Translated by Jennifer Di Giacomo
Tensions between Cuba and the United States: the origins
It is well known that relations between the United States and Latin American countries have historically been shaped by the famous Monroe Doctrine, promoted by the U.S. president of the same name. According to this doctrine, all matters concerning the continent fell under U.S. jurisdiction, and any external influence would not be tolerated.
The case of Cuba—formerly a Spanish colony that became an independent state in 1898 following victory over the colonial power—is well known for its relations with the United States, which became extremely hostile during the Cold War, especially after the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. This event represented a major escalation of the Cold War, triggered by the U.S. discovery of the installation of Soviet medium-range missiles on the island of Cuba. Given the island’s extreme proximity, these missiles would have been capable of striking the American coastline. This development was made possible by Cuban President Fidel Castro’s rapprochement with the Soviet Union under Nikita Khrushchev following the Cuban Revolution.
In response, President John F. Kennedy imposed a naval quarantine on the island and demanded the withdrawal of the nuclear weapons, while humanity prepared for the real risk of a nuclear war between superpowers. Thanks to intense diplomatic activity, the Soviet Union ultimately decided to withdraw the missiles, while the United States, in return, pledged not to invade the island. This event is remembered as the closest moment to nuclear war in modern history and had the positive outcome of leading to the creation of the “Red Telephone” between Washington and Moscow to prevent future communication errors, paving the way for subsequent arms control agreements.
Nevertheless, relations between Cuba and the United States have remained highly strained in the years that followed. From that year onward, Cuba was subjected to an embargo imposed by the United States. Although the Cold War had ended and Cuba had ceased to be a Soviet outpost in Latin America, the communist regime survived and continued under Fidel Castro’s brother, Raúl, thus remaining a source of populist inspiration for Latin American peoples.
The situation has worsened significantly since Donald Trump’s first presidency, during which the economic embargo was made more stringent. More recently, from the beginning of his second presidency, the tycoon established the application of the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”—a play on words combining the name and surname of President Monroe—reaffirming the intention to achieve supremacy over the American continent. Indeed, after months of tension, on January 2nd 2026, Trump captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This event brought many tensions across the entire Latin American continent back to the surface, including those involving Cuba.
The link between Cuba and Venezuela
Cuba is a country that, unlike others in the region, pursues a strategic orientation and a foreign policy independent from that of the United States. Moreover, it is characterized by a fairly solid political class, making it rather difficult to invade. Indeed, it has forged relations with many countries’ hostile to the U.S. establishment, including Mexico, Colombia, and above all Venezuela.
As early as October 30th 2000, Havana and Caracas signed a cooperation agreement (Convenio Integral de Cooperación), which provided for the supply of oil in exchange for the dispatch of experts in various sectors related to health and education. This agreement laid the foundation for a long-term bond, symbolically represented by the creation in 2004 of a true multilateral organization known as the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA). All of this made it possible, in subsequent years, to establish a strong relationship that generated further agreements, whose recurring themes included oil and energy in exchange for medical personnel, education and training, as well as industrial and technological development.
The possible consequences of the Cuban–Venezuelan axis in the eyes of the United States
“Cuba has been supported for years by large amounts of oil and money coming from Venezuela. In exchange, it has provided security services to the last two Venezuelan dictators. But now it’s all over!” Trump declared on Truth Social.
Eight days after Maduro’s arrest—whose protection cost the lives of around thirty Cubans—Trump targeted all countries historically allied with Venezuela, including Cuba.
To the aforementioned statement, he added that “No more oil and money will reach Cuba. Zero!” urging the country to “make a deal before it’s too late,” and provoking the indignation of Cuban President Díaz-Canel, who stated on X that his nation is “ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood.” Díaz-Canel also added that “Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation,” emphasizing the deep sense of independence that unites the Cuban people.
In light of all this, President Trump hinted that he is willing to reach an agreement with Havana, since he believes that a military action, in addition to being costly, would not even be useful, as Cuba might risk collapsing on its own without being able to rely on Venezuelan support.
Indeed, over the past ten years, about 2 million Cubans have left the island, further exacerbating the weakness of the economic and social system.
Now all that remains is to wait and see how Trump’s threats will materialize.
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