Mexico, towards June's elections

Translated by Giulia Maffeis

Introduction

The year 2024 is and will be an election year worldwide, with an electoral tour that began in Taiwan and awaits eagerly June's European elections and presidential elections in the United States in November. The new government's polarisation in Central and South America is reshaping the geopolitical landscape and is, once again, disrupting global balances. The spotlight is currently on a country that plays a key role in Latin America.

Less than a month before the presidential elections in Mexico, scheduled for June 2, 2024, all attention is focused on women's presence in politics, given by the two candidates running for the title. One of the most markedly macho countries in the continent, we're about to witness a historic event: for the first time since the country's independence, a woman will hold the highest office in the country. Whoever wins will not only become the next President of Mexico for six years, but will also hold crucial roles such as Head of the Federal Executive, Commander of the Armed Forces, and will appoint a new judge to the Supreme Court of Justice.

As stated by the Mexican Constitution, the outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador cannot run for the next term. Obrador himself has strongly supported Claudia Sheinbaum, a member of his left-wing party "Morena" and former mayor of Mexico City. On the other side, the coalition of the conservative party "PAN" has chosen Xóchitl Gálvez, a senator since 2018, who is running as an independent candidate.

It is expected that nearly 99 million citizens will cast their vote to elect over 20,000 local and state officials and members of Congress, in addition to the presidency of the country.

Foreign policy and diplomatic relations

In recent times, diplomatic tensions with Ecuador have dominated Mexican headlines. Ecuadorian police's recent raid on the Mexican embassy, where former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas had sought refuge, has led to the rupture of diplomatic relations between the two countries, with Obrador describing the Ecuadorian action as "a violation of international law and Mexican sovereignty."

Concerning foreign policy, Mexico seems oriented to strengthen ties with the "global south," particularly with countries in Central and South America, marking a shift from its traditional neutrality and interdependence with the United States. In 1930, Mexico presented the so-called Estrada Doctrine to the League of Nations, according to which a state should not interfere with or judge the governments of foreign states, based on principles of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries and self-determination of the people. Despite condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has not expressed positive opinions on NATO intervention.

In an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, in September 2023, Mexico participated once again in G-77, a group previously known as the Non-Aligned Movement, from which it had withdrawn in 1994 to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), predominantly Western.

Who are the two candidates?

The electoral competition sees two prominent figures,  representing Mexico's most important parties. Claudia Sheinbaum, seen as Obrador's political heir, and Xóchitl Gálvez, who's proposing an alternative vision to Obrador's political line, emphasizing the importance of security in fighting against organized crime.

Claudia Sheinbaum is the flagship of the outgoing president's party: as head of the government of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023, Sheinbaum holds a PhD in energy engineering and has written over 100 articles and books on energy, environment, and sustainable development. She promises to continue Obrador's political agenda, consolidating infrastructure and social welfare projects, as well as giving the military a central role in political and economic matters.

The right-wing coalition relies on Xóchitl Gálvez, a senator with indigenous origins, which she proudly claims. With a remarkable professional background, Gálvez is an entrepreneur, a robotics engineer and belongs to the Otomi tribe, which she emphasizes by wearing the huipil, a typical embroidered Mexican garment. Her proposal wants to channel the efforts of the military towards combating organized crime, in a country where drug trafficking and corruption are commonplace, and are one of the main issues impacting Mexican politics, national security becomes a priority.

Claudia Sheinbaum is the favoured candidate in the polls. The popularity of the outgoing president's party is such that it has led to the union of the opposition, which will support Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate of "Fuerza y Corazón por México" (Strength and Courage for Mexico), a coalition that brings together all the traditional Mexican parties: PRI(Partido Revolucionario Institucional), PAN (Partido Acción Nacional) and PRD (Partido de la Revolución Democrática).

With elections coming closer, it remains to be seen which of the two candidates will win the favour of the voters. The hope is to have a government that will address the economic and social challenges that Mexico faces, especially due to the increasingly powerful influence of drug trafficking in politics.

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