La crisi energetica di Taiwan tra dipendenza esterna e pressioni geopolitiche cinesi

Translated by Federica Conti

The war in the Middle East highlighted Taiwan’s energetic weakness. With its internal energy resources almost depleted, Taipei is entirely reliant on external energy sources. By 2025, the city had met 95% of its energy needs through imports of energy resources, especially oil and natural gas. Although Taiwan's economy has become less dependent on oil over the last two decades, its hydrocarbon use remains high compared with other economies worldwide. Furthermore, as oil use has decreased, natural gas has begun to play a central role in the island's energy system, increasing its dependence on external sources.

One of the main sources of these resources is the Middle East, which will account for the 70% of oil and the 38% of natural gas imported in 2025. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in response to US and Israeli attacks caused consequences to Taiwan's energy system, because the majority of its supplies were interrupted.

However, the government reassured public opinion, guaranteeing stockpiles for March and April. As the Ministry of International Affairs claimed, the country has adequate security stocks, and it is implementing emergency measures to guarantee stable energy supplies. Among these measures, there is the adoption of a diversified strategic approach, which will consent to import US gas from June and the implementation of a mitigation mechanism based on double prices in order to stabilise and check oil prices, guaranteeing that the consumer index list will not exceed the 2%.

In this context, Beijing took the chance to offer a guarantee for energy stability, claiming the availability to supply “stable and reliable energy and resource security” to "Taiwanese compatriots", so that they "might live better" with the support of a "strong motherland" as claimed by the spokesman of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Chen Binhu. According to Beijing, indeed, the removal of barriers between the two shores of the strait would guarantee a regular flux of resources and would facilitate the economic and social development of the island.

China, though, has a condition: Taipei must accept to follow the "rules of the motherland". The proposal is, therefore, subordinated to a peaceful reunification following the model "one country, two systems". China's intentions, indeed, never changed. Since the foundation of the ? People's Republic of China, Taiwan has been considered as a rebel region which must be joined to complete the process of national reunification started in 1949 after the end of the Civil War.

China's energy offer is, therefore, part of a wider strategy based on political and psychological pressure. In fact, Taipei's refusal is not a random choice because the plan of energy reunification is seen as part of cognitive warfare. The cognitive aspect is, indeed, a new dimension on which wars are fought, using instruments to influence people's perceptions and behaviours and to check the "hearts and minds". People's Republic of China, in this specific case, would use the energy problem to persist on benefits connected to a reunification with the motherland, while trying to amplify internal divisions in Taiwan.

On one hand, the party in power, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), supports the independence of the country; on the other hand, the opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), is interested in building friendly economic and diplomatic relationships with the People's Republic of China. In fact, on 10th April, the leader of KMT, Cheng Li-wun met Beijing's president Xi, becoming the first leader of the party to visit China in the last ten years. Cheng presented the event as a mission of peace, aiming at reducing the tension and creating a future in which Taiwan will no longer be a potential element of conflict, but a "symbol of peace". The visit caused controversies inside the Island: the administration of President Lai accuses Cheng of holding a pro-Chinese position, whereas the leader claims that tense relations with China would cause a huge risk.  

The energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East, therefore, highlighted how energy security is not just an issue of supplies and does not only represent structural vulnerability for Taiwan, but becomes a field of contention in a wider situation of geopolitical and political conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which will define Taiwan's future.

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