The European Elections 2024 and the future of the EU

Translated by Andrea Solazzo

Between 6 and 9 June, the citizens of the 27 EU Member States were called to go to the polls in order to elect new representatives to the European Parliament, marking the beginning of an important phase of institutional office renewal. This electoral round starts a complex selection process for the main EU top positions, which include the presidency of the European Commission, the European Council and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. On the 17^th of June, the leaders of the member states will gather for an informal meeting of the European Council, opening the negotiations for the distribution of the positions. This summit will mark the unofficial start of discussions with a dinner that could be a key moment for Ursula von der Leyen, current President of the Commission and candidate of the European People's Party (EPP) for a second term. Von der Leyen, supported by a pro-European majority consisting of the EPP, Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe, aims to confirm her role at the head of the EU executive. However, the configuration of the parliamentary groups remains uncertain, with the possibility of an opening for the Greens as well. His reconfirmation will depend on the support of the EPP, the Socialists, French President Emmanuel Macron and the non-opposition of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni. Complex dynamics arise in these situations: Charles Michel, President of the European Council may try to exclude von der Leyen from official discussions, despite his crucial role. EU executive spokesperson Arianna Podesta emphasised the importance of von der Leyen's presence in the negotiations, reflecting the tension between Michel and the Commission president. Therefore, during the 17 June summit, European leaders will have to consider the diversity of the EU in terms of geography, country area, gender and political affiliation. Moreover, even considering the political crises in France, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Belgium will influence decisions, the official European Council meeting, scheduled for 27 and 28 June, may already bring out a candidate for Commission president. The European Parliament will then see the official formation of the political groups from mid-June. The EPP will be the first to form on 18 June, followed by the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and, in early July, the far-right groups Identity and Democracy (ID) and Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The solidity of the majority will be tested in the first plenary session of the new European Parliament, between 16 and 19 July in Strasbourg, when the president of the Parliament will be elected. Roberta Metsola, President of the Parliament, has already convoked the Conference of Presidents to discuss the election results and form a majority based on a political programme for the next five years.

The decisive moment for von der Leyen's confirmation will come at the end of the summer, from 16 to 19 September, when the Parliament will vote on the Commission presidency candidate proposed by the European Council. If the candidate does not gain confidence, the Council will have a month to propose a new name. If everything goes well, between October and November the European Parliament will evaluate the commissioner candidates proposed by the national governments. Although the Parliament cannot formally reject the candidates, a negative vote would have a strong political impact. Subsequently, the nomination of commissioners will be approved en masse during a plenary session in November, with the President of the European Council taking office on 1 December of the election year.

On the Italian electoral scene, Brothers of Italy confirmed the forecasts of the last European elections, emerging as the most voted party with 28.8% of consensus. The party led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni improved on the result of the previous political elections, recording an important victory despite the low turnout of voters, which saw only 49.7% of voters, compared to 64% in the political elections. On the second step of the podium was the Democratic Party with 24.1% of the vote. PD leader Elly Schlein celebrated the party's "extraordinary results", which improved on the psychological result of 19.1% obtained two years ago. However, the 5 Star Movement suffered a major setback, stopping at 10% compared to the 16% indicated by pre-election polls. Forza Italia, allied with Noi Moderati, obtained 9.6%, passing Matteo Salvini's League, which reached 9%. Nevertheless, Salvini expressed satisfaction with the election of General Vannacci, despite League founder Umberto Bossi's explicit preference for Forza Italia. The centre-right coalition was thus confirmed to be solid, with Brothers of Italy that will have a significant influence in the European Parliament, while the Italian Prime Minister will play a key role in shaping alliances in the European Parliament's headquarters.

Among the other political forces, Greens and Left Alliance exceeded expectations, obtaining 6.65% and guaranteeing a seat to Ilaria Salis, an Italian citizen arrested in Hungary, at the centre of much media and political controversy. The lists “United States of Europe” and “Action”, at 3.8% and 3.4% respectively, failed to pass the 4 per cent threshold, and thus will not elect MEPs. The lists 'Peace Land Dignity' and 'Freedom' obtained 2.2% and 1.2% respectively, also without the possibility of electing representatives. The Südtiroler Volkspartei, with 0.5%, will elect one MEP thanks to the 50,000 votes required for linguistic minority parties. Finally, Stefano Bandecchi with Popular Alternative only reached 0.4%.

The result of these elections not only consolidates the position of Brothers of Italy, but also Giorgia Meloni's role in the European context. Although the numbers confirm popular support for the PM, the high abstentionism both shows and hides a worrying popular feeling of distance from domestic and international politics.

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