Framing The World, CXXVI Edition

Framing The World, CXXVI Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with the critical violations of humanitarian law in Gaza and the repression of pro-Palestine demonstrations in Italian squares. On the economic front, however, we analyze the energy forecasts for the next quarter. All this and much more in the 126th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Italy, students beaten by police. On 23 February, police in Pisa used excessive force against students during a peaceful pro-Palestinian demonstration. Videos and images circulated on social media showing officers striking unarmed minors with batons. The incident prompted calls for accountability and the Italian government launched an investigation into the police conduct involving 15 officers. On 1 March, thousands of people took to the streets to reiterate their solidarity with Palestine and protest against the repression that had taken place a few days earlier in the city. The international community and human rights organisations expressed concern, stressing the importance of protecting civil liberties and democratic values. President of the Republic Mattarella commented on the incident saying: “The batons against the students express a failure”.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Russia, Oleg Orlov sentenced for criticizing the military. The Moscow court has sentenced Oleg Orlov, former co-chair of the Memorial Foundation and recipient of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, to two and a half years in prison. Orlov was accused of "discrediting" the Russian military for his outspoken criticism of the aggression in Ukraine. During the trial, he defended his stance, emphasizing that he was on trial for labeling the Russian regime as "fascist" and "totalitarian" over a year ago. The verdict raises questions about freedom of expression in Russia and the legal consequences for those who dare to dissent.

(Sofia Ena)

Gaza, gunfire erupts as crowd waits for Humanitarian Aid. On February 29th, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) opened fire on thousands of hungry people gathered along the coastal road Rashid, awaiting a convoy of 30 trucks carrying humanitarian aid. The toll of Palestinian victims from Israeli gunfire during the wait for food aid in Gaza has risen to 104, as stated by the Gaza Ministry of Health. At least 760 Palestinians have been reported injured. Hamas has warned that the incident could jeopardize ongoing negotiations in Qatar regarding a potential ceasefire and hostage exchange in the conflict.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

China, signs of economic weakness. China's economy shows further signs of slowing as industrial activity slows, with the purchasing managers' index (PMI) coming in at 49.1 for February, down from 49.2 in January and in line with Reuters analysts' forecasts. The consistent weakness in China's manufacturing PMI - in its fifth consecutive month of contraction - comes as the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's parliament, opens on Tuesday, in which the government will announce its economic growth targets and possible fiscal stimulus measures to reinvigorate the economy. Analysts expect Beijing to announce a growth target for 2024 of about 5%, while on the stimulus front, more circumscribed measures are expected than in the past.

EU, another decline. Inflation in the eurozone fell to 2.6% in February, but the figure was higher than economists' expectations, thanks to consumer prices, excluding energy and food, continuing to grow at particularly high rates. According to data published by EUROSTAT on Friday, the annual increase in consumer prices in the 20 euro countries slowed from 2.8% in January, but was above the 2.5 % rate expected by economists. The continued decline in the cost of living will be welcomed by the European Central Bank, which meets this week to discuss the timing of interest rate cuts. However, concerns remain about continued wage growth and resulting inflation in the labor-intensive services sector, which slowed only slightly last month to 3.9% from 4% of the previous month.

Oil, at the highest since November. U.S. crude oil futures touched $80 a barrel for the first time in four months amid a tighter market ahead of the OPEC+ decision on production cuts. The April WTI contract rose 2.19 % to $79.97 a barrel Friday, marking the highest close for U.S. crude since Nov. 6. In contrast, Brent crude with May delivery gained 2.09%, and closed at $83.94. U.S. crude and the global benchmark posted their second consecutive monthly gain in February, with OPEC+ considering extending production cuts through the second quarter and, possibly, the end of the year, three sources in the organization told Reuters this week. The cartel and its allies are expected to make a decision on the reductions in the first week of March. The next meeting of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, however, is scheduled for April 3.

