Framing the World

Translated by Federica Conti

‘Framing the World’ is an analytical column that offers in-depth analysis of key trends in international politics. The column is organized by geographic regions - Asia, the Americas, Africa & MENA, and Europe - and each week features a thematic focus comprising several coordinated articles. The goal is to provide clear and accessible insights into major global developments through the collaborative work of the editorial team.

This and much more in the latest issue of FtW!

Instability in the Horn of Africa: The Resurgence of Al-Shabaab, Capital Flight, and Political Instability

In the current emerging geopolitical context, political instability in the Horn of Africa, in Somalia especially, acts as a deadly ‘threat multiplier,’ a catalyst for severe socioeconomic crises and increasingly widespread insecurity.

Somalia, one of the poorest macro-regions on the planet, is fertile ground where the interplay between a significant state power vacuum, the collapse of logistics, and a predominantly maritime economy is taking shape.

Indeed, institutional tensions between the federal government in Mogadishu and the regional states have paralyzed the entire state security system: by exploiting internal weaknesses and fragmentation, as well as uncertainties related to the electoral transition and peacekeeping missions due to international disengagement, the terrorist group Al-Shabaab has regained strength, now controlling approximately 30% of the national territory.

This is not just a matter of targeted attacks in Mogadishu and terrorizing civilians; the organization transforms military coercion into economic extortion that then spreads far and wide. It is an illegal taxation system, called Zakat, imposed on merchants, farmers, and transporters.

Consequently, in a context already strained by climate conditions, famines, and recent cuts to humanitarian funding by the international community, the risk of internal displacement is rising sharply.

The high risk of attacks also exacerbates the country’s geo-economic consequences: the inflow of so-calledForeign Direct Investments (FDI) from multinational corporations and foreign private investors has come to a standstill, thereby freezing or slowing the development and modernization of strategic ports such as those on the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

Still on the topic of the maritime sector, these same threats, combined with soaring insurance costs, are crippling logistics and local trade.

As a result, this ultimately fuels secondary economies and illicit trafficking run by the same criminal networks.

In conclusion, it must be stated that military force alone or bilateral trade agreements are not sufficient to break the vicious cycle that has formed among insurgency, poverty, and capital flight without solid internal political reconciliation and a strong, genuine strengthening of the country’s institutions.

Anna Pasquetto

The Horn of Africa at the Center of Geopolitical Competition: Access to the Sea, Somaliland, and the Red Sea Crisis

In recent years, the Horn of Africa has returned to the center of international attention, not only because of persistent conflicts and humanitarian crises, but above all because of the growing geopolitical competition affecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Today, the region represents a crossroads of African, Middle Eastern, and global interests, where maritime security, international trade, and strategic rivalries intertwine. In this context, Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea, Somaliland's future, and the war in Yemen are closely intertwined.

The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland in January 2024 has reignited tensions in the Horn of Africa. Since Eritrea’s secession in 1993, Addis Ababa has been the world’s most populous landlocked country and depends almost exclusively on the port of Djibouti. This dependence represents not only an economic cost but also a strategic vulnerability. The agreement with Somaliland, which provides for access to a stretch of coastline on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for a possible future diplomatic opening, reflects Ethiopia’s desire to diversify its trade routes and strengthen its strategic autonomy.

However, the agreement has provoked a strong reaction from Somalia, which considers it a violation of its territorial integrity. The issue has also brought Somaliland back to the forefront of international debate; since 1991, Somaliland has exercised effective control over its territory, has relatively stable institutions, and ensures better security conditions than other areas of Somalia, even though it remains unrecognized as a sovereign state. Any recognition would set a significant precedent for the African continent, where the principle of the inviolability of colonial borders continues to be one of the cornerstones of the regional order.

Somaliland’s importance has further grown in light of the Red Sea crisis. Houthi attacks on trade routes have turned Bab el-Mandeb into one of the main chokepoints of global trade, increasing the strategic value of the Horn of Africa’s coastline. Against this backdrop, external actors such as the Gulf States, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel are also looking at the region with growing interest. For Israel, in particular, security in the Red Sea has become a strategic priority, both to ensure freedom of navigation to the port of Eilat and to contain the influence of the Iran-Houthi axis.

More than just a territorial dispute, the conflict between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland reflects the shifting geopolitical balance in the Horn of Africa. Control over maritime access, port infrastructure, and trade routes is now part of a broader competition involving regional and global actors, confirming the region’s role as one of the international system’s key strategic hubs.

Bianca Mannino

Framing The World is a project created by a team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

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