Framing The World, CXXXI Edition

Framing The World, CXXXI Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Georgia, repression of protests and abuse of power. Georgian authorities have recently violated the right to peaceful protest, suppressing demonstrators through the use of tear gas, water cannons, and other irritants, even targeting minors, journalists, and opposition members. These actions occurred in response to protests against a law requiring media outlets and non-governmental organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as "organizations representing the interests of a foreign power," seen as a restriction on freedom of association.

(Sofia Ena)

Sudan, Human Rights Watch denounces genocide. New victims following clashes between the Sudanese army and paramilitaries in the city of Al Fashir in western Darfur. Since May 10, the city has been under attack : 850 displaced people, many of them women and children. The United Nations estimates that about two million people are at risk of famine.Clementine Nkweta-Salami , UN coordinator for humanitarian affairs in Sudan has shown concern about civilians trapped in intense fighting. Human Rights Watch calls on governments to intervene, the proven crimes include torture, rape and looting.

(Lisa Pasolini)

Tunisia, increased Government pressure on civil society. Tunisian authorities are intensifying their crackdown on civil society, arresting activists, journalists, and members of NGOs focusing on migrant and refugee rights. In recent weeks, at least nine people have been detained, including prominent lawyers and anti-racism advocates. The government is using charges such as financial crimes and cybercrime to target dissenters. This suppression of independent organizations undermines support for vulnerable groups and threatens freedom of expression and association. Human Rights Watch urges international pressure to protect Tunisia's civil society and ensure human rights are respected.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, new tariffs on China. President Joe Biden has decided to increase tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports - including semiconductors, batteries, solar cells, and essential minerals - in an effort to bolster domestic production in these critical sectors. According to White House projections, the changes will affect about $18 billion in current annual imports, and will reach up to 102.5% in the case of electric cars. These moves represent the first modification to the measures imposed on China by Donald Trump, and an acknowledgement that the aggressive approach to the trade issue with Beijing is still popular with U.S. voters. However, Biden needs to strike a careful balance, as further tariffs risk raising prices for consumers, already hit by inflation, and drawing the wrath of China, which could decide to retaliate.

US, the details of the measures. The duties will take effect in staggered increments between 2024 and 2026 and are more targeted than the flat 60% tariff proposed by Trump on the campaign trail. The largest increase is on electric vehicles, with a fourfold jump to a final value of 102.5% (currently 27.5 %). The rate on semiconductors will double from 25 to 50% by 2025, hitting a sector that Biden considers central to his industrial agenda and has subsidized with billions of dollars. Some critical minerals will see a new 25% tariff this year, while natural graphite and permanent magnets will be hit with the same tariff in 2026. Finally, tariffs on some steel and aluminum from China-currently subject to tariffs between 0% and 7.5% - will rise to 25% this year. Beijing's Ministry of Commerce “resolutely opposes” the U.S. president's decision, views the move as “political manipulation,” and urges the Biden administration to cancel the tariff increase and what it calls “wrong behavior.”

Inflation, data improving. For the first time in six months, one of the core measures of U.S. inflation fell in April, a small step in the right direction for the Federal Reserve intent on cutting interest rates before the end of the year. According to government data released last Wednesday, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% from March and 3.6% over the previous year, exactly the figures expected by economists and the lowest figures since December and April 2021, respectively. Markets reacted positively after the release of the data, with Wall Street's major indexes posting new all-time highs. Investors also raised the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

China, measures for the real estate sector. Xi Jinping's regime has announced its strongest attempt yet to rescue China's ailing real estate market by loosening mortgage rules and urging local governments to purchase unsold homes, at a time when authorities are increasingly concerned about the sector's threat to the country's growth. The support package includes a reduction in the down payment required to purchase a home from 20 to 15%, and $42 billion in central bank financing to help state-owned companies purchase excess housing units from builders and convert them into affordable housing. Markets have reacted positively, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange property index up 6.2%. However, it is still unclear whether the plan will succeed in effectively ending the real estate crisis. In fact, the financing announced by China's central bank is only a fraction of what several analysts say is needed to address the imbalance between housing supply and demand.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mozambique, new jihadist attack against the capital Macomia. About 500 jihadists from the Al Shabab group attacked the town of Macomia in the northern province of Cabo Delgado on May 10. The panicked population fled into the forest, seeking protection.
The toll is 10 dead and 700 displaced. Human rights watch reported the use of child soldiers in the attack. Since January, tens of thousands of people have had to leave their homes as terrorist attacks have resumed.

