Framing The World, CXII Edition
In the new issue of Framing we deal with diplomatic missions: the visit of former secretary of state Henry Kissinger to China, the meeting between the Iraqi prime minister and President Assad and the signing of the controversial Memorandum of Understanding on migrants between the EU and Tunisia. Furthermore, on the human rights front, we talk about the pardon granted to the Egyptian activist Patrick Zaki. All this and more in the 112th issue of Framing the World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
Egypt, Presidential Pardon Granted to Patrick Zaki. In the midst of a case that sparked international outrage, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has granted a pardon to Patrick Zaki, a young student from the University of Bologna, who had been sentenced to three years in prison by the country's special court. The sentence was issued on the grounds of alleged "spreading false news" through some articles posted on social media. Immediately after the verdict, Zaki was arrested in the courtroom, and the irrevocable judgment cast a shadow over freedom of expression and human rights in Egypt. However, Al-Sisi has issued a presidential decree granting pardon to Patrick Zaki and other political detainees, including lawyer Mohamed al-Baqer, known for his advocacy on behalf of Alaa Abdel Fattah, another prominent political prisoner in Egypt.
(Sofia Ena)
Thailand, 15-year prison sentence for a young activist. Noppasin 'Sainam' Treelayapewat, a 16-year-old Thai activist, has been charged with "lese majesty" for participating in a satirical fashion parade held in Bangkok on October 29, 2020, during a pro-democracy demonstration. During the event, protesters organized the parade as a form of criticism against the role of the monarchy in the country. Sainam is currently facing several charges, including "lese majesty" under Article 112 of the Thai Penal Code, which carries heavy prison penalties for those who defame, insult, or threaten the king, queen, heir to the throne, or regent. Amnesty International has urged the Thai authorities to release Sainam, advocating for the right to freedom of expression and assembly.
(Sofia Ena)
Sofia Ena
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Inflation, two-year lows. The U.S. inflation rate fell to 3 % in June, below expectations, confirming that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are finally affecting the price level. The annual increase in the consumer price index slowed from 4% in May to 3% in June, the slowest pace since March 2021 and aided by so-called base effects, as the large increases from June 2022 are now excluded from the calculations. On a monthly basis, growth was 0.2%, up slightly from the 0.1 % of the previous month, but lower than economists' forecasts. The annual figure, on the other hand, was The "core" CPI fell more modestly, from 5.3 % to 4.8 % annually. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent month-on-month, up from 0.1 % in May.
JPMorgan, profits are soaring. Progress on inflation and the excellent results from Wall Street banks that have begun releasing their quarterly results are making stock markets experience one of the best weeks of 2023, with the S&P500 up 2.5 % and the Nasdaq up 3.3%. In particular, among the standouts are JPMorgan's earnings, which, even though CEO Jamie Dimon is still preaching caution on both the economic and geopolitical fronts, beat analysts' forecasts thanks mainly to a 44 % increase in net interest income (+38% if First Republic Bank is excluded), while earnings are up 67% to $4.75 per share versus $4 expected. In addition, unlike the other large U.S. banks, JPMorgan is reported to have increased its workforce by 8 percent, surpassing the 300,000 milestone.
