Framing The World, CXXXXVII Edition
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa, five months after South African police launched a crackdown on illegal mining by barring access to some disused shafts in Stilfontein, a Pretoria court on Jan. 10 forced the government to rescue the hundreds of illegal miners left underground without food or water, who refused to ascend for fear of arrest. As of Jan. 16, rescuers have brought back to the surface 78 bodies and 246 men in poor health, most of whom have been arrested. Many are from neighboring countries, such as Lesotho, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and were lured to the country by the prospect of getting rich by digging in abandoned mines. Police say they have also arrested leaders of the criminal organizations that ran the illegal mining operations.
Mozambique, on January 15 Daniel Chapo, of the Frelimo party, took office as president. In central Maputo, police dispersed dozens of protesters, both opposition and pro-government, with batons, while across the country seven people were killed in the crackdown on protests. Chapo takes the reins of the country at a time of heightened tensions: the opposition led by former presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane continues to call strikes and protests against alleged fraud that would have allowed Chapo to win the Oct. 9, 2024 presidential election. Since protests against the Frelimo government began in October, more than three hundred people have been killed by security forces.
(Aurelia Puliafito)
Nigeria accepted as a partner country in BRICS. Nigeria has been officially accepted as a partner country in BRICS, adding one of Africa's largest economies to the alliance of emerging markets. Brazil, which currently holds the bloc's presidency, announced last Friday that Abuja shares convergent interests with other members, plays an active role in strengthening South-South cooperation, and contributes to the reform of global governance. The new status allows Nigeria to participate in BRICS meetings and events, though it does not grant full membership privileges such as voting rights. BRICS, representing over half of the world’s population and more than 45% of global GDP, now includes nine partner countries: Nigeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan.
Chad. Ruling party wins parliamentary elections. The Patriotic Salvation Movement, Chad's ruling party, secured 124 out of 188 seats in last month's parliamentary elections, which were boycotted by major opposition parties, including the Transformers, who called the vote a "charade." Voter turnout was 51.5%. These elections, the first in over a decade, mark the final phase of the transition to democracy initiated by President Mahamat Idriss Déby in 2021, following the death of his father, Idriss Déby Itno. The vote takes place at a critical time for Chad, which is grappling with security challenges such as Boko Haram attacks and the end of military cooperation with France, a key former ally.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
United States of America, Biden strengthens the cybersecurity. After a number of Chinese-linked cyber-attacks, like a recent breach of the US treasury department and telecommunications systems that compromised communications of the elected President Donald Trump and his vice JD Vance, the Biden administration decided to fortify America’s cyber defenses against such threats. “The goal is to make it costlier and harder for China, Russia, Iran and ransomware criminals to hack our systems” said a senior administration official to the reporters. The main aspects of the order concern an expansion of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s power and a mandate for federal agencies to implement end-to-end encryption for email and video communications.
United States of America, Trump’s isolationism and Taiwan. In response to what Donald Trump said he is considering about Taiwan, to basically withdraw and reduce the support for the island, Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice-president, suggested maintaining a strong support for Taiwan against the threat of Chinese annexation. He said that if the Chinese government was able to take control of Taiwan, smaller Asian countries would no longer feel confidence in US deterrence. In the long run, this would spark a new nuclear arms race: “ultimately nations would feel they have no choice but to develop their own nuclear arsenal” he declared.
(Lorenzo Graziani)
Partial Break in Los Angeles Wildfires, but Return Home Still Far Off. Cooler temperatures and light winds have provided a break for firefighters battling the Los Angeles wildfires, which have already scorched over 40,000 acres. However, evacuees, more than 82,000, won’t be able to return home anytime soon: the affected areas remain hazardous due to toxic materials, gas leaks, and damaged power lines, with an elevated risk of landslides.Firefighters are making progress, but new adverse weather conditions could worsen the situation over the weekend, with strong winds and rising temperatures. Thousands of homes and structures have been destroyed or severely damaged, leaving many without a place to return to. Local authorities are intensifying efforts to secure the affected areas, while concerns over environmental pollution from toxic ash and debris are growing.