Japan, 10-year record broken. Japan's main stock market index rose Friday to another record high near the 40,000-point level. The Nikkei 225 closed higher by 1.9% to 39,910.82, after touching a session high of 39,990.23, and surpassing the record set Tuesday. Only last week the index had finally surpassed its all-time record, which stood from 1989. Japanese markets were not so much buoyed by mixed macroeconomic data (unemployment rate down to 2.4 %, PMI index down to 47.2) but rather by the confidence of international investors, reassured by the central bank's caution about a future interest rate hike.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Western Africa, Ecowas backtracks on military juntas. Between Feb. 24 and 25, the Economic Community of West African States (Cédéao/Ecowas) withdrew most of the sanctions it had imposed on Niger, Guinea, and Mali, which have been ruled by military juntas for several years. Despite multiple attempts, Ecowas has failed to assert itself over the regimes. "Worse, the organization lost its face. It has emerged defeated in the fight against unconstitutional power grabs and for the defense of democracy," writes Le Pays, a newspaper in Burkina Faso, the only country still under sanctions. Ecowas choice is attributable to a desire not to further exacerbate the already strained relations between the West African countries.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Senegal, final step backward by President Sall. After two days of national dialogue on February 26 and 27, the date of June 2 was proposed for the presidential elections that were to be held on February 25. The list of candidates should include through a repechage mechanism some opponents of current President Macky Sall, such as Karim Wade (son of former President Abdoulaye Wade). Sall has proposed an amnesty-approved on Feb. 29 by the council of ministers-for politically motivated violence that occurred between 2021 and 2024, which could benefit the opponent Ousmane Sonko, who is in prison. Sall also said he will leave his office on April 2.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Ghana, a new strict law against LGBTQ+ individuals approved. The bill, which imposes harsh prison sentences for those who identify as part of this community or support its rights, awaits validation from President Nana Akufo-Addo. Before this law, homosexuals in Ghana could already face up to three years in jail, but the new measure extends the sentence to five years for anyone promoting or supporting LGBTQ+ activities. The law has elicited strong international reaction, especially from the United States, which expressed concern over the implications for freedom and human rights in Ghana. Criticism has also come from human rights organizations, which see the law as a significant threat to public health, media, civic spaces, and the country's economy.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Chad, the main opponent of the junta killed by the military. Yaya Dillo, the leading opposition figure against the military junta led by his cousin, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, was killed along with 12 others during a military raid on the headquarters of his party, the centrist Parti Socialiste sans Frontières. Dillo was accused of orchestrating an attack against the national intelligence agency, amid tensions related to the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for May 6, in which he was considered Déby's main rival. This act of violence against Dillo, now that the date has been announced, raises doubts about the possibility of peaceful elections and exacerbates divisions within the Zaghawa clan.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, America's support to Gaza “drops down”. On Friday, March 1st, Joe Biden announced that the US will organize airdrops of food and emergency supplies into Gaza, indirectly expressing significant doubt regarding the possibility of persuading the Israeli government to coordinate a ground operation to counter the significant threat posed by the lack of food and medicine in the Gaza Strip. However, not everyone has been enthusiastic about the choice, arguing that sending aid by air is more of a symbolic gesture, given its limited effectiveness, and that the primary focus should be on finding a diplomatic solution.

Canada, sanctions against Russia continue. Following the announcement of new economic sanctions against Putin's Russia, on Friday, March 1st, Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly announced that Canada will impose an additional restriction on Russian diamonds, adding to the sanctions announced in December 2023. Canada has already imposed several sanctions on Alrosa, the Kremlin-owned diamond company, and revoked Russia's most-favored nation status, effectively imposing a 35% tariff on Russian products and drastically reducing the value of Russian goods imported into the North American country. The value plummeted from over $300,000 in 2022 to just over $13,000 in the first eight months of 2023.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Cuba. The Cuban Ministry of Food Industry declared the government’s incapacity to ensure the supply of bread through the ration book until the end of March, due to a shortage of wheat flour. The commercial director of the state-owned semolina-producing company warned that bread production will be seriously affected throughout the island due to the instability in the supply of raw materials. Bread is fundamental in the Cuban diet, and Cuba imports around 80% of its products from allied countries, like Russia, to ensure the entry of wheat flour, the lack of which jeopardizes the country’s food supply.

(Alessia Boni)

Venezuela. A private trilateral meeting is scheduled among the presidents of Venezuela (Nicolás Maduro), Brazil (Lula Da Silva), and Guyana (Mohamed Irfaan Alí) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, according to sources, coinciding with the VIII Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). The Maduro-Lula-Alí summit will take place two and a half months after the meeting on December 14th, which brought together the heads of state of Venezuela and Guyana to discuss the controversy over the Essequibo region. Brazil has been attempting to mediate in the dialogue between its two neighbors since Venezuela renewed its claim on the oil-rich Essequibo region, hosting both parties in meetings. According to two informed sources, the Brazilian leader aims to secure assurances from Maduro that Venezuela will not escalate rhetoric on Essequibo before the presidential elections.

