Geopolitics: the Strait of Hormuz and the maritime front of the war in Iran

In recent weeks, the world has woken up to a new era of scarcity. At gas stations, gasoline and diesel prices have skyrocketed, affecting millions—if not billions—of consumers. The cause of this global shock lies in the blockage of a maritime passage just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point: the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s decision to target foreign tankers transiting the strait, which lies between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, in response to the massive bombings suffered by joint U.S. and Israeli forces, adds a new layer to the ongoing conflict, further escalating it. It directly affects neutral nations far from the theater of war and complicates the situation both militarily and diplomatically, particularly in the energy sector, which has always been highly sensitive to instability. About one-fifth of the world’s oil and one-third of liquefied natural gas pass through this strait. Today, that flow has come to a halt. The maritime front of this conflict is not just a battleground; it is also a space where operations transcend the war itself.

The importance of maritime control in geopolitics

In the study of geopolitics, controlling maritime spaces and straits has always been crucial. Numerous studies highlight that controlling so-called “choke points” is vital for a nation—both territorially and economically. Academic literature has also focused extensively on the inherent vulnerability of straits, which in a globalized and interdependent world represent a potential Achilles’ heel for international stability. If blocked, the consequences are enormous and affect everyone.

Iran and Hormuz

With a daily transit approaching 20 million barrels of crude oil, the Strait has historically been a limit few nations have dared to cross. Even during the “Tanker War” of the 1980s, amid the conflict between a newly revolutionary Iran and an Iraq recently led by Saddam Hussein, traffic was never fully interrupted. At that time, Iraq could rely on the East-West Pipeline, which cuts across the Arabian Peninsula, to bypass Hormuz and minimize damage. Tehran knew that closing the strait would mean economic suicide, as it was virtually the country’s only exit route for exports.

But in 2026, with Iran’s economy already severely impacted by sanctions, infrastructure damaged by allied raids, and a new, unstable leadership facing internal tensions, Tehran’s calculations have changed. Iran, one of OPEC’s largest oil producers, now appears willing to sacrifice its own maritime oil exports to strike the U.S. and Israel, even though roughly 90% of its crude exported overseas passes through Hormuz.

The “scorched earth” strategy pursued by Ayatollah Mojtaba and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has not stopped at deploying their fleet and sinking transiting tankers. They seem to be laying mines in the Strait, using Russian- and Chinese-made contact and magnetic devices, making Hormuz virtually impossible to navigate—even for Iranian vessels themselves. The IRGC Navy denies this, claiming that the strait is not militarily closed, only under total Iranian control.

Where the U.S. stands

Faced with the possibility of escorting tankers with American warships, the United States has shown caution, initially refusing, claiming they were “not ready.” The U.S. role, therefore, divides analysts.

One scenario envisions Washington engaged in a strategic game of patience and attrition: waiting for Iran’s self-imposed isolation to bleed the regime dry, bringing the country to internal collapse before global strategic oil reserves run out.

A second scenario suggests the U.S. could be caught off guard, unprepared for such a situation simply because it has never occurred before. This hypothesis is supported both by multiple sources within the White House and by the apparent technical shortcomings of the U.S. Navy. In January 2026, the Navy retired the last four Avenger-class minesweepers, intending to replace them with Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), faster and better equipped with MCM (Mine Countermeasures) systems, capable of clearing mines remotely via drones. However, sailors have nicknamed them “Little Crappy Ships” due to chronic reliability issues, and the class is still considered inefficient. Without real mine-clearing capabilities, the U.S. fleet remains paralyzed, only able to observe the presumed Iranian mines floating in the strait from afar.

Supporting the first and more likely thesis is the fact that U.S. warships are deployed both in the Gulf of Oman, where the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is stationed, and in the Persian Gulf, where the Fifth Fleet operates. These forces create a naval blockade whose main task is to wait and intercept any external supply attempts to Iran’s coast.

Naval deployments and allied presence

The Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman have effectively become a parking area for one of the largest naval strike forces in recent years. Besides the Abraham Lincoln, two other Carrier Strike Groups are moving toward the Middle East: the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS Gerald Ford, the largest warship ever built. The Trump administration has also announced that allied countries, including Japan, South Korea, France, and the United Kingdom, must deploy additional naval forces to support the already significant American presence.

Allied numerical superiority has already seen its first victories. The most symbolically important was the sinking of the frigate IRIS Dena, a pride of Iranian shipbuilding. The vessel was returning from a joint exercise in India, MILAN 2026, an event that included traditionally opposing navies, including the U.S. On its return, it was intercepted by U.S. forces, hit by torpedoes fired from a U.S. submarine, and sunk in international waters.

The risk for Tehran

The de facto closure of Hormuz is not only an act of war and does not concern only the military aspect of the newly opened conflict. Its repercussions are felt worldwide, and the global economic system could slip into a recession of unprecedented proportions. Tehran is playing a final, extremely risky card, primarily against itself. While the country currently finds an alternative route for crude exports toward China, with increasing Western military pressure on Hormuz and the nation’s infrastructure, and the alleged placement of mines in the strait by Tehran, Iran’s ability to send oil tankers will progressively decrease, risking economic and political implosion.

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