Tesla, a delivery record. Tesla revealed that it delivered an impressive 466,000 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, a 10% increase over the previous quarter and an 84% increase over 2022, exceeding its self-imposed target of 50% annual growth. The result was achieved mainly due to the price cuts put into practice since the beginning of the year, although this came at the expense of the profit margin, which dropped 9. 6% year-on-year to 18.7%. These figures were not well digested by investors, however, with the stock plunging 3.6 % in the stock market, a slight adjustment when considering that since the beginning of the year the stock value has risen 140%.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Senegal, Maky Sall renounces a third mandate. With a historic decision for Senegal and for Africa, the President of the Senegalese Republic Macky Sall has officially announced that he is not going to run for a third term. In power since 2012, Sall will not be a presidential candidate in 2024, putting an end to a dispute that had inflamed the whole of Senegal for months, giving rise to protests and clashes in Dakar and the other main urban centers. The President was the proponent of the 2016 constitutional reform which envisaged two important innovations: the reduction of the presidential term from seven to five years and the express prohibition of holding the Presidential office more than two times. Nevertheless Sall - re-elected for a second time in 2019 - still believed he was entitled to a second five-year term, affirming that its first 7 years mandate did not count.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
RDC: opposition spokesman Chérubin Okende shot dead months before election. Chérubin Okende, an opponent, deputy, and former minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a member of presidential candidate Moïse Katumbi's party, was found dead in Kinshasa, his body riddled with bullets. Okende had visited the Constitutional Court the previous day and was later found dead in his car. The government expressed horror at the assassination, with Communication Minister Patrick Muyaya condemning the act and calling for a thorough investigation. This incident heightens the already tense political atmosphere ahead of the year-end elections. Okende, 61, had resigned as Minister of Transport last December alongside other pro-Katumbi ministers. Katumbi recently announced his presidential bid and withdrew his party from the ruling coalition. Incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi, in office since 2019, seeks re-election. Several opponents, including Katumbi, suspect electoral bias and potential election fraud.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Kenya: cost-of-living protests continue and the death toll rises. Protests erupted in Kenya against tax hikes and rising living costs, leading to violent confrontations. While Nairobi remained relatively calm, clashes were reported in the city's Kibera and Mathare areas and in the western city of Kisumu. The protests intensified following the arrest of Babu Owino, an MP, and other opposition figures. The government has not officially commented on the protests or confirmed casualties. Opposition leader, Raila Odinga, encouraged the demonstrations against the new levies and the rising costs. In Kibera, a stronghold of Odinga, residents clashed with riot police. In Kisumu, many chose to stay indoors due to the violence. Opposition MPs praised the protests and called on the International Criminal Court to investigate the situation. Despite the government's assurance, many parents refrained from sending their children to school, fearing further unrest. Amnesty International reported 30 deaths since the protests began in March.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Giulio Ciofini and Francesco Lorenzini
NORTH AMERICA
United States of America, the “ping pong” diplomat returns to China. On the 18th of July Henry Kissinger, the 100 years old former US Secretary of State and veteran diplomat, has met China's Defence Minister, Li Shangfu, in Beijing. As a Chinese statement reported, Li said on Tuesday that "friendly communication" between China and the US has been "destroyed" because "some people in the United States did not meet China halfway" and Kissinger answered saying that he is a "friend of China" and that "neither the United States nor China can afford to treat the other as an adversary". The visit comes as John Kerry, a US climate envoy, went to Beijing to discuss how China and the US can cooperate on confronting the climate crisis and it is another important sign of opening between the two states, being also the fact that Li has already refused to meet his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, in Singapore this summer.
(Lorenzo Graziani)
US, the labor market slows down. For the first time in 14 months, the U.S. labor market reported a downbeat result, recording "only" 209,000 new jobs created, in what is the first result to fall short of economists' forecasts in 14 months and the lowest figure since late 2020. In addition, the April and May figures were revised downward, with 110,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. This slowdown, coupled with progress on the inflation front, while not expected to change the Fed's stance on the need for another rate hike at its next meeting on July 25-26, nevertheless prompts economists to believe that that of July will most likely be the last such increase.
(Leonardo Aldeghi)
Lorenzo Graziani and Leonardo Aldeghi
LATIN AMERICA
Brussels, 17 and 18 July saw the third summit between the EU and CELAC. Eight years after the last summit, leaders from the European Union and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States came together to strengthen the partnership and collaborate strategically in light of the challenges of the present. First, concrete developments concerned energy and digital transition, with the presentation of the Global Gateway, an investment agenda aimed at promoting green initiatives and inclusive technological innovations in many areas of Latin America. On the trade front, however, progress is slow: the ratification of the free trade agreement with Mercosur, concluded in 2019, is still missing. The greatest frictions, however, have concerned the issue of the war in Ukraine: among the different positions on the conflict, those of Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, countries with strong ideological and geopolitical affinities with Moscow and with whom it will be difficult to enter into dialogue, have caused particular concern.
