Ankara’s complex position: a diplomatic hub and a crisis' crossroads

Translated by Ramona Orefice 

On the 19th of April ended in Antalya, the fifth diplomatic forum hosted by Turkey, which brought together the Head of State of 20 countries and the representatives of more than 150 countries and International Organisations.

The annual topic of the Forum, "Mapping tomorrow, managing uncertainties", reaffirmed the Turkish's role in promoting international cooperation and dialogue as tools to resolve global conflicts and tensions, even in a Region currently at the centre of a conflict of global scope.

Launched in 2020 with the aim of promoting global diplomacy in a multipolar world where the role and importance of international cooperation are increasingly being diminished, the forum has also become one of the key events for reaffirming Turkey’s role as a middle power, and the mediating position the country seeks to assume between the West and the East, as well as in regional conflicts themselves.

Some of the event’s most relevant meetings involved representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan to discuss the current war being conducted by Israel and the United States against Iran, in an attempt to achieve a coordinated response and seek to avoid further destabilisation in the region, whilst also strengthening Egypt and Turkey’s support for Pakistan’s mediation efforts to secure a ceasefire.

Also central to the forum was the meeting of leaders of Muslim-majority countries to discuss the conflict in Palestine and the Gaza Peace Plan; the strategic position of Turkey has also made it possible to hold meetings relating to the peace processes between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the development of the important Trans-Caspian Corridor; Russian and Ukrainian ministers also attended the forum, once again enabling Turkey to position itself as a mediator in resolving the war that has now been ongoing for four years between the two European countries, and in which the Ankara government has been able to navigate the situation by leveraging its NATO Membership, its strategic relations with Moscow, and its interests in the Black Sea.

The Ankara's Strategy: balancing power and diplomacy 

In Turkish foreign policy, the diplomatic Forum in Antalya clearly represents Turkey's openness to international dialogue and cooperation, used to maintain and strengthen its influence in the Balkans and the Middle East, to which the country has historically been linked, but also to foster partnerships with new countries in more diverse geographical areas, attracted by Turkey's growing military industry.

The pragmatic opportunism and adaptability that characterized the 12 years of Erdoğan government have taken a very distinct direction since 2023, year of Hakan Fidan's inauguration as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Adoption of the Doctrine of the "Axis of Türkiye", which he promotes a foreign policy capable of allowing the country to move in a multipolar world, creating its own axis of alliances, capable of ranging from NATO to Russia, from Africa to China. The goal of this doctrine is to allow Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy and address the country's economic difficulties, emerging from the state of self-imposed isolation into which the country had found itself following the phase of "precious solitude", started in 2013 after the overthrow of the Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, close ally of Erdoğan, and was followed by a cooling of relations with the regime of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria and with the Israeli government, culminating in 2019 in the formation of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum: a regional organisation founded, among others, by Egypt and Israel, with the aim of hindering Turkey’s rise as the Mediterranean’s main energy hub.

The foreign policy promoted by Fidan had as its main cornerstone the repositioning of Turkey in the Middle Eastern region, and the increasingly significant construction of a mediating function carried out by the Country; while the latter aspect was particularly evident in the role played by the Turkish government in the Black Sea initiative, the reconstruction of relations with Middle Eastern countries has taken place mainly since 2021, through a normalisation of relations with Egypt, a gradual reconciliation with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and a reduction of pressure on Syria, which led President Erdoğan to fully recognise the authority of President Al-Sharaa in 2024.

The need to move forward with trade agreements has led the Ankara government to rebuild a more solid relationship with the Gulf states, whilst also encouraging the use of diplomatic rather than militaristic means, with the aim of maintaining a dominant position in the region through guarantees of security and peace, with the support of Washington, which views its NATO ally as a key partner for maintaining stability in the region – a factor that has so far helped to ease tensions between Israel and Turkey.

The constant mediation effort and the promotion of cooperation with regional actors carried out in Turkish foreign policy over the past few years has in fact had an important deterrent effect against possible escalation of existing tensions between Turkey and neighbouring countries; this deterrence, however, would not have been possible without the support of Turkey's growing military capabilities. Through the progressive development of its domestic war industry, Turkey has managed to become one of the world's largest arms exporters starting in 2021, becoming an essential military partner for Euro-Asian and African countries.

The consequences of the war

With the beginning of Israeli and US attacks on Iran on 28th February, Turkey found itself having to contain a potential escalation on its own territory, following the interception of several Iranian missiles in its airspace, also dealing with the significant economic consequences of the war on the Recovery Plan of the Turkish economy.

Even in the short term, the consequences of the war in Iran have led to the destabilization of Turkey's three largest Axis areas of influence: neighbouring countries, Turkic states (and Cyprus in particular), as well as Muslim-majority countries, which are central to Erdoğan’s pan-Islamic policy.

Despite the high-intensity scenario and the Turkey's condemnation of the attacks carried out by its rival Israel and United States, the Ankara's Government continues to emphasise the use of soft power and diplomatic mediation, particularly through international platforms such as the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, projecting the country’s stability and reliability onto the international stage, despite its geographical proximity to areas of conflict and major international tensions.

Although ongoing regional rivalries and crises unfolding on multiple fronts across the region, Turkey is actively maintaining its international standing by promoting cooperation and creating opportunities that are crucial to the evolution of the regional balance of power. At a time of high strategic uncertainty, Ankara’s role as a mediator and diplomatic platform could have a significant impact on future arrangements, particularly in relation to the developments and outcomes of the war in Iran. 

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