(Caterina De Rosa)
Lorenzo Graziani and Caterina De Rosa
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Colombia, tensions in the north. In the department of Norte de Santander, clashes between former FARC and the National Liberation Army (Eln) led to at least 80 dead and 20 injured. There are numerous refugees among peasants and families, some of whom have reached the border with Venezuela, which has said it is willing to take them in temporarily. The deflagration of the clash stems from the desire for control of the illegal trade disputed between the two factions. The Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, has decided to suspend peace talks with the Eln guerrillas, accusing the group of committing war crimes.
Michele Magistretti
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
India, Police in the southern Indian state of Kerala have arrested 44 men accused of raping an 18-year-old girl over a period of five years. The victim, an athlete belonging to the Dalit community, reported that she had been abused by 62 persons, 58 of whom have already been identified, arrested under the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Act and the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences Act, including minors. Authorities are searching for the remaining 14, said PS Nandakumar, deputy superintendent of police in the Pathanamthitta district, where the crimes occurred. The case emerged when the victim confided the abuse to a volunteer during a gender awareness programme.The violence started when she was 13, after being raped by a neighbour. The country recorded more than 31,000 rape cases in 2022, but the conviction rate remains very low.
Pakistan, the party of imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan started reconciliation talks with the government to ease political tensions in the country on the eve of a major corruption verdict against him. Khan, 72, is accused of receiving land as bribes through the Al-Qadir Trust, set up with his wife. His party claims that the fund had educational and not personal purposes. Khan's removal in 2022 aggravated the political instability, which resulted in violent protests that slowed down the country's economic recovery, already supported by a USD 7 billion IMF loan. During the negotiations, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party demanded commissions of enquiry into the events that led to Khan's arrest and the violence of the demonstrations. The government will respond to the requests within a week.
(Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi)
China, population continues to decline. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the country's population has declined for the third year in a row. In 2023, thousands of kindergartens closed, more than 170,000 kindergarten teachers lost their jobs, and kindergarten enrolment plummeted. This demographic decline is also the result of the one-child policy, adopted by the Chinese government for three decades with the aim of curbing population growth. This policy has left a legacy that is difficult to manage: a low birth rate that today Chinese leaders are reportedly trying to reverse. The declining working-age population is also burdening an already underfunded pension system, while China's ageing society is putting further pressure on an already struggling healthcare system. However, after years of debate, the government has decided to gradually increase the retirement age: 63 for men, 58 for women office workers and 55 for those employed in factories.
South Korea, President Yoon arrested. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on Wednesday, becoming the first sitting head of state in the country's history to suffer such a fate. The arrest, which took place after investigators overcame barricades and barbed wire, is linked to charges of insurrection over the failure of martial law on 3 December, which caused severe political chaos. Suspended from parliament after his impeachment, Yoon will formally remain in office until the final decision of the Constitutional Court. His arrest, however, brings to an end weeks of tension between investigators from the CIO, the Corruption Investigation Bureau for Senior Officials, and his security team, which had already blocked an initial attempt to capture him on 3 January. Yoon's lawyers call the arrest warrant illegitimate, arguing that the IOC has no jurisdiction over allegations of insurrection and that the issuing court was incompetent. Currently, the country is led by Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok as interim president, following the impeachment of former regent Han Duck-soo.
(Francesco Oppia)
The phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Last Friday, January 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke on the phone. Trump described it as a “good” phone conversation, adding that he expects to “solve many problems together, and starting immediately.” During the call, the two Presidents discussed “Trade, Fentanyl, TikTok, and many other subjects.” Trump also stated that “President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!” Relations between Beijing and Washington have deteriorated in recent years, and despite Trump’s optimistic words, his statements during and after the election campaign do not suggest a shift in this trend. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has announced that he will send Vice President Han Zheng to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration as a special representative.
