The EU Sets a 90% Emissions Reduction Target by 2040: Green Ambition or Impossible Challenge?

Translated by Federico Emanuele

The European Union has reached a major climate agreement as environment ministers of the 27 member states approved a binding target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. This milestone represents a crucial step toward climate neutrality by 2050 while opening a phase of unprecedented economic, technological, and political challenges.

The deal, finalized on November 5 after lengthy negotiations, amends the European Climate Law, the legislative foundation of the Green Deal. With this new intermediate goal, Brussels intends to send a clear signal of determination and consistency ahead of COP30, the global climate summit to be held in Brazil in 2025.

“Europe stays the course. With this agreement, we make it clear that the green transition is irreversible, but it will also be fair and inclusive,” said European Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra, adding that the 90 percent reduction “is consistent with science and with the commitment made in Paris.”

The agreement also includes an intermediate target for 2035, setting the reduction between 66.25% and 72.5%.

Behind these figures lies a complex political scenario. Not all member states are moving at the same pace. Poland, Bulgaria, and Hungary, still heavily dependent on coal, have raised concerns about the cost of the energy transition and called for more time and additional financial support.

The debate remains open in Italy as well. Environment Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin described the new European goal as “consistent with the direction already taken,” but underlined the need to “preserve business competitiveness and accompany the transition with concrete investments, not only with regulations.”

Environmental organizations, on the other hand, are calling for stronger action. Greenpeace described the agreement as “a step in the right direction” but insufficient to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Silvia Pastorelli, Greenpeace EU spokesperson, warned that “without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and a stronger plan for methane and agriculture, the 90 percent target risks remaining only a number on paper.”

Meeting the new goal will require a transformation of almost every sector of the European economy. The transport sector must complete its transition to electric and renewable fuels, heavy industry will have to rely on carbon capture and storage technologies, and agriculture will need to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

According to the European Commission, more than 500 billion euros in annual public and private investment will be needed to secure a sustainable transition. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that “the Green Deal is also an industrial strategy” and that Europe “must not choose between the environment and growth but demonstrate that both can go together.”

The European Union also plans to strengthen existing instruments such as the Emissions Trading System, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and the Just Transition Fund, which is designed to support regions most exposed to the impact of change.

On the geopolitical front, the European agreement comes at a time when the United States and China are showing delays and uncertainty in their climate commitments. Brussels aims to reaffirm its moral and diplomatic leadership, aware that maintaining internal consistency will be the true test.[1]

The path to 2040 will be long and complex, but if the agreement translates into concrete policies, it could mark the beginning of a new chapter for the Union, one where climate ambition becomes a driver of innovation, social equity, and energy sovereignty.

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