Subsaharan Africa, while many of the hundreds of thousands of migrants who arrive in Italy from Africa and the Mideast are escaping war, conflict and poverty, an increasing number are fleeing possible prison terms and death sentences in their home countries because of their sexual orientation or gender identity, advocates say. Most European countries don't keep statistics on the number of migrants who claim anti-LGBTQ+ persecution as a reason for seeking refugee protection under international law. But non-governmental organisations that track the phenomenon say the numbers are rising as countries pass or toughen anti-homosexuality laws

Aurelia Puliafito 

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Blinken unannounced in Kiev. On May 14th the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, arrived on an unannounced visit in Kyiv to visit Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, after a 60bn dollars US aid package was passed in April. “We know this is a challenging time. But we also know that in the near term the assistance is now on the way […] and that’s going to make a real difference” Blinken said, although actually air defense systems and long-range ballistic missiles have already been delivered. In response, Zelenskiy thanked Blinken and the US for the aid, but also said that “the biggest deficit” for Ukraine is air defense so they desperately needed two more air defense systems or else Russia will keep conducting long-range aerial attacks pounding electricity facilities and causing blackouts.

United States of America, Democrat attacks Biden. “He is making Jews the face of the American war machine. And that is so deeply wrong”. Those were the words of Lily Greenberg Call, an interior department staffer who worked for the presidential campaigns of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and who decided to resign in protest of US support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Call is the fifth mid-senior level administration staffer to make public their resignation in protest of the Biden administration’s military and diplomatic support of the Israeli war against Hamas: “I think the President has to know that there are people in his administration who think this is disastrous […] not just for Palestinians, for Israelis, for Jews, for Americans, for his elections prospects” she said of the war overall and the US support.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina, the memorandum with the US strengthens their geopolitical alignment. On 17 May 2024, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and Argentina's Secretary of State, Diana Mondino, met in Washington to sign the new memorandum between the two countries. But what does it consist of? The commitment of the two parties promotes the strengthening of cooperation and coordination relations through a strategic dialogue. Indeed, in recent months, the Milei/ Blinken relationship can be said to have intensified bilaterally, both regionally and globally. Argentina says it wants to expand its agenda both in terms of trade and investment within what the Argentine secretary calls a government of democracy and freedom. This understanding seems to project an ever closer alliance for the future.

Serena Basso

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

North Korea, new missile tests. North Korea test-fired a tactical ballistic missile with a new autonomous navigation system, which leader Kim Jong Un oversaw and praised for its accuracy and reliability. This launch is part of North Korea's ongoing efforts to upgrade its defense capabilities, including recent tests of cruise missiles, tactical rockets, and hypersonic weapons. The test came shortly after Kim Yo Jong, Kim's sister, denied accusations from Seoul and Washington that North Korea is supplying weapons to Russia for the Ukraine war. Kim Jong Un emphasized the need to strengthen North Korea's nuclear force, aiming for significant advancements by 2025 to deter enemies. The missile test coincided with Russian President Putin's visit to China, suggesting North Korea's intention to garner attention and support from Russia, possibly positioning itself as a military logistics base for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Cambodia, joint exercises with China. Cambodia and China have begun 15-day "Golden Dragon" military exercises involving 1,315 Cambodian and 760 Chinese personnel, along with three Chinese and 11 Cambodian ships. Cambodian army commander Gen. Vong Pisen thanked China for supplying new equipment and upgrading military facilities, including the Ream Naval Base. Concerns have arisen, particularly from the U.S., that China's construction of a new pier at Ream could turn it into a Chinese naval outpost. Despite these worries, Cambodia maintains that its constitution prohibits foreign military deployments, stating the two Chinese corvettes docked for over five months were merely testing the pier and participating in the exercises. China is Cambodia's most significant ally and economic benefactor owing over 40% of its $10 billion foreign debt to China.

Francesco Oppia




WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU, agreement reached on frozen Russian assets. The 27 have reached an agreement on the use of assets and reserves frozen by the Russian Central Bank since February 2022, amounting to approximately 210 billion euros. The 27 will use 90% of the profits - around 3 billion annually - to support Ukraine militarily through the European Peace Fund. The remaining 10% will be dedicated to the country's reconstruction and to developing its defense industry. The agreement still needs formal approval from the EU Council and could provide resources to Ukraine as early as before summer.

(Sofia Ena)

Spain, results of the elections in Catalonia. In the recent regional elections in Catalonia, the Socialist Party led by Pedro Sánchez achieved a significant victory, securing 42 seats out of 135 in the Catalan parliament. This outcome marked a shift as pro-separatist parties failed to reach the 68 seats needed to form a coalition government, something that hadn't happened in over a decade. Junts, the separatist party led by Carles Puigdemont, came in second with 35 seats, while their separatist allies from ERC secured 20 seats.

