Tigray, pace al capolinea: l'Etiopia verso una nuova guerra con i civili nel mirino

Translated by Federica Conti

“If war arises again, I think the situation will be even more severe than before" claims Berehe, a 37 years old man, working as a tour guide in the Northern region of Tigray in Ethiopia. In Mekele, the regional capital, there is a fragile calm due to the intensification of the climate of tension between Tigray's and Addis Abeba's authorities, therefore there is the the risk of facing a renewed conflict after the fragile peace deal signed in November 2022 in Pretoria with the mediation of the African Union. Since January 2026, Tigray is preparing itself to face a new conflict after accusing Ethiopian federal authorities of violeting the peace deal launching drones strikes, that caused a heavy tension between the two parties, increasing the risk of an escalation.

A peace that does not pacify

The Tigray war, lasted from November 2020 to November 2022, fought between Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a non-governmental and armed group, has never really ended, not even after the signature of the peace deal in 2022. This conflict has begun as a civil war and, later, has become an “internationalized intrastate war”, namely it involved the participation of international parties such as Eritrea. Eritrea supported the Ethiopian army since the beginning of the war because the State considered the TPLF its own enemy, thus supporting TPLF's weakening in Ethiopia was a strategic goal. 

The peace deal of Pretoria signed in 2022, which formally put an end to the hostilities, forsaw the disarmament and reintegration of fighters and the restoration of constitutional order in Tigray, the removal of the TPLF from the list of terrorist organizations, and their involvement in Ethiopian politics, and the humanitarian acces in the region in order to guarantee people's protection. This peace deal proved to be weak because the war left profound wounds, generating mutual distrust among the parties in persuing a convincing process of peace, causing negative effects on the process of disarmament as well; in fact, there were still local armed militias  and unresolved territorial and political disputes, which meant that weapons were still present on the ground and there was a risk of further escalation. Another reason was also the absence of a neutral and strong international organization who could supervise the peace deal and avoid the outbreak of a new conflict. 

Siege, violence and ethnic cleansing

Recent events in Tigray had heavy consequences for Ethiopian civilians: the tour guide Berehe is concerned about losing income whereas Tigray's farmers fear the conflict because recently the supply chain was interrupted: “There’s no fuel for my irrigation pumps, there’s no fertilizer and there’s barely any transportation for buyers to bring the produce to market” claims Tesfay, a farmer, who is concerned about the recent tensions and strongly believes that the global community should intervene in order to reach a reconciliation among the parties.  

The Tigray war, according to UNHCR in collaboration with OCHA, caused the displacement of more than 2,1 milion of people in Tigray, approximately 250,000 in the Amhara region and 112,000 in the Afar region, not only due to direct combat but also due to bombing, large-scale massacres, sexual violence and famine, which have rendered many areas uninhabitable. Approximatelt 1.140 casualties resulting from air raids, which occurred in civilian areas, were reported in the Tigray region. The main victims of these attacks were women, children, elderly people, or non-combatant civilians. Nearly one-third of the victims were individuals under the age of 18, while approximately half of the victims were female, including pregnant and breastfeeding women.

After the the withdrawal of Ethiopian government forces from many parts of Tigray in June 2021 a siege was imposed in the region, preventing all humanitarian aid from reaching the region, in violation of international humanitarian law. The Ethiopian government has unlawfully restricted and denied food, medical supplies and fuel to the population of Tigray, imposing bureaucratic obstacles on humanitarian agencies to obtain visas and permits to purchase goods, perpetrating harassment, attacks and expulsions of humanitarian workers, and disrupting basic services in the region. During the two years of conflict, there have been several reports of sexual abuse throughout the region, including gang rape, sexual slavery and torture. Sexual violence has been used as a weapon of war, particularly by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces against women and girls in Tigray.

Another significant component of this conflict has been ethnic massacres, which occurred mainly in the early months of the conflict and during the counter-offensives of 2021. There have been numerous massacres targeting civilians identified as belonging to the Tigrinya ethnic group. Among the most notorious massacres were those in Humera, Axum and Hagere Selam, which took place between November and December 2020. These massacres were often accompanied by sexual violence and destruction of property, revealing systematic violence against civilians on ethnic grounds. Organisations such as Human Rights Watch and New Lines Institute have classified these acts as war crimes and crimes against humanity with signs of possible genocide, as it is alleged that Ethiopian government forces, together with allied Eritrean forces and various regional militias, acted with the intent to destroy the “Tigrinya” as an ethnic group.

Escalation: an increasingly realistic scenario

In a context of past systemic violence and possible current developments that could lead to a relapse into armed violence, there is a civilian population that is highly vulnerable and in need of protection and security. Diplomatic efforts and international assistance are needed to safeguard the civilian population. Currently, violence is limited in scale, but there is a risk of a return to large-scale conflict between Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, as in 2020, which would lead to a new cycle of violence that would seriously endanger civilians. Action must be taken now before the situation deteriorates again: the risk of escalation is real.

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