Nawrocki Leads Poland: Internal Political Struggles and a Shifting Global Role

The victory in the presidential elections of Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate supported by the right-wing populist party Prawo i Sprawiedliwość ("Law and Justice"), has caused considerable turmoil within the Polish government, pushing Prime Minister Donald Tusk to request a vote of confidence from Parliament for his cabinet, following the electoral defeat of candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, a pro-European politician backed by Tusk’s party.

Although Tusk and his government were reaffirmed through the confidence vote, a difficult political season lies ahead for the former President of the European Council: over the next two years, until the 2027 parliamentary elections, he will have to negotiate with the Catholic and conservative Nawrocki, who, as President, has the power not only to propose laws but also to veto those put forward by Tusk’s government. Nawrocki has already declared himself ready to use his veto authority to block any legislation that could alter national identity or reduce the country’s sovereignty, with particular reference to migration policies, LGBTQ+ rights, and relations with the European Union. Nawrocki’s sovereigntist stance puts him in direct opposition to both Tusk’s government and the EU, and during his electoral campaign he already stated his intention to prevent Poland from joining the eurozone, in order to safeguard the nation’s political and economic sovereignty.

Tusk’s political agenda, which envisions aligning Poland with European directives, particularly in the areas of civil rights, the integrity of the judicial system, and environmental protection, could therefore face a significant slowdown. This comes after recent progress made by the sitting government to unlock nearly €60 billion in funds from the Next Generation EU plan and a further €77 billion from the European cohesion fund, which had been frozen by the European Commission until 2024 due to concerns over judicial independence following reforms introduced by the previous government, led by Law and Justice.

However, an agreement between the government and the president could be reached in the field of defense. Nawrocki supports the ongoing policy of military investment, aimed at ensuring the country’s security and strengthening its strategic role within NATO. Poland, which spends 4.1% of its GDP on defense, is in fact the member state closest to the 5% target set during the NATO summit in The Hague last June, strongly advocated by Donald Trump. With Nawrocki’s presidency, ties between Warsaw and Washington could also deepen further, given the Polish President’s great admiration for his U.S. counterpart, from whom he received an endorsement last May during a visit to the White House at Trump’s invitation.

Nawrocki’s election, however, could also have future repercussions on Poland’s policy within NATO, particularly concerning the issue of Ukraine. Trump’s complicated stance toward President Zelenskyy has legitimized the expression of not fully pro-Ukrainian positions by other politicians as well, allowing Nawrocki to capitalize on disputes between Ukraine and Poland during his campaign.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022, Poland has been one of the European countries contributing the most in financial aid to Ukraine, and by 2025 it has hosted over 990,000 Ukrainian refugees. Nawrocki himself is strongly in favor of continuing the war effort against Russia, and his openly anti-Soviet position has led the Russian Interior Ministry to place him on a list of individuals wanted as enemies of the regime. However, what may be at risk under Nawrocki is Poland’s unconditional support for Kyiv: for the President, Ukraine’s entry into NATO and the European Union is conditional upon resolving certain disputes with Poland, both economic and historical-diplomatic in nature, such as the Volhynia massacre os Poles. These issues had been temporarily set aside due to the outbreak of war with Russia, but Nawrocki, a historian specializing in the post–World War II era and an expert in Polish-Ukrainian relations, brought them back to the center of political debate, particularly to reinforce his nationalist rhetoric during the campaign. Concerns over the competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural products in European markets and demands for justice for Polish victims of Ukrainian nationalist forces won him the votes of the right-wing electorate, especially fueled by mounting dissatisfaction over the number of refugees in Poland; the consequences on Polish foreign policy, however, could be significant.

The political balance in the country thus takes on strategic importance well beyond its national borders, especially considering its closer relations with the White House and the potential impact these could have on decisions made in Brussels. The dynamic between President Nawrocki and Tusk’s government will determine not only Poland’s internal trajectory but also its ability to influence European dynamics, support for Kyiv, and Warsaw’s role within NATO. At a time when new negotiations for peace between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump seem to be taking shape, Poland’s stance could decisively affect the continent’s security framework, particularly with regard to the future development of European defense. Poland, as a bridge between the European Union and the eastern front, therefore remains an essential player for understanding the future political and military balance in Europe.

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