Climate with Trump leading the United States: a new global setback?

Climate with Trump leading the United States: a new global setback?

Translated by Irene Cecchi

The presidential elections on November 5th 2024 declared Donald Trump the winner and, at the same time, raised questions about the future of the global fight against climate change. The 306 votes for Trump, against the 232 raised by Kamala Harris, may mark a turning point not only for the US but for the whole world. In the international framework of the Baku COP29, the direction of the US climate policies is still crucial to determine the success or failure of these global efforts.

Trump’s approach to the fight against climate change

During his first mandate, Trump revealed his ambiguous positioning regarding climate change by pulling back from the Paris agreement and fostering the fossil industry. These actions were heavily criticised by the international community that considered the US one of the main actors in the fight against global warming. Trump going back in the White House in 2025 might push the situation even further, trying to evade even more environmental rules in order to foster internal production and protect American industries from what he considers to be a threat, like the “Green New Deal” suggested by the Democrats.

Trump’s Foreign policies based on isolationism may lead the US ever more far away from global environmental initiatives. During his first mandate, Trump pulled back from the Paris agreement and a second one may cause further distancing from any international cooperation, fostering energy protectionism and obstructing any green initiative. This way, the “Make America Great Again” rhetoric will obtain more support when backing fossil industry policies at the core of the US economic recovery.

The republicans also developed “Project 25”, a plan that involves significant cuts to those agencies fighting for the environment, especially the EPA and the Interiors Department. Trump declared his will to “get every unused funds back” from the Inflation Reduction Act. Even though 90% of these funds have been already used, there are still billions available and their reallocation may compromise the investments on green energy and delay the emission reduction in key sectors like electricity and transportation.

The effect on international relations and China’s response

Another central point of Trump policies is their possible effects on international relations. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement may drive other countries like China to take its place as global superpower. In fact, China has already started taking a leader position in the framework of green technologies, investing a lot on renewable energy and electric vehicles. This growth in the field, combined with its strong industrial capacity, can turn China into one of the main global actors in energy transition, a role that can be even more secured if the US will keep backing off from environmental agreements.

So, China might reinforce its geopolitical and energetic influence by strengthening its dominant position in the field of green energy and cooperation with developing countries. Nevertheless, such a scenario might increase the friction with the US and Trump, by his side, perceive it as a threat to American supremacy.

Furthermore, if the States decide to distance themselves even more from global climate policies, the consequences would be significant also for developing countries. In fact, many of these countries rely on international financing initiatives for green transition. The lack of a strong commitment of the US may slow down the global energetic transition, raising the costs for vulnerable economies and hindering the journey towards sustainable objectives accomplishment.

The future of climate change is uncertain and it will greatly depend on international actors’ policies, like the US and China's. The challenge for the next few years will be to find a balance between the advocacy of national economic interests and the impellent necessity to address climate change as a global threat.

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