(Alessia Boni)

Brazil, the dengue epidemic spreads contagions. The emergency phase faced by Brazil continues, the current dengue epidemic has already exceeded one million contagions since the beginning of 2024. Compared to last year, there has been a 400% increase in contagions. Contagions that, moreover, mostly affect pregnant women, who are at greater risk and require specific treatment as there could be serious repercussions not only for the mothers but also for the unborn children. For the time being, Brazil has earmarked around 1.5 billion reais, corresponding to approximately EUR 283 billion, to try to support local authorities in the costs of treatment and prevention. The Ministry of Health has also decided to create a communication campaign for March 2nd, inaugurating the date as 'D-day' to try to inform about containing the contagion.

(Serena Basso)

Serena Basso and Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Indonesia, the largest party contests elections. Indonesia's largest party is calling for a legislative investigation into alleged violations surrounding the recent presidential election and plans to take the case to the supreme court. The Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDIP) supported Ganjar Pranowo for president, coming third behind Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. “We found that there was an abuse of power, ranging from legal aspects to the use of state structures,” PDIP Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto told Reuters, but provided no details or evidence to support the accusation. In a report on Indonesian elections, the Asian Network for Free Elections noted widespread concerns about the independence of the election commission and the misuse of state resources to influence voter preferences.

South Korea, new tensions on the horizon. South Korean and U.S. troops are set to begin annual military drills in response to North Korea's nuclear threats. The announcement follows North Korea's intensified weapons testing since 2022, including six rounds of missile tests this year, believed to be aimed at strengthening its negotiating position for sanctions relief.The Freedom Shield exercise will take place from March 4-14. North Korea, viewing such drills as invasion rehearsals, may respond with provocations along the tense border. Experts anticipate increased testing and provocations in 2024, coinciding with major U.S. and South Korean elections.

Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Sweden, Hungarian Approval Opens the Door to NATO. On February 26, the Hungarian National Assembly voted in favor of ratifying Stockholm's accession protocol to NATO, allowing Sweden to become the 32nd member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The approval was secured with 188 in favor and only 6 against, as the Fidesz party deputies in power did not pose obstacles to ratification. Earlier, the two leaders had met in Budapest the previous Friday, primarily discussing defense and security cooperation. During the negotiations, it emerged that Hungary will have the opportunity to acquire four new Gripen fighter jets of Swedish make. Simultaneously, Stockholm received assurance that there would be no further opposition from Budapest in its path toward joining the Atlantic Alliance.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, Ursula von der Leyen seeks re-election to the European Commission. Ursula von der Leyen has officially announced her candidacy for a second term as the President of the European Commission. Currently in office since 2019, her term will conclude after the upcoming European elections scheduled between June 6 and June 9. The announcement was made during a meeting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), von der Leyen's center-right party in Germany, with support confirmed by party representatives. Von der Leyen's official appointment will require approval during the conference of her European party, the European People's Party (EPP), scheduled for March. This candidacy promises to play a significant role in the future dynamics of the European Commission, with the EU closely watching the prospect of a second term for von der Leyen.

(Sofia Ena)

EU calls for investigation into the massacre of civilians waiting for humanitarian aid in Gaza. The European Union has called for an independent investigation into the Israeli army's massacre of Palestinian civilians on 29 February. More than one hundred Palestinian civilians standing in line to receive bread were killed by the Israeli army. On X, Ursula von der Leyen wrote that she was deeply disturbed by the massacre and called for an investigation into the incident; Charles Michel also called for an investigation and stressed the need for a ceasefire 'to allow humanitarian aid provided by adequately funded specialised agencies such as UNRWA to reach civilians'. The European Commission announced that it will pay EUR 50 million to UNRWA and increase emergency support to the Palestinians by EUR 68 million in 2024.

(Bianca Franzini)

Finland, new President Alexander Stubb installed. On 1 March, Sauli Niinistö's presidential term ended after 12 years with the installation of the new President of the Republic, Alexander Stubb. During his first speech as President, Stubb stated that he will strive to have an open dialogue regarding foreign policy and that he will uphold the importance of cooperation with EU and NATO allies. Stubb also stated that Finland is experiencing a new era after joining NATO and will continue to support Ukraine in the long term by providing humanitarian assistance, refugee reception and defense material.

