Somalia between Ankara and Cairo: a mosaic of strategic partnerships inside a fragile scenario

Translated by Giulia Maffeis

In light of the military and maritime cooperation agreements signed in recent months, Turkey is increasing its operations and partnerships with Somalia, becoming a significantly influential player in the fragile Horn of Africa region.

The intensification of cooperation between Mogadishu and Ankara follows Ethiopia's recognition of the Republic of Somaliland in January 2024. As part of the memorandum signed between the two countries, Ethiopia recognized Somaliland in exchange for the right to use the port of Berbera and 20 km of coastline along the Gulf of Aden for 50 years, destined for commercial purposes and the construction of a naval base.

Mogadishu replied by making its already fifteen-year strategic partnership with Ankara stronger, and expressing total opposition to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, calling it a "threat to Somali sovereignty." The agreement, valid for  ten years, between Somalia and Turkey stipulates that Turkey will provide equipment and training to the Somali navy, along with cooperation in defence against piracy and maritime security, in exchange for 30% of the resources from Somalia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

With this move, Turkey is further reinforcing its geopolitical influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. In March, Ankara and Mogadishu signed another agreement in Istanbul related to energy cooperation: Somalia, wanting to boost its ability to exploit offshore oil reserves, turned to its key partner. It should be noted, however, that other American companies are already involved in certain sectors of Somali territorial waters. According to Agenzia Nova, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that Turkey has obtained licenses for three areas of Somali territorial waters, "each covering 5 square kilometres." According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Somali oil reserves could amount to 30 billion barrels.

Confirming the strength of bilateral relations, Turkey announced the deployment of warships to protect the Oruc Reis exploration ship, which will begin exploration operations in the licensed areas in October. Energy cooperation between Ankara and Mogadishu will follow a resource production and sharing model, with Turkey retaining the right to refine the extracted oil, paying royalties to Somalia, and collaborating in the export of the refined product. The benefits for Somalia, which continues to fight against Al-Shabab terrorism and rebels in its territories, would be significant, as the country has long wanted to deepen and accelerate exploration operations, which have remained stagnant since the 1990s.

However, Somalia is not only collaborating with Turkey. Egypt, long a rival of Ethiopia, especially concerning disputes related to the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile, is also playing a strong role in this scenario. Recently, Cairo, as reported by Reuters, sent a second shipment of arms to Mogadishu, particularly raising concerns, in Hargeisa. The foreign minister of Somaliland stated  "The uncontrolled proliferation of arms in an already fragile environment increases the risk of an arms race, with various factions likely seeking to acquire their arsenals to protect their interests." On the other hand, these moves have likely alerted countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kenya, and other East African states, which are closer to Ethiopia and potentially inclined to support Somaliland’s recognition.

Ultimately, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most complex and delicate geopolitical theatres, where the exnchange of economic, military, and political interests will continue to reshape balances and alliances in the short to medium term and in the coming years.