Syria: a new phase of the conflict (?)

Translated by Irene Cecchi

After a two years truce, the conflict in Syria fires up again with a new offensive by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group opposing the Assad regime and that includes different military groups and both Salafis and Jihadis.

Let’s delve into the implications and questions of a conflict that has been going on for more than a decade and that left behind a destroyed country, divided into numerous areas of influence.

The political and strategic framework: a fragmented Country

Before focusing on the possible future scenarios, we have to recapitulate the political and military situation of the Country after the 2022 crystallization.

There are four main local actors who benefit from different direct or indirect external support.

The Syrian government, under BAshar Al Assad, as control over the South, the middle and the Mediterranean coast of the Country, mostly thanks to Hezbollah, to the pro-Iran military groups and mostly thanks to Russia, who actually controls it. After a long lasting and distressing civil war against ISIS, Assad managed to re-establish diplomatic relations with the two Gulf monarchies that supported rebel groups at the beginning: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The relations with Ankara, instead, are still uncertain due to the Turkish occupation of a portion of land in Northern Syria. In the meantime, Syria also became one of the main captagon producers and dealers, a very strong drug.

Them there are the Syrian Democratic Forces from Rojava, that control the territory east to Assad lake and the Euphrates river, except one little slice of land at the North that is under the National Army. The Rojava region is practically independent from the central government and the Army is in tight relations with the PKK, a paramilitary Kurdish group that the US and EU consider a terrorist organization. Even if the group is mainly made up of Kurdish people, there are also some Arabs and Christians. The SDF benefit from Washington support that funded them during their war against ISIS and that are now in charge of the jails of the old Islamic State. The relations with the central power are not properly hostile but still they are not reconciled, also because Syrian Kurds want to keep the independence they fought for.

Another actor is the Syrian National Army, a proper puppet in Ankara hands that put together various jihadi and mercenary groups to work as a buffer at the Northern border of the Country. These people are like cannon fodder for Ankara, just like it happened in the conflicts in the Caucasus and Northern Africa.

Lastly, there is HTS, that was called Jabhat al-Nusra until 2016 and that is now the main actor opposing Assad politically and militarily. HTS control the Idlib governorate, at the border with Turkey. It’s characterized by radical positions, even if they distanced themselves from Al Qaeda it doesn't mean they are any more moderate. Despite having more independence than the National Army, they still have tight relations with Ankara, especially after the 2020 government’s offensive on Idlib when Turkish troops intervened to help protect the area from the dictator attack.

The HTS offensive

After a bombing by the Syrian Army, HTS decided to answer back and start an offensive. In a few hours the army outposts and Iran armed groups were defeated, probably because the governmental army still had to recover from the civil war efforts. The HTS leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, might have considered it effective to attack right at that moment when all the main allies of Assad are involved in some other conflict. Moscow is stuck in an attrition war in Ukraine and Hezbollah is crushed by Israel. The HTS forces already reached the strategic M5 highway. In order to evaluate the future of the operations it’s fundamental to keep an eye on Assad counter attack and the possible intervention of the SNA backing the HTS. The SNA aims to win over the SDF in Tal Rifaat while HTS took control of Aleppo after sweeping out the government army and its allied forces. During the offensive, some army generals were killed and an Iranian pasdaran too.

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