The World in Transition: The Return of Multipolarism

Translated by Federico Emanuele

Since the end of the Second World War, we Westerners - especially those in Western Europe - have experienced extremely particular and almost unique political, economic, and military conditions. For the first time in history, Western European countries effectively became clientes of an external superpower, which, through a military alliance, cemented its hegemony over the continent, acting as a deterrent to both potential Soviet expansionism and the cyclical centrifugal movements within Europe itself. At the same time, still under the auspices and with the support of this external superpower, European countries embarked on a process of peaceful integration among themselves and experienced a new economic boom. Despite the challenges, the fruits of these processes resonated for decades, allowing new generations to forget about war as a legitimate means of resolving disputes. Decades of peace and relative economic prosperity cultivated the illusion of the "end of history" - an illusion that, in reality, rested on the overwhelming military superiority of the world's leading power, which first contained the Soviet competitor and then launched itself into a quasi-crusade of global revisionism, attempting to expand the spatial boundaries of the West itself.

Meanwhile, many of the so-called advocates of multipolarism now appear dismayed by the recent resurgence of violence that has erupted in the past few years. Perhaps too forgetful of historical memory, or guilty of excessive optimism, they believed that a new configuration of international geometries and hierarchies would bring greater harmony and a 'democratization' of international relations. Unfortunately, however, from the time of the Sumerian city-states to the end of the Second World War, multipolarism has consistently proven to be the most unstable system precisely because the number of actors competing for power and hegemony is higher. Aside from a few exceptional and fragile interludes, such as the one experienced by Europe between the Franco-Prussian War and the Great War, multipolar systems have almost always been characterized by greater and cyclical conflict. The various actors are constantly competing to contain each other's hegemonic ambitions while pursuing their own. In short, continuous attempts at mutual balancing unfold.

Economic or ideological interpretations can only partially explain the outbreak of conflict. Very often, war is in fact economically irrational—it brings deprivation, losses, and costs that far exceed the expectations of those who initiate it. Ideology may act as the fuel, but not the engine. In fact, ideology often serves as a tool of moral legitimization for one of the oldest human behaviors—particularly among politicians and states: the pursuit of power. As Hans Morgenthau reminds us in Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace:

“While politics is the pursuit of power, ideologies are the instruments used to make the actions taken to obtain it morally and psychologically acceptable in the eyes of those involved and those observing this process… Ideology is an excellent tool for justifying one’s own conduct while condemning that of others. It is far more effective at mobilizing people and the masses toward a certain foreign policy than openly admitting a desire for power.”

The unipolar era was destined to end, as it was materially unsustainable in the long run, despite the overwhelming technological, political, and military advantage enjoyed by the United States. The Pax Americana was, in fact, undermined by the hegemon itself, which, upon reaching the peak of the international system - like many historical predecessors - succumbed to hubris and fell victim to imperial overstretch, becoming entangled in numerous endless wars in an attempt to consolidate its global hegemony and reshape the world in its own image. To some extent, this distraction and resource drain benefited its competitors or its most ambitious and exuberant allies. Once strengthened, these actors, in turn, began to pursue their own hegemonic ambitions more forcefully - and, at times, ruthlessly. What we are now witnessing, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East, is the definitive collapse of the so-called rules-based order and the beginning of a zero-sum competition between the world's major and regional powers, who seize every opportunity to weaken their rivals and gain strategic advantages at their expense. Historical empirical evidence - from the 17th-century ‘religious’ wars to the 18th-century wars of succession, and the Napoleonic conflicts of the early 19th century - suggests that we should expect a further intensification of the struggle for power. In a multipolar world, states pursue power and security in increasingly reckless and violent ways, while the individuals leading them often fall victim to their own narcissistic instincts and quest for personal prestige, which they tend to conceal behind the banner of national interest - often at the cost of their own downfall.

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