(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)
Honduras, the National State of Emergency continues. In line with the security policy adopted by Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele, Honduras President Xiomara Castro decided to extend the State of Emergency until August (in force since December 2022). The measure, aimed at fighting crime in the country, includes the suspension of some constitutional guarantees, including the ban on arrests without a judicial warrant. While this policy has made law enforcement more effective, it has also generated serious problems in prison management. In addition to an issue of overcrowding - a UN report states that penitentiary institutions exceed the maximum capacity by 34.2% -, Honduran prisons often reflect a climate of violence and gang fights typical of many areas of the small Central American state. As evidence of this, last 20 June, in a women's prison in Tamara 46 women lost their lives in the context of a clash between rival criminal gangs.
(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
China, deflation risk. If Western economies are still struggling with inflation, although some success seems within reach, China's economy has the opposite problem. As a matter of fact, data released last week showed that the country is on the verge of deflation, as June consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year and instead fell 0. 2% on the previous month, but the biggest cause for concern came from producer prices, which fell 5.4%, the biggest drop since 2015. However, Chinese markets reacted cautiously, buoyed by the hope that the government will be forced to intervene with support measures, just as it did in 2009, the last period of prolonged deflation experienced by China, resulting in a $500 billion stimulus program.
(Leonardo Aldeghi)
United States of America, running between South and North Korea. On the 18th of July a U.S. service member crossed the border from South Korea to North Korea "willfully and without authorization" as confirmed by the Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin during a press conference. According to the Colonel of United States Forces Korea Public Affairs Isaac Taylor, the soldier was on a civilian tour of the Demilitarized Zone when he separated from the group and crossed the demarcation line. The soldier, identified as Travis King, had just been released from a South Korean prison and was seen running toward North Korea and being taken into custody. During the press conference Taylor said that he believes King is currently under North Korean control, thus creating an urgent need to re-establish a healthy communication channel between the two states.
(Lorenzo Graziani)
Lorenzo Graziani and Leonardo Aldeghi
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
EU, nature restoration law approved. On 21 July, the European Parliament approved the Nature Restoration Law, which aims to restore at least 20 percent of the European Union's territory to its natural state, including several areas used for agriculture. The law passed with 336 votes in favour and 300 votes against; it had been approved by the European Council in June, but the European People's Party had subsequently opposed the law, fearing that it could jeopardise food security and the stability of several companies.
In the coming weeks, the council and parliament will have to agree on the final version of the text.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, agreement with Tunisia on migrants. On 16 July, the European Union reached an agreement with Tunis that includes economic support from Brussels in exchange for implemented economic reforms and border control. The text of the agreement mentions “a holistic approach to migration” and the intentionality to “remedy the root causes of irregular migration”. However, Brussels' economic commitment and Tunisia's specific demands seem to be not entirely clear.
The EU pledges to provide economic support to Tunisia to improve sea rescue, control of territorial waters and border controls; Tunis says it is willing to repatriate Tunisian citizens who have arrived in Europe illegally and reiterates that it does not want to open centres for non-Tunisian migrants.
In Parliament, the agreement found doubts and criticism related to the lack of respect for fundamental rights by the President of Tunisia and the fear of reviving the cooperation already in place with Libya.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU Council and Parliament towards the Cyber Resilience Act. The European Union is advancing towards the approval of the Cyber Resilience Act, a fundamental legislative act that represents the first community regulation on cyber resilience, proposed by the European Commission on September 15th of last year. Both co-legislators of the EU, the Parliament, and the Council, have adopted their respective negotiating positions regarding this measure. The main objective is to establish mandatory security standards for products containing digital elements throughout their entire lifecycle. This aims to protect both consumers and businesses from potential cyber-attacks and any deficiencies in the security features of such products. The scope of the Act will be broad and will include various categories of products, including home cameras, smart refrigerators, smart TVs, toys, cars, and other digital devices.