(Sofia Ena)

The Netherlands, government agreement reached. Almost six months after negotiations began, Geert Wilders, the far-right PVV leader and winner of last November's elections, has announced that an agreement has been reached between the negotiators. The new executive, which has already been described as the most right-wing executive in the Netherlands in decades, is made up of the PVV, the VVB liberal-conservative party, the New Social Contract (NSC) and the Citizens‘ Farmers’ Movement. These parties will have 88 seats out of the 150 in the country's Lower House, thus counting on an important majority, but the coalition's success and resilience could be tested by the confrontations and differences that have already emerged during the negotiations. The details of the new executive's programme are not yet known, but it is certain that there will be a further push to the right compared to the previous government, at least when it comes to migrants and asylum seekers. It is not yet known who the members of the new government and the prime minister will be.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, 15 Member States call for outsourcing the processing of asylum claims. Fifteen EU Member States, led by Denmark (and including Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania), wrote an open letter to the European Commission to ‘find new solutions to the management of irregular migration’ following ‘an unsustainable increase in irregular arrivals’. Among the proposed measures is the outsourcing of the processing of asylum applications to non-European countries, similar to the agreements between Italy and Albania and the United Kingdom and Rwanda. These countries are therefore asking for a further step with respect to the recently approved Migration and Asylum Pact, which modifies the rules of the Union's migration policies, calling, for example, for the establishment of ‘repatriation hubs’, centres outside the EU territory where those awaiting repatriation can be transferred. The European Commission stated that it will analyse the letter and emphasised that in the coming years it will focus on the implementation of the recently approved Migration and Asylum Pact.

(Bianca Franzini)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Putin and Xi Jinping discussed a possible truce in Ukraine during the upcoming Olympics. During a bilateral meeting in Beijing with Russia, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed an international peace conference recognised by Russia and Ukraine, emphasising the need for a political solution to the crisis. Both leaders reiterated their commitment to strengthening military ties and bilateral cooperation, aiming to promote a new balanced and sustainable global security architecture. Zelensky, however, was sceptical about the effectiveness of an Olympic truce, highlighting the risks of violations during the ceasefire.

Estonia, the government is considering sending troops to the rear in Ukraine to free up Ukrainian forces for the counter-offensive in the Donbass. Madis Roll, national security advisor to the Estonian president, revealed that the government would prefer a mission within NATO to show unity and determination. Discussions are ongoing and could influence the currently opposing NATO members. Roll's statements follow those of French President Macron, who had suggested sending ground troops if Russia broke through the front lines, reiterating the importance of preventing a Russian victory for European security.

Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, Gantz's ultimatum. Two of the three main members of the war cabinet severely criticise the Israeli prime minister's handling of the conflict. Among them is the centrist ally, General Benny Gantz, who has imposed a six-point ultimatum on Bibi. These include the definitive release of the hostages, the demilitarisation of Gaza, the return of the communities living around the Strip and on the border with Lebanon, and the establishment of a joint interim administration between Arabs, Israelis, Palestinians and Europeans in the Strip. Gantz has set a deadline of 8 June next, threatening his own exit from the government and trying to coordinate his political action with external pressure from Washington.

Turkey, two Kurdish leaders sentenced. The former leaders of the Kurdish HDP party, Selahattin Dermirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ, were sentenced to 40 and 32 years in prison respectively. The charges include having threatened the territorial unity of the country. The two leaders were particularly active in criticising the work of the current president in the three-year period between 2014 and 2017. They are among the personalities investigated during the cycle of repression following the coup attempt suffered by the AKP leader in 2016, the year both were imprisoned.

Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

New Caledonia, Paris sends army to quell protests. Faced with the violent demonstrations that have swept through New Caledonia in recent weeks, prompting President Macron to declare a 'state of emergency', the Elysée Palace has opted to send ground troops to what has been one of the 'Territoires d'outre-mer' since 1864. According to Prime Minister Attal, sending the army is exclusively for the defence of the archipelago's key infrastructures: first and foremost the main airport of Nouméa La Tontouta. So far, four people have been killed in the protests, including a police officer.

US, new military aid for Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new military aid package for Ukraine; it will cover arms and funds for the domestic arms industry and to support purchases from foreign countries. The package provides for the allocation of funds amounting to approximately two billion dollars. The US government's decision comes following the meeting between Blinken and Zelensky in Kiev, where the Ukrainian president reiterated the importance for the allies to increase military support in the face of the successes of the Russian offensive in the north-east of the country.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union