevitable.

(Caterina De Rosa )

United States of America: Blinken in Jordan for Syria. During the talks on the situation in Syria held in Aqaba, Jordan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had made “direct contact” with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known as HTS, the organization that fought against the Bashar al-Assad regime. Blinken, together with the diplomats from Turkey, the EU and the Arab countries, issued a final statement after the meeting, in which they “affirmed the full support to the Syrian people at this critical point in their history to build a more hopeful, secure and peaceful future”. Although the resolve to open up the talks may seem strange, since Washington designated HTS as a terrorist organization in 2018, in Jordan Blinken specified that the US have indeed “been in contact with HTS and with other parties”.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

Caterina De Rosa and Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Brazil, Lula's precarious health. A domestic accident in October caused a brain haemorrhage in the Brazilian president, who was rushed to hospital for surgery. Lula was later discharged from hospital and has to recover his strength. Meanwhile, both branches of the Brazilian parliament approved the economic programme advanced by the president. The aim is to gradually reduce the public sector deficit by 2030, to try to calm the fears of the financial markets. among the most relevant measures is the change of parameters on which the public sector minimum wage is defined.

Michele Magistretti

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

South Korea, Yoon removed from office. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was suspended from office after declaring martial law for the first time in 45 years. The measure lasted only a few hours and the National Assembly later approved the impeachment of the president thanks to the decisive vote of twelve MPs from his party. During Yoon's suspension, the leadership of the country will temporarily pass to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who, however, not being an elected official will not enjoy a strong political mandate. The impeachment is now under review by the Constitutional Court, which will have to determine whether to uphold Yoon's removal. Should this be the case, South Korea will be called upon to elect a new president within two months following the decision. The opposition has accused Yoon of insurrection, for which South Korean law provides for severe penalties, including the death penalty.

China, nuclear rearmament continues. According to a recent Pentagon report, China has significantly expanded its nuclear arsenal, adding about 100 warheads in the past year and increasing it to over 600 during 2024. Although still far behind the arsenals of the US and Russia, the report estimates that Beijing could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The nuclear build-up suggests that Chinese leaders aim to expand the destructive options available in the event of crisis or conflict. In addition, China has reportedly completed the construction of three missile fields in the northern deserts, equipped with 320 launch silos, some of which are already armed with intercontinental missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. Additional silos would be under construction to strengthen the nuclear response capability. The progress reported by the Pentagon has occurred despite recent corruption scandals involving senior Chinese military officers.

(Francesco Oppia)

India, a new trade war? The Indian government has launched an investigation to consider whether or not introducing duties or temporary taxes on steel imports, in response to pressure from the Indian Steel Association (ISA), which represents giants such as ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel and JSW Steel. According to provisional data, imports from China have hit record levels in the first eight months of the fiscal year. The ISA reports a ‘sudden and significant increase’ in the stock, which would have already hurt the industry. The Directorate for Corrective Trade Measures, an arm of the Ministry of Commerce, confirmed the need for the investigation. Small local steel mills are in trouble, with production cuts and employment risks, as India joins other countries in analysing measures to stem the flow of cheap Chinese steel.

India, IMPHAL. Indian militants who participated in the civil war in Myanmar are escalating the ethnic conflict in the Manipur state, security sources said. Equipped with advanced weapons, including rocket launchers, the fighters are fueling violence between the predominantly Hindu Meitei community and the predominantly Christian Kuki tribes. Since May 2023, the toll is dramatic: 260 dead and more than 60,000 displaced. The growing tension is aggravated by drug trafficking and extortion to finance armed operations. The presence of some 67,000 soldiers and 30,000 policemen is not enough to contain the situation. Many of the Meitei fighters now return from Myanmar, where they had collaborated with the ruling junta, while the Kukis receive support from local rebels. The Indian government is attempting to seal off the 1,600 km border with Myanmar to stem the entry of weapons and militants, but the conflict seems far from being resolved.

(Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi)

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi and Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

France, Barnier Government falls. The government of Michel Barnier has been voted out by the French National Assembly with 331 votes in favor, the result of an unprecedented alliance between the left and the far-right. This marks the end of the shortest mandate in the history of the Fifth Republic, lasting less than three months. The 2025 budget proposal, deemed too rigid, sparked the political clash. In response, President Macron appointed François Bayrou, leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem), as the new prime minister, with the task of forming a government that will break the political deadlock and pass the 2025 budget.

Germany, Scholz Government voted out. Olaf Scholz's government was dismissed by the Bundestag with 207 votes in favor, 394 against, and 116 abstentions, marking the beginning of a path towards early elections, scheduled for February 23. The majority crisis that led to this outcome stems from a rift within the "traffic light" coalition (SPD, FDP, and Greens), unable to reach an agreement on crucial issues like the economy and public spending. The opposition, united against Scholz, criticized his handling of the economic crisis and his European policies. The breakdown was accelerated by Scholz's decision to dismiss Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, after his refusal to support an economic emergency policy. If polling trends hold, the country may shift towards center-right or far-right leadership, with potential consequences for political and democratic stability.