(Sofia Ena)
EU, Timmermans leaves commission to engage in national politics: European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans has announced his intention to leave the European Union to engage in Dutch national politics. In the upcoming Nov. 22 general election, Timmermans will lead a joint list composed of Socialists and Greens.His announcement came after the shocking collapse of the coalition government of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a liberal politician with right-wing tendencies who has led the Netherlands since 2010. Rutte has made it clear that he will not run for a new term, opening an opportunity for the opposition to change the country's political culture.Timmermans confirmed his candidacy Thursday morning, ending days of speculation and media reports about his immediate future. According to a recent poll, the Labor Party (PvdA) and GroenLinks (GL) led by Timmermans as the joint candidate garnered 28 percent public support, placing him at the top of voters' preferences. With his return to national politics, Timmermans will strive to lead this coalition in hopes of bringing significant changes to the Dutch political landscape
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Greece, activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism in response to devastating wildfires. The country has activated the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism in the wake of extensive wildfires ravaging the Attica region around the city of Athens for several days. The EU promptly responded by sending aid, including four Canadair aircraft from France and Italy, and three firefighting teams comprising 220 firefighters and 65 vehicles from countries like Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, who are already on-site to assist in rescue operations. The European Commission has declared its readiness to provide further assistance if needed.
(Sofia Ena)
Russia, journalist Elena Milashina attacked in Chechnya. On 4 July, Elena Milashina, a journalist with Novaya Gazeta, was attacked by about ten armed men, suffering brain injuries and fractures to numerous bones. For years, Milashina had been denouncing the abuses committed by Chechen President Kadyrov. In 2017, she accused the Chechen police of arresting, torturing and in some cases even killing people they considered homosexuals. In 2020, she labelled as 'terrorists' those Covid-19 positive people who refused to call doctors or go to hospital. Because of the latter statements, the journalist had been beaten up in the lobby of a hotel in Grozny. Human Rights Watch called on the Russian government to carry out effective and impartial investigations into the past attacks on journalists and human rights defenders and ensure that President Kadyrov and other Chechen authorities cease their threats and persecution of human rights defenders, journalists and others.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
Moldova, opposition leader in breakaway region murdered: Oleg Horjan, leader of the Communist Party of Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, was found dead in his home near Tiraspol. The region's Interior Ministry reported that the body showed "signs of violent death." Horjan was an advocate of closer ties with Russia.Horjan's wife discovered his body in a room next to an open safe, which turned out to be empty. Moldovan police said Horjan was killed with gunshots, but investigators in the region reported "multiple stab wounds" to his neck and back, as well as head wounds. The crime occurred between July 16 and 17, and robbery was speculated as a possible motive. Transnistria, a predominantly Russian-speaking region, is a key political issue in Moldova, which is landlocked and located between Ukraine and Romania, a member of the European Union. The frozen conflict concerning Transnistria continues to influence regional dynamics, with Horjan as a leading opposition figure. However, it is unclear who is responsible for his death, and investigations are ongoing to establish the truth behind this tragic event.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Russia Accused by Azerbaijan of Failure to Comply with Ceasefire: Azerbaijan has accused Russia of failing to meet its obligations under the 2020 ceasefire agreement brokered by Moscow to end the war with Armenia concerning the Karabakh region. According to Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry, Russia has done nothing to prevent Armenia's military supplies to pro-Armenian forces in the Karabakh region, despite repeated warnings from Azerbaijan regarding illegal activities across the Lachin road.Tensions have escalated, and the president of Azerbaijan and Armenia's prime minister have met in Brussels for peace talks mediated by the European Union, with the president of the European Council acting as mediator. Moscow offered to host the foreign ministers of the two countries and proposed that a future peace treaty could be signed in Moscow.Relations between the two former Soviet republics have been strained since 1991, when Armenia occupied Karabakh and seven adjacent regions internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Most of the territory was later liberated by Baku during the fall 2020 war through a peace agreement brokered by Russia, opening up prospects for normalization.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Sofia Ena, Lorenzo Franceschetti and Francesca Pasqualino
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Turkey, tour in the Gulf: the Turkish president has embarked on a diplomatic trip to several countries in the Arabian Peninsula with the aim of strengthening relations with old allies and strengthening the partnership with the Saudi monarchy and the Emirates federation. Ankara needs the help of the Gulf monarchies to support its ailing economy. In fact, an intensification of trade relations and mixing between the private sectors of the respective countries is planned. Furthermore, the Saudi and Turkish defence ministries have signed an agreement to supply the famous Bayraktar drones, a military tool with which Ankara increases its influence in various regional quadrants. After years of close competition, Ankara has thus embarked on a new path of reconciliation with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
(Michele Magistretti)
Israel, the great march: a protest demonstration against the justice reform promoted by the right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu took shape on Thursday 20. The march started in Tel Aviv and headed to Jerusalem, specifically to the Knesset, the parliament. As the hours and days passed, the number of participants grew by leaps and bounds, and by the weekend had reached tens of thousands. At the same time, more than a thousand air force reservists announced that they were suspending their activities as a form of protest against a reform seen as undermining democracy. This decision has raised the ire and criticism of extremist factions in the ruling coalition. Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir attacked the reservists, accusing them of endangering state security and criticising the attempt of elements of the army to influence the work of the democratically elected parliament.
