Translated by Martina Ravasi
In an official statement released on Sunday, July 12th, the staff of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham announced his death at the age of 71 due to “a sudden illness”. Senator Graham was elected for four terms.
Graham was a US political veteran and his death leaves a great void in Washington, especially at the Capitol Hill, where he held one of the most important roles in the Republican Party.
Aged 71, Graham was an American war policy hawk, as well as Netanyahu’s great friend. He had just been elected as a South Carolinian senator again during the Republican primaries. He was first elected in 2003, when he replaced the centenarian senator Strom Thurmond, who had been in office since 1956. Lindsey Graham was a pillar of Washington policies, and not only politicians but also lobbyists and businessmen used to address to him for any issue. At the beginning he was critical towards Trump and was an exponent of the most moderated wig of the GOP. Additionally, Graham was close to the centrist McCain and Lieberman, but then he joined the Trump camp during his first administration, probably for his personal advantage rather than ideology. Moreover, Graham was a strongly pro-Israel, and he disagreed with Trump only on the Ukrainian war. The senator always defended Ukraine unconditionally so that on June 10th he spent his last birthday with Zelensky in Kiev. On that occasion, Graham told Zelensky he had received the green light from Trump for new sanctions against Russia.
Furthermore, Graham benefitted from a fast track within Donald Trump's inner circle. Indeed, the policies of the second Trump administration have been structured along two main lines. The first one is the "Big Beautiful Bill" – a robust public spending review aimed at reducing federal costs – and the fight against migrations. The latter was carried on thanks to robust funding for ICE, the federal agency responsible for border management.
However, there is an obstacle with both issues, which have always been at the core of the Trumpian rhetorics. In particular, rules stipulate that a majority of 60 seats at the Senate is required to have a new law approved and this majority can be adopted by the minority through a filibuster. This wouldn’t have allowed the Republican Party to meet their achievements, since they have a restrained majority of 52 seats. And it’s exactly now that Graham comes into play. Indeed, the 60-seat system provides a loophole created during the Nixon era: budget reconciliation. This tool can bypass the filibuster, allowing the Senate to pass legislation related to revenue, spending, and the public debt with a simple majority of 51 votes. To be used, budget reconciliation must be approved through an annual budget resolution that contains specific reconciliation instructions for the relevant committees. These instructions are inserted into the budget bill by the House and Senate Budget Committees. The latter was chaired by Graham himself, who was therefore a key piece for Trump in his strategy.
Consequently, Lindsey Graham leaves behind not only his discussed and controversial political legacy as well as his tight network of relations, but also a void in a Republican Senate seat held since 1956 and a key position in the American establishment. His positions won’t be vacant for a long time, since the scramble for them has already begun.
With regard to Graham’s vacant seat at the Senate, in a first phase the Governor of South Carolina, Henry McMaster, will appoint a temporary successor. Then, there will be special elections to nominate the definitive successor, although some local politicians are already stepping forward. The most creative one is Nancy Mace for sure, who finished third in the gubernatorial race in June. Following ritual condolences on X and several posts in memory of Graham, she published a clip of Michael Corleone, starred by Al Pacino in “The Godfather Part III” (1990) where he said:” Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in”, thus hinting at a possible run.
Regarding the other case, according to the Senate rules, Senators Chuck Grassley and Mike Crapo should be the first to replace Graham, since they’re the senior members of the committee. However, given that they lead other committees (Justice and Finance respectively), Graham’s seat should be given to senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. He’s another man close to Trump in Congress, accused on multiple occasions of fuelling conspiracy theories about Covid, vaccines and the assault on Capitol Hill on January 6th, 2021. His nomination must now be ratified by the Senate Republican Conference formally and then it will be approved within the Senate.
Graham’s death came up in a moment of great dynamicity for the American domestic politics, which is realigning ahead of the November midterm elections. These elections may confirm or shift the balance of power within the Congress, with direct consequences on the next two years of Trump’s presidency. Even in the Democratic party not everything is smooth sailing. Indeed, the Maine democratic candidate – Graham Platner – withdrew his candidacy following a highly controversial political campaign, which culminated in accusations of sexual harassment. The result was that he gave just two weeks to his party to choose another candidate for Maine to run in November.
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