Is There Really a Risk of a Coup in Russia?

There is a storm brewing at the Kremlin. A secret dossier from European intelligence reveals a state of high alert at the top levels in Moscow: Vladimir Putin has reportedly drastically changed his habits out of fear of a coup d'état or drone attacks.

Is Putin Trembling in the Kremlin? 

"No longer president of Russia by December 31, 2026?". On Polymarket, a global betting platform that allows people to wager money on the occurrence of future events, the "yes" is currently given a 12% chance of winning. The probability of his removal by the end of the year has been rising over the last few days.

According to a report from an European Intelligence Agency obtained by CNN, the Kremlin has drastically increased the personal security of President Vladimir Putin, installing surveillance systems in the homes of his closest aides. This is part of new measures adopted following a wave of assassinations of high-ranking Russian military officials and fears of a coup.

According to the dossier, chefs, bodyguards, and photographers working with the president are also banned from using public transport. Visitors to the Kremlin chief must undergo two separate security checks, and those who work closely with him can only use mobile phones without internet access.

According to the report, some of the measures were adopted after the killing of a senior general in December 2025, an event that sparked a dispute at the top of the Russian security apparatus. These measures suggest growing discontent within the Kremlin, which is facing increasingly pressing problems both at home and abroad, including economic difficulties, rising signs of dissent, and setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Russian security officials have reportedly drastically reduced the number of places Putin visits regularly. To bypass these restrictions, the Kremlin releases pre-recorded footage of him to the public.

Bets from the Future

"Polymarket allows you to receive news from the future." The US betting site operates like a stock exchange. However, instead of trading shares of companies, users trade "shares" on answers to specific questions: for example, "Who will win the next election?" or "Will Putin no longer be in the Kremlin by December 31, 2026?".

Polymarket serves as a social thermometer; it is now used by journalists and analysts as a source of information, since predictive markets involving real money are often more accurate than traditional polls. The price reflects the probability of the event in real-time. If a share costs $0.60, the market believes there is a 60% chance of the event occurring.

On Polymarket, the probability that Vladimir Putin will no longer be the tenant of the Kremlin by the end of the year costs 12 US cents, meaning a 12 percent chance.

'Risk of a Coup'

The report states that, since the beginning of March 2026, "the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin himself have been worried about the possible leak of sensitive information, as well as the risk of a plot or a coup attempt against the Russian president. He is particularly concerned about the use of drones for a possible attempt on his life by members of the Russian political elite."

Furthermore, since the start of the war, Kyiv has developed an arsenal of long-range drones capable of attacking targets hundreds of kilometers inside Russian borders. In May, a Ukrainian drone struck a residential skyscraper in a luxury neighborhood in the western part of central Moscow.

However, the most striking conclusion of the dossier concerns Sergei Shoigu, once a close ally of Putin. The former Minister of Defense, now Secretary of the Security Council, "is associated with the risk of a coup, as he retains significant influence within the military high command," the report states, sparking astonishment and skepticism among analysts who view Shoigu as unpopular.

Putin has already survived a previous coup attempt in June 2023, when mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin led a failed march on Moscow.


Unsustainable War 

"I think everything is moving toward the end of the war in Ukraine," the Russian president told reporters after the Victory Day parade on May 9. "We are open to American mediation," he concluded. Meanwhile, last Thursday, a Russian attack on Kyiv left 24 dead, including three children, and 47 injured: Moscow negotiates and attacks.

However, Russian casualties, estimated by Western nations at around 30,000 killed and wounded each month, combined with limited territorial progress on the front and repeated Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, have brought the toll of the conflict to a level that many believe is unsustainable.

The economic cost of the war is now tangible: internet outages, which regularly plague major cities, are irritating even the pro-Putin bourgeoisie, drawing the ire of Russian influencers. Added to this is the feeling that the war is beginning to affect the urban élite, who until now had been mostly insulated from the effects of the invasion.

Compounding the situation is the structural deterioration of the economy in the Russian Federation: there is a shortage of workers due to mobilization, the massive number of casualties and amputees at the front, and, above all, due to the Russian demographic crisis that has been underway for decades and has been aggravated by the war in Ukraine.

Now, the Kremlin needs a military victory to justify the war effort endured in recent years to the domestic audience. One last effort, the storm will soon be over—Putin seems to want to reassure the Russian people. In Russia, however, a pessimist is merely a well-informed optimist.

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