Nord Stream 1: geopolitics of a pipeline at sunset

 Translated by Giulia Maffeis
 
The pipeline is a geopolitical instrument: it sets the stage for conflicts, such as the one between the West and Russia, and it strengthens alliances, like the historic Germany-Russia one. 

For multiple years, the  Nord Stream pipeline has been a central point of tension between the West and Russia. This energy corridor,  which transformed Germany into a  Russian gas hub, has transported billions of cubic meters of gas annually, bypassing the Bastic States, Ukraine and Belarus.  This flow has strengthened ties between Berlin and Moscow, raising concerns among the United States and eastern NATO members. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further exacerbated the tensions.

 Nord Stream's history begins in 1997 with the collaboration between Gazprom and the Finnish Neste, funded to build a pipeline from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. After years of feasibility studies and various corporate participations, the North European Gas Pipeline Company was founded in 2005, which became Nord Stream AG in 2006, taking over the project. 

The year 2011 saw the  pipeline's inauguration in the presence of the most important heads of state, led by Angela Merkel and Dmitry Medvedev, marking a new chapter in energy relations between Europe and Russia and raising concerns in the United States and Eastern European countries.

Nord Stream 1, with two parallel lines, connects Vyborg (Russia) to Greifswald (Germany), avoiding the complicated passages through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. This offshore line has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas. Once in Germany, the gas enters the European network through the Opal and Nel pipelines, making Germany a crucial centre in the distribution of Russian gas in Europe. 

In 2011, Nord Stream shareholders decided to double the pipeline's capacity. Despite European sanctions on Gazprom after the annexation of Crimea, in 2015 an agreement was signed between Gazprom and other European companies in order to construct two new lines, bringing the total capacity to 110 billion cubic meters per year.

 
 However, the Nord Stream 2 project saw numerous oppositions. Poland, the Baltic countries, and the United States saw the doubling as a threat to European energy security and a strengthening of the Moscow-Berlin relationship. Despite these resistances, work continued until 2021, when Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended the pipeline's certification in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Nord Stream 2, with its 200,000 steel and concrete pipes, follows a similar path to the first pipeline but starts from the Slavyanskaya compressor station near St. Petersburg. It crosses Finnish, Swedish, Danish, and German waters, ending in Lubmin, Germany. The construction of these lines faced strong opposition from various countries and the United States, concerned about Europe's growing dependence on Russian gas. 

Ukraine and other Central and Eastern European countries also showed fears of losing transit fees from Russian gas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Nord Stream 2 a threat, predicting a loss of €1.7 billion per year for Ukraine.

But war positioning must be respected, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the context. The USA and its European allies decided to block the Nord Stream 2 project in response to Russian actions. Victoria Nuland, US Under Secretary of State until March 2024, stated that Nord Stream 2 is now "dead," making it just a "big piece of metal at the bottom of the sea."

On September 26, 2022, some underwater explosions hit Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, causing gas leaks near the Danish island of Bornholm. Even though the exact causes have not yet been found and confirmed by experts, Swedish and Russian authorities have spoken of sabotage. Moscow accused NATO forces, while the Western side theorised a Soviet-style self-sabotage. The current investigations have not definitively identified the perpetrators. 

China has called for a bigger international investigation, while the EU and the United States have denied all involvement.

Nord Stream, a giant coming closer to its twilight phase, represents a key element in European energy geopolitics, symbolizing the complex relationship between Russia and the West. The Nord Stream 2 project, conceived to double the gas transport capacity of the Federation, has sparked significant opposition and was ultimately blocked due to the invasion of Ukraine. But the 2022 explosions opened an unprecedented scenario of hybrid warfare, further distancing Europe from Moscow's taps, which is engaged along the path of new gas alliances.

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