Japan will fail to achieve a budget surplus, again. The Japanese government has already announced that it is highly unlikely to achieve a primary budget surplus in the fiscal year 2025. The primary budget balance is an indicator aimed at measuring the portion of government spending on social security policies or major public works that is financed without resorting to debt. This is not new for Japan, which has recorded annual primary budget deficits since 1992. Since 2001, the government has set a goal of achieving a primary budget surplus, although the target date has been postponed several times. The most recent delay had set March 2026 as the period to accomplish this goal, but it now appears that it will have to be postponed yet again. Japan holds the highest dept-to-GDP ratio among advanced nations, at 255%, second only to Sudan by a single percentage point.
(Leonardo Di Girolamo)
Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi, Francesco Oppia and Leonardo Di Girolamo
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Ireland, agreement for new government reached. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the country's two main parties, have reached an agreement to form a new government, resolving the political stalemate following the November elections. Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil) will be the new prime minister, with Simon Harris (Fine Gael), outgoing premier, as deputy and foreign minister. The political crisis had started after Fine Gael lost its premiership, despite the early elections called by Harris to consolidate his power. The declining Greens will not support the government, which will rely on nine independent MPs. The programme, which is still awaiting approval, includes measures on children, pensions, VAT rates on energy bills, and promises to ban imports from the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. A vote will be held on 22 January, after which the new executive can officially take office.
EU, almost EUR 2 billion for humanitarian aid in 2025. On 16 January, the EU announced that it will allocate EUR 1.9 billion to humanitarian aid in 2025, exceeding last year's budget. More than half a billion will go to Africa, with 510 million for sub-Saharan and West Africa, and 95 million for North Africa and Yemen. The Middle East will receive 375 million, for crises in Gaza, Syria and other vulnerable areas. In Asia, 182 million will be dedicated to crises such as the one in Myanmar and to support the civilian population oppressed by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. In Latin America, 113 million will be used for Venezuela, Colombia, Haiti and to address the impact of the violence in Mexico and Ecuador in Central America. 140 million is foreseen for Ukraine, and 8 million for Moldova. There is also 295 million for global responses and 110 million for innovative projects and policy initiatives such as partnerships. Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Lahbib calls for compliance with international humanitarian law to ensure access to aid.
Bianca Franzini
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Banks, a record quarter. Wall Street's big banks released their accounts for the last quarter of 2024, and they all revealed strong increases in profits. JPMorgan saw a 50% increase in profits to $14 billion, while Goldman Sachs doubled its profit to $4.1 billion and Citigroup swung from a loss of $1.8 billion to a profit of $2.9 billion. JPMorgan also posted a record annual net income of $58.5 billion, the highest in U.S. banking history. The gains were fueled by increased trading in stocks and bonds, particularly after the U.S. presidential election, and a favorable environment for the bond market. Banking stocks were all up sharply following the release of the results (Goldman +4%, Citigroup +5%), lifting the entire S&P 500 Index, which posted its best session since November 5.
Inflation, better than expected. U.S. stock and bond markets rallied after inflation data released Wednesday showed a better-than-expected slowdown in price pressures. Overall annual inflation rose to 2.9% in December (from 2.7% in November), in line with expectations, but core inflation, which excludes food and energy, unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.3%. This slowdown - the first decline in six months - reassured investors about a possible inflation comeback and fueled expectations of faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Following this data, and in conjunction with the quarterly accounts of major U.S. banks, the S&P 500 rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq 1.8%, while yields on two-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.26% and ten-year yields to 4.66%.
Germany, a bleak year for automotive. In 2024, global deliveries by the Volkswagen Group fell 2.3 percent to 9.03 million vehicles, mainly due to weak demand for electric cars and growing competition in China, where sales dropped 9.5%. Competition with local manufacturers such as BYD and reduced subsidies for EVs in Europe only compounded the difficulties. Mercedes and BMW, too, posted declines of 3 and 4%, respectively, primarily in China and Europe. To counter these challenges Volkswagen is banking on technology partnerships with Xpeng and Rivian, but 2025 could be even more complicated than last year due to possible new U.S. duties and high production costs in Europe. Nevertheless, positive signs are emerging with orders for new models such as VW ID.7 and Audi Q6 e-tron in Western Europe and an increase in Porsche and Mercedes sales in the last quarter.
