Artificial intelligence and economic growth: a winning combination

Translated by Andrea Solazzo

In 2017, the AlphaZero neural network, an artificial intelligence algorithm, defeated Stockfish, until then the most powerful chess programme in the world. This event represents a watershed in the history of technology and artificial intelligence: what, in fact, differentiated AlphaZero from other chess programmes was its approach to autonomous learning. While traditional chess programmes such as Stockfish were machines programmed by humans, AlphaZero operated completely autonomously, possessing as its only imparted goal that of maximising victories and learning strategies by itself.

AlphaZero's victory not only demonstrated the power and potential of machine learning, but also raised important issues and questions regarding the future use of these technologies. For the first time, a machine with artificial intelligence was able to surpass human analysis and programming capabilities, opening up new horizons for technological development, but also raising a number of questions about the implications of using these systems.

The use of AI-enabled systems today takes place in many areas of everyday life, from medicine to education, including governmental management, and strongly modifying the performance of economic activities and economic systems.

Especially at the economic level, there are numerous benefits that the use of modern AI technologies can bring. According to a study by Goldman Sachs, “Global economics analyst-The potentially large effect of artificial intelligence in economic growth”, the increase in labour productivity linked to the adoption of artificial intelligence over the next 10 years will lead to an increase in global GDP of 7% per annum, or approximately $7 trillion.

In particular, the use of AI-powered systems will increase labour cost savings, create new employment opportunities and increase worker productivity. Thanks to AI, workers will be able to perform fewer repetitive tasks and devote more time to occupations with greater added value.

As the report by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance on the impact of new AI models in the European Union also points out, not only are new AI models capable of performing complex tasks and learning new skills (machine learning), but their use can increase consumer access to information, reducing information asymmetries and increasing economic transactions. The report emphasises the important impact on productivity and output growth: new AI-enabled systems can lead to an increase not only in GDP per capita, but also in the rate of productivity growth through accelerated innovation.

While the benefits that AI can bring are high, there are also complications. Certainly, thanks to AI, workers will be able to perform fewer repetitive occupations and devote themselves more to occupations with higher added value. However, there will be distortions within the labour market, especially in the short term.

Indeed, the automation of many tasks will have a greater impact in professional occupations where many of the tasks now performed manually will become automated through the use of AI systems. Again, according to Goldman Sachs’ estimates, at a European level, 24% of tasks are likely to be automated by AI, while at a global level, the trend is around 18% automation.

While this in the short term will lead to a slowdown in the labour market and higher unemployment, in the long term, workers will find redeployment in new areas, more related to new technologies or even in new jobs generated by increased aggregate demand, as a consequence of productivity growth.

Finally, prudent regulation of industries and markets at the political level will also be important for sustaining long-term growth. The risk of monopolies in this sector on the part of the big “big data” companies, the future leaders in the field of AI, will require precise public regulation and legal frameworks aimed at guaranteeing not only the free market, but also a redistribution of wealth on a global level, also involving countries on the fringes of the economic circuit in the development of technology industries.

Only in this way can a global deployment of these intelligent systems be achieved, ensuring greater welfare and inclusive economic growth worldwide.

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