(Michele Magistretti)
Morocco, Israel recognizes Rabat's sovereignty over Western Sahara. Two and a half years after the signing of the Morocco-Israel-United States tripartite agreement with which Tel Aviv and Rabat had re-established diplomatic ties, the Netanyahu government has now officially recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The question is inevitably intertwined with the Palestine issue, even though the spokesman of King Mohamed V has reiterated Morocco's position of support for the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. Algeria - the main supporter of the Polisario Front since 1975 and a historic opponent of Morocco - has harshly condemned the Israeli announcement, reaffirming the right to self-determination of the Saharawi people.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Tunisia, the EU and Tunis sign an agreement on migratory flow control. After a long standoff, on July 16th Tunisian President Kais Saied has finally accepted the European Union’s proposal: Tunisia vows to guarantee tighter control of its borders to prevent the departure of irregular migrants in exchange for 105 million euros in European funds. The amount could reach the ceiling of 900 million euros, provided, however, that Tunis manages to reach an agreement with the IMF. Tunisia thus becomes a new outsourcing center for the European Union's migration policy. However, there are plenty of opposing voices: many Tunisians have labeled the arrangement as a "shame agreement ", considering that Tunisia is going to transform itself into the new "Cerberus of the Mediterranean" in return for a modest amount of money. In this regard, the absence of the Tunisian Minister of Foreign Affairs Nabil Ammar - on tour in the Gulf countries – at the moment of the signing, did not go unnoticed.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Francesco Lorenzini and Michele Magistretti
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Sudan: armed men attacked and beat up MSF’s health team. Armed assailants attacked an 18-member Doctors Without Borders (MSF) team in Khartoum, Sudan. En route to deliver supplies to the Turkish Hospital in South Khartoum, the medical team was intercepted and questioned about their presence in Sudan before being physically assaulted. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been exerting dominance in Khartoum, occupying civilian properties and converting them into operational bases over the past three months. In retaliation, the Sudanese army has launched airstrikes and shelling on populated areas. Widespread destruction, looting, and targeting of humanitarian facilities have been reported in Khartoum and nearby Omdurman. Two World Food Program sites, one in Khartoum and another in El Obeid, have been looted, as confirmed by the U.N. agency.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Syria, the Iraqi premier and President Assad meet in Damascus. The historic visit between Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took place in Syria on 16 July. The visit between the two delegations had not taken place since 2011, the year of the outbreak of the Syrian civil war and the ousting of Syria from the Arab League. The issues addressed during the meeting concerned key issues common to both states: security, terrorism and the climate crisis. In fact, the two countries share 600 km of border, the porosity of which must be kept under control due to the trafficking of both ISIS sleeper cells and the drug Captagon, the sale of which has reached as far as Iraq and Jordan. In addition, it was about how to find a common solution to drought and jointly use their water sources. On the energy front, however, the idea of reopening an oil pipeline aimed at exporting to the Mediterranean to revive the reciprocal economies. The meeting between the two statesmen is an important step in the normalization between the Arab countries and Assad's Syria, despite the fact that relations between Iraq and Syria have never been interrupted thanks also to the Iranian presence in the region.
(Sara Oldani)
Giulio Ciofini and Sara Oldani
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East
Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security
Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa
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