(Bianca Franzini)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Albania, Ukrainian President at summit of south-eastern European countries to call for more ammunition. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine attended the summit of south-eastern European countries in Tirana as his last stop on an international tour to strengthen solidarity with Ukraine. During the summit, Zelensky stated that increasing the supply of armaments, and in particular ammunition, is crucial for Ukraine to continue resisting Russian aggression. Not all countries present at the meeting fully support Ukraine in its war against Russia. However, not all countries present support Ukraine; Serbia is the only European country that has refused to align itself with EU sanctions after Russia's invasion, while continuing to sign cooperation agreements with Moscow.

Poland, the EU Commission has released the NRP and Cohesion funds earmarked for Warsaw. The European Commission has officially unblocked EU funds for Poland, which with a total value of EUR 137 billion from the Next Generation Europe and Cohesion policy include funding for the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRPr) and for judicial reforms that meet EU requirements. The new Polish government has pledged to respect the primacy of EU law and the jurisprudence of the EU Court of Justice, showing ambition in completing the required reforms. Poland's participation in the European Public Prosecutor's Office was also confirmed, marking an important step in integration with the EU. However, disputes persist between the EU and Poland concerning the rule of law and the management of the Turów mine, with fines and legal proceedings ongoing. Despite this, the EU remains committed to resolving the disputes and promoting cooperation with Poland.

Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, the proposal to eliminate the exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews reopens the debate on their status in Israeli society. Presented as a strategy to improve the IDF's preparedness for a possible prolonged conflict in the Gaza Strip, the proposal has raised numerous concerns about an increase in the (already high) polarization and social fragmentation of the Jewish state. Many legislators have raised doubts about the legitimacy of this provision, with particular attention to the exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox community, introduced since the 1950s to allow them to fully experience the religious tradition, in line with an austere and modest life on the margins of society. This proposal, already brought to the attention of public opinion with a petition in 2023, reopens the historic debate within Israeli society on the role of ultra-Orthodox or Haredim Jews and the multiple exemptions they enjoy compared to the rest of the citizenry. This proposal is supported by the military, who would thus benefit from a greater number of reservists in view of the hostilities and the possible regional escalation, and by the general and politician Gantz, who would also push to extend the obligation of military service also to Arab-Israelis. This issue shows once again the delicate balance between the numerous souls of Israel, with lack of equity between citizens' rights and duties and Antigone's ancient dilemma between national security and individual rights.

(Sara Oldani)

Red Sea, operations against the Houthis continue: the ASPIDES operation with naval units from several European countries, including Italy, has now begun. The operation aims to flank the Anglo-American operation, Prosperity Guardian, which has been operating in the Red Sea waters for months. However, there is no shortage of difficulties. It was precisely at the start of the operation that an incident between the German navy and Washington's forces came close. Due to a lack of coordination, the frigate Hessen allegedly fired two missiles at a drone that actually belonged to the US Army. The two missiles did not hit the target, however, because due to a technical defect they fell into the sea. On Saturday evening, the Italian navy destroyer Caio Duilio neutralised a drone about 5 kilometers away that was heading towards the Italian navy ship.

(Michele Magistretti)

Sara Oldani and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Colombia, two ship captains arrested on charges of human trafficking. According to the Colombian authorities, the two accused were working undercover for a tourist shipping company that was actually transporting migrants to the jungle of Darién, the initial stop on the migration routes to the United States. In protest against the authorities, several companies stopped transport, blocking thousands of migrants in the coastal towns of Turbo and Necoclí, a situation that could lead to the collapse of the health system and food supply. The number of migrants crossing the dangerous jungle of Darién is constantly increasing, with thousands coming from different parts of the world.

Spain, Carles Puigdemont investigated for terrorism. Spain's Supreme Court has launched an investigation into the former leader of the Catalan separatist movement for alleged terrorism linked to the so-called 'democratic tsunami', when a series of violent protests in 2019 followed the sentences handed down to Catalan separatist leaders, the latter promoters of the 2017 independence referendum. This decision, taken unanimously on Thursday, goes against the advice of the court prosecutor, who had previously rejected the request to investigate Puigdemont for lack of evidence. The investigation will complicate negotiations between Pedro Sánchez's Socialist Party and Junts per Catalunya over an amnesty for independence leaders and those involved in the 2017 referendum.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union