Kishida’s resignation and the race to lead Japan

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

On August 13th, Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), announced his intention not to run again for the party’s leadership, marking the end of his tenure. This decision sets the stage for an intense month of internal LDP electoral campaigning, during which key figures within the party will compete for both the party leadership and the position of Prime Minister.

Fumio Kishida, first elected to the House of Representative from Hiroshima in 1993, was appointed Prime Minister in October 2021 after holding several ministerial positions. Despite serving for less than three years, he ranks as the 8^th longest-serving Japanese Prime Minister in terms of overall time in office.

In the past few months, trust in the government has dropped dramatically, with approval ratings falling below 30%, due to inflation and numerous political scandals. One of the most sever scandals involved the connection between some members of the LDP and the cult to which the murderer of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe belonged. This scandal is also linked to a system of bribes within the party.

Moreover, the economic policy adopted by the government, aimed at revitalizing the post-pandemic productive system, was perceived as weak and shortsighted. Initially, the government’s program focused on wealth redistribution and reducing inequalities. However, in response to mistrust from financial markets, Kishida had to revert to a more traditional and less ambitious economic policy.

Domestically, Kishida’s term can be described as, at the very least, controversial. However, on the international stage, his resignation is viewed positively by many Western leaders, partly due to his previous experience as Minister of Foreign Affairs in Shinzo Abe’s cabinet.

During his first time in office, the outgoing Prime Minister achieved significant milestones. Among them were increasing the defense budget to nearly 2% of the GDP, enhancing national missile capabilities, and the historic publication of the National Security Strategy in 2022, which will guide Japan’s international conduct in the coming years.

Moreover, Kishida pursued strengthening the alliance with the United States, seeking greater integration between the two countries’ military forces and striving to develop an economic and technological partnership. The Japanese government also imposed sanctions on Russia and restricted semiconductor exports to China, in line with the U.S. policies.

The Prime Minister also worked to improve relationships with Sout Korea, despite the difficult history between the two countries, as evidenced by numerous meetings held with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. This effort also deepened the trilateral partnership with the United States, reaffirmed during the meeting between the three government at Camp Davis. Kishida also participated in a meeting between the United States and the Philippines, with the aim of reaffirming Japan’s support for the Manila government.

This is the legacy Fuimo Kishida leaves at the end of his term as leader of the LDP, and consequently, as Prime Minister. Currently, the Liberal Democratic Party holds the majority in both chambers of the Japanese parliament, and it seems unlikely that they will lose control in the upcoming 2025 elections. For this reason, the party’s primaries are crucial for determining Japan’s future trajectory, as they will decide the next prime minister.

The race for the leadership of LDP is expected to feature numerous participants, with around ten candidates. The most anticipated are Ishiba Shigeru, former LDP General Secretary and Minister of Defense, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the current Minister of the Environment. According to the latest polls, they appear to be the frontrunners; however, the unique selection procedure means the victory of other candidates cannot be ruled out.

Others who have announced their candidacy include Takayuki Kobayashi, former Minister for Economic Security, Taro Kono, minister for Digital Transformation, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary, and Toshimitsu Motegi, current LDP general secretary. In the coming days, we also expect an announcement from Sanae Takaichi, Minister for Economic Security. Additional candidates seeking support include former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, Foreign Affairs Minster Yoko Kamikawa, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ken Saito, and former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communication Seiko Noda.

In conclusion, despite the wide array for the leadership of the LDP, significant changes in Japan’s foreign policy are unlikely. With continuity both in the parliament and the ruling majority, as well as within the political establishment, it is probable that the approach established by Shinzo Abe and Fumio Kishida will continue. This includes maintaining the same strategies for international relations, national security, and strategic alliances. Key themes such as defense and security policies, the alliance with the United States, and managing relationships with China and South Korea will likely remain central to the government’s agenda.

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