Russia and Europe Drive Global Military Spending: A Return to Confrontation Logic

In 2024, global defense spending reached a new record. From Ukraine to the Baltics, through the Sahel and the Black Sea, the global order is being reshaped by the logic of arms.

Articoli (Articles)
Eleonora Strano
14 May 2025
4 minutes, 20 seconds

Translated by Federico Emanuele

Global military spending reached a new historic record in 2024: over 2,400 billion dollars, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). An increase of 6.8% compared to the previous year, the most marked since 2009. But it's not just the figure that is impressive: it's the geography of rearmament that signals an ongoing transformation. At the center of this acceleration, we find Russia and Europe: the former engaged in an open war, the latter shaken by the return of conflict to the heart of the continent. The domino effect of the war in Ukraine has triggered a profound change in the strategic priorities, industrial structures, and geopolitical identities of the powers involved.

Russia: the war economy as the new normal

Russia is now a structural military power. According to SIPRI, in 2023 it spent 109 billion dollars on defense, equal to 6.6% of its GDP: one of the highest percentages in the world, triple the European average. The increase is staggering: +57% in one year, +105% compared to 2021. An enormous share of resources is destined for the Ukrainian front, but also for military projection in less visible theaters: from Georgia to Transnistria, from Syria to the Sahel. But there's more: military spending has become a driving force for the Russian economy, fueling public employment, war production, technological investments, and growing strategic autarky. War is no longer just an emergency: it is an economic and political paradigm.

Europe awakens: from a civil power to an armed power?

On the other side of the front, the European Union has abandoned the long-held illusion of the "end of history." After decades of progressive disarmament, many member states have embarked on an opposite path: that of massive rearmament. In 2023, European military spending grew by an average of 16%. Some symbolic cases:

Germany: has created a special fund of 100 billion euros to modernize the Bundeswehr;
Poland: has reached 4% of GDP in military spending, the highest share in Europe;
Finland and Sweden: having joined NATO, are investing over 2% of GDP;
France and Italy: are increasing funds for cybersecurity, space, drones, and conventional armaments.

It is not just about reacting to Russian aggression, but about redefining Europe's strategic role in the new global disorder.

NATO and the 2% target

Behind this trend is growing pressure from NATO, which for years has been urging allies to bring military spending to 2% of GDP. Until 2022, only a few countries met this threshold (USA, Greece, United Kingdom, Poland). Today, over 18 member states have committed to reaching it by 2025. Underlying this change is the awareness that the American umbrella is no longer guaranteed. The withdrawal of the USA from some global theaters - and the potential re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency - reinforce the urgency of building autonomous deterrence capabilities.

European defense: cooperation or fragmentation?

Yet, European rearmament risks being more competitive than cooperative. Armies remain national, armament programs are often duplicated, and the defense industry is highly fragmented. The European Commission has launched some initiatives, such as EDIP (European Defence Industrial Programme), but the road to a common defense is still long and uncertain. Without a unified strategy, Europe risks building more weapons than security.

A return to East-West logic?

Perhaps the most disturbing fact is the mirror symmetry between Moscow and Brussels. Russia justifies its militarization with NATO expansion and support for Ukraine. Europe, in turn, justifies its rearmament with Russian aggressiveness and the danger to its eastern borders. It is the classic dynamic of the security dilemma: each increase in defense on one side is perceived as a threat by the other, triggering a spiral of mutual rearmament. This is what happened during the Cold War - and it is what could be repeated today, in an even more unstable and fragmented context.

What security can arise from an arms race?

Ultimately, the global arms race poses a fundamental question: can shared security exist in a world that is arming itself more and more? Russia militarizes to resist the West. Europe, after years of "post-historical peace," rediscovers the need to defend itself. But without a common political vision, without a culture of cooperative security, the risk is that of entering a new age of permanent confrontation, where military spending becomes an end in itself. Defending oneself is legitimate. But when fear becomes the driver of politics, the consequences can be tragic.

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