A possible change of course on the horizon for Venezuela?

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

On July 28^th, 2024, Venezuelans will vote for first time after 11 years of the authoritarian and Chavist presidency of Nicolás Maduro. The current Venezuelan president leads with around 54.2% in the polls, while his main rival, Urrutia, is at 21.1%, according to recent reports. With just days before the vote, tensions in the country remain elevated.

Why are these elections important?

For the last 25 years, the Venezuelan government has been under the control of Chavismo, a political and ideological movement inspired by socialism. This movement arose from the 1999 Bolivarian Revolution and takes its name from its founder, Hugo Chávez. Socialist, anti-imperialist and populist, Chávez denounced Western capitalism while simultaneously promising to respect private property.

After the death of Chávez, the term “Chavist” became legitimated and was regularly used by the main leaders of the Bolivarian Revolution, including President Nicolás Maduro. When Chávez died in 2013, Maduro, his protégé, took his place and has held the Venezuelan presidency since then. The current president is supported by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) which is currently in power, along with allied revolutionary forces grouped in the so-called Great Patriotic Pole (GPP). His political strategy focuses on further reinforcing the socialist party.

After almost a decade, the election taking place on July 28^th will be the first in which the opposition may actually win. Naturally, the percentage of support is not the same. After the candidacy of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was cancelled due to corruption allegations, Maduro’s main opponent is the former diplomat and political scientist Edmundo González Urrutia.

However, the 2018 election, which declared Maduro the winner, was later declared unfair and distorted. The obsolescence of the Chavista system, the severe economic crisis, and the humanitarian emergency in the country are among the reasons leading to believe that an overturing of the results is possible, potentially leading to a new government in Caracas.

Venezuelan crisis

Venezuela was once considered the pearl of Latin America, a jewel due to its incredible oil resources.

How did it arrive at this point?

Corruption, the socialist government’s poor administration of resources, and foreign interferences, such as U.S. sanctions – strategic sanctions due to Venezuelan’s close ties with Fidel Castro’s government – have led to a general impoverishment of the population.

Since the rise of the Chavist leader in 2013, Venezuela has experienced one of the worst economic and migratory crises in the world, causing millions of refugees and asylum-seekers, particularly in the United States. Last year, the number of people trying to escape reached a new historic level worldwide. Each year, the UNHCR, UN agency for refugees, publishes a Global Trends report, and for 2024, Venezuela is listed among the countries with the most critic situations, with around 7.7 million refugees.

Under Maduro’s presidency, the country faced a severe economic crisis characterized by hyperinflation (which means that the bolivar, the national currency, lost nearly all its value), shortage of essential goods, raising of poverty and crime, and an increase in drug trafficking. Due to Maduro’s authoritarian policies, starting from 2016, large protests have often escalated into extremely violent riots across the country.

Despite this crisis, Maduro has retained power through decrees and emergency measures. In 2020, the UN accused his government of crimes against humanity and called for him to be prosecuted by the International Court of Justice in The Hauge.

Latest news: What to expect

During a recent campaign event held in Caracas, President Maduro made a declaration that raised serious concern, invoking the possibility of a “bloodbath” if he does not win the July 28^th elections.

In a fiery speech delivered in front of his supporters in the western neighborhood of Pueblo de Parroquia de la Vega, Maduro painted an apocalyptic picture of Venezuela’s future should his administration fail to win the elections. Recently, the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announced that it will send two observers to monitor the presidential election on July 28^th. 

It is still uncertain whether there will be a radical change that breaks the Chavist authoritarian cycle. One certainty is that the atmosphere is tense, as Venezuela has experienced oppressive control over the legislative power, the police and other law enforcement agencies, journalists, and also violent paramilitary groups under the protection of the president. On the other hand, the opposition leader enjoys significant popular support, and, as required by the electoral body, several international actors will oversee the presidential elections, aiming to ensure transparency and integrity.

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