(Sofia Ena)

Romania, elections annulled. The Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the presidential elections on 24 November after intelligence reports revealed manipulation in favour of the winning candidate, Calin Georgescu. The manipulation, orchestrated through TikTok, limited the visibility of the opponents, leading to the postponement of the runoff initially scheduled for 8 December. Outgoing President Iohannis will remain in office until new elections, the date of which will be decided by the government. The revelations have triggered mixed reactions: challenger Elena Lasconi denounces an attack on democracy, while Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu approves of the decision. Georgescu is likely to be excluded from the race. The affair raises doubts about the role of TikTok and the transparency of the Romanian intelligence system, and its difficulties in preventing outside interference.

EU, towards a dialogue with Syrian rebels. The EU has outlined principles for normalising ties with post-Assad Syria, without specifying a timeframe for sanctions relief. The EU calls for an inclusive political process that guarantees territorial integrity, human rights and the protection of minorities, while avoiding extremism and terrorism. The return of Syrian refugees must be voluntary, safe and dignified. The EU, the largest donor to Syria with more than EUR 33 billion since 2011, monitors Hts, the group leading the transition, but remains sceptical about its al-Qaeda-linked past and its ability to ensure pluralism. Although the EU has opened for dialogue, it maintains a gradual approach, making concrete actions, such as the lifting of sanctions, conditional on tangible progress by the transitional government in Syria.

(Bianca Franzini)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Ukraine: Zelensky to halt transit of Russian gas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that, starting next year, no Russian gas will be allowed to transit through Ukraine. This move aims to prevent Russian gas from reaching Western Europe "disguised" as gas produced by other countries—most notably Azerbaijan—when it is merely Russian gas purchased from Baku and resold. This decision is expected to have significant consequences for European countries heavily reliant on Moscow for gas supplies, particularly Slovakia, further worsening relations between Kyiv and Bratislava. However, with the expiration of the agreement between Gazprom and Ukraine, Kyiv itself could face a loss of revenue.

Russia, a new environmental disaster in the Kerch Strait. On December 15, two Russian tankers carrying oil residues were damaged due to a storm and sank, spilling thousands of tons of crude oil into the Black Sea. The Kerch Strait separates Russia from Crimea, and approximately 60 kilometers of coastline are reportedly already contaminated. Russian authorities have begun cleanup operations, but the oil spilled into the sea has already harmed birds and other animals in the affected area, threatening the region's ecosystem for years to come.

Silvia Pasetto

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Syria: Israel to maintain control of Mount Hermon through winter. Israel has taken military control of Mount Hermon, located within a buffer zone established after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. This move has drawn strong condemnation from several countries and the United Nations, as it has been considered a violation of international law. However, Israel has defended its decision, citing security concerns following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and stated that it plans to hold the position "at least through the winter." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the site for a military briefing and later addressed the Israeli public in a video message. Mount Hermon, the highest peak in Syria, is just 40 kilometers from Damascus and offers a strategic vantage point for monitoring critical areas also along the Lebanese border.

Matteo Francescucci

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Palestine, Human Rights Watch accuses Israel of genocide. According to a report published by the North American NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW), the conduct of war adopted by the Jewish state in the Gaza Strip falls under what international law codifies as ‘acts of genocide’. In particular, the report focuses on how the deliberate decision of the Israeli authorities to deprive the strip of the minimum daily inflow of drinking water per person, reducing it to a quantity of less than 10L, is to all intents and purposes an act aimed at the physical destruction (partial or total) of the local population. Also according to HRW, the daily litres per person available to Palestinian civilians before the start of the conflict was about 85. Although far lower than the amount guaranteed on Israeli territory (approximately 245L), this was in compliance with the minimum daily intake stipulated by the World Health Organisation (50-100L per person).

Italy, Iranian citizen arrested on charges of exporting electronic components to Iran for military purposes. He is Mohammad Abedininajafabadi, known as Abedini, the man of Iranian nationality with Swiss citizenship who was arrested last Wednesday while transiting through Malpensa airport on charges of criminal conspiracy. He had an arrest warrant issued by the United States for providing material support to the Revolutionary Guards, the so-called Pasdaran. Abedini was the owner of an Iran-based company, which, according to the Boston court, was contracted to produce the components of the military drone programme for the Revolutionary Guards. The same drones that were used in the attack against US bases in Jordan on 28 January in which three US military personnel lost their lives.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Germany, attack against Magdeburg’s Christmas market kills 5 people and wounds more than 200. On December 20, a car plowed into the crowd at Magdeburg's Christmas market, killing five people, including a nine-year-old child, and injuring over 200, 41 of whom are in serious condition. The suspected attacker, Taleb A., a 50-year-old Saudi doctor residing in Germany since 2006, was arrested at the scene. German authorities have labeled the incident as an "attack," although it remains unconfirmed whether it qualifies as terrorism. Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the attack site to pay tribute to the victims.

Ireland, Israeli embassy closes and diplomatic tensions intensify. On December 15, 2024, Israel closed its embassy in Dublin, accusing the Irish government of adopting "extreme anti-Israeli policies." The decision followed Ireland's unilateral recognition of the State of Palestine and its support for a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. The Israeli Foreign Minister condemned what he called the "demonization of the Jewish state," while the Irish Prime Minister described the closure as "regrettable." This move marks a further deterioration in the already strained relations between the two countries.

(Gonzalo Pereyra)

Davide Shahhosseini and Gonzalo Pereyra

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union