Germany, GDP declines again. In November, German industrial production grew by 1.5%, exceeding economists' forecasts (+0.5%). However, on a quarterly basis, output is still down 1.1%. Despite this positive figure, the economy remains fragile: industrial orders fell 5.4% in the same month, although excluding large-scale orders would have risen 0.2%. The high cost of energy and raw materials also undermined Germany's global competitiveness, contributing to the second consecutive year of GDP contraction (-0.2%). The Bundesbank forecasts a weak recovery of 0.2% in 2025, driven by foreign demand. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continues to perform poorly (-3% output) and private investment has fallen 2.8%, while government spending is growing (+2.6%). With an economic stagnation with few historical comparisons, the electoral debate ahead of next month's elections is focusing on deindustrialization, infrastructure and the constitutional limits on government spending.
Leonardo Aldeghi
CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Moldova, the energy crisis continues in Transnistria. In the separatist region of Moldova, a state of emergency had been declared due to the interruption of gas supplies from Russia, following the failure to renew the agreement between Gazprom and Kyiv, which allowed the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory. This situation had led to the shutdown of industries and frequent, prolonged power outages. The energy crisis, exacerbated by low temperatures, also affects the rest of the country. Indeed, while Moldova became independent from Russian gas starting in 2022, it still largely depends on Transnistria for its electricity supply. Meanwhile, Moscow has announced that it will provide gas exclusively to Transnistria as "humanitarian aid."
Russia, agreement signed between Moscow and Tehran. On Friday, November 17, Russian President Putin and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a strategic partnership treaty in Moscow, aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation between the two countries with an anti-Western focus. Particular attention was given to the energy sector, with Moscow pledging to support the construction of new nuclear reactors in Iran. Additionally, the two leaders emphasized the importance of adhering to international law, particularly the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states. Pezeshkian also expressed support for a political resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Silvia Pasetto
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Gaza, the Israeli war cabinet approves the truce. The agreement between Israel and Hamas was finalized on Friday, September 17, in Doha, while the Israeli war cabinet approved it on Saturday, September 18. The plan is divided into two phases: the first involves a prisoner exchange starting at 4 PM on Sunday. In exchange for the release of three Israeli hostages, Israel will release 95 Palestinian detainees. Hamas has committed to providing, within seven days, a list of hostages still alive and to releasing 33 additional captives. The second phase includes the withdrawal of the Israeli military and the implementation of a definitive ceasefire. On this matter, however, Netanyahu remains skeptical, believing the agreement will not be honored. Ben Gvir and Smotrich, opposed to the truce, have threatened to withdraw their support for the government. Nonetheless, Netanyahu managed to convince Smotrich by promising the release of five extremist settlers detained for violence against Palestinians and an increase in security measures in the West Bank.
Matteo Francescucci
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
South Sudan, nationwide curfew after violent riots. Following riots in the capital Juba, the authorities have called a nationwide curfew. The violent protests, which led to the death of three people, are allegedly linked to the alleged murder of several Sudanese citizens in the town of Wad Madani, the latter having been recaptured a week ago by the Sudan Regular Army. Since 2023, Wad Madani had been controlled by a powerful rebel militia: the Rapid Support Forces.
Cuba, First political prisoners released. The Cuban government has initiated the release of the first political prisoners, based on a mediated agreement with the Vatican. Although there is no official communication confirming the link, it is likely that the release of the detainees is connected to the Biden administration's decision to remove Havana from the list of ‘sponsors of international terrorism’. The agreement with the Vatican provides for the release of a number of political detainees, which should facilitate investments by US or international banks and companies on the island.
Davide Shahhosseini
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessia Boni: Latin America
Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Caterina De Rosa: North America
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East
Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East
Lisa Pasolini: Latin America
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East
Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia