In the new issue of Framing, we look at Western Europe, starting from Labour's victory in the UK to the start of the Hungarian six-month presidency of the EU Council, to the slowdown of inflation in the Eurozone. Special attention is then paid to the outbreaks of violence in Sub - Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia.
All this and more in the 134nd issue of Framing The World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
India, concern over promulgation of new penal codes. On 1 July, three new penal codes - the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita Bill, the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita Bill and the Bharatiya Sakshya Bill - came into force to replace colonial-era laws, with the aim of modernising the judicial system, simplifying procedures and improving public safety. These laws introduce harsher penalties for crimes such as mob lynching, terrorism and organised crime, but concerns arise over their potential misuse to suppress dissent and target activists and journalists due to the broad discretionary powers granted to law enforcement agencies. The effectiveness and fairness of these laws will depend on their enforcement, which will have to balance law and order with the protection of individual freedoms, representing a crucial challenge for Indian democracy.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
Jordan, journalist arrested over Facebook post. On the 2nd of July, Ahmad Hassan al-Zoubi, a well-known Jordanian journalist and satirical author, was arrested following a Facebook post that authorities deemed to be in violation of Jordanian Cybercrime Law. The specific content of the post was not disclosed, but it reportedly criticised certain government policies. Al-Zoubi's arrest drew condemnation from international human rights organisations such as Amnesty International and the Committee to Protect Journalists, which argue that such actions stifle freedom of expression. Jordan's Cybercrime Law, which came into force in August 2023 and have since been criticised for their broad and ambiguous scope, are often used to target journalists and activists who express dissenting opinions. "
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
Sierra Leone, a law to end forced marriages. On July 2, 2024, the President of Sierra Leone, Julius Maada Bio, signed a historic law that makes forced and early marriages illegal. This new legislation marks a significant step in protecting human rights in the country, addressing a widespread and devastating practice that involves one-third of marriages, forcing girls under the age of 18 to marry against their will and exposing them to serious health risks during pregnancy, which can lead to fatal complications. The new law signed by Julius Maada Bio represents a victory for the rights of women and girls in Sierra Leone, offering hope for a future where all can live free from coercion and violence.
(Sofia Ena)
Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Eurozone, inflation slows again. Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.5% in June, in line with forecasts by economists polled in a Reuters poll and slowing from the 2.6 % recorded the previous month. According to Eurostat, energy inflation also slowed from 0.3% in May to 0.2% in June while food, alcohol and beverage inflation was unchanged from the previous month (2.6%), as was core inflation, which excludes energy and food, at 2.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde announced that the bank will "take some time" to assess whether inflation has been tamed due to the high uncertainty about "how the nexus between profits, wages and productivity will evolve and whether the economy will be hit by new supply-side shocks." In other data released by Eurostat, Eurozone unemployment remained at a record low of 6.4% in May.
US, labor market expanding. Once again the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in June, although the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payroll positions rose by 206,000 in the month, exceeding forecasts of a 200,000 increase. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% reaching its highest level since October 2021 and representing a mixed signal for Federal Reserve officials considering their next monetary policy move. The rise in the unemployment rate came on the back of an increase in the labor force participation rate, which measure the level of working-age people who are employed or actively seeking work, which rose 0.1 percentage point to 62.6%; These data lend credibility to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut relatively soon, and traders believe September is the most likely date for such a decision.
Wall Street, at all-time highs. The S&P 500 Index rose to a new all-time high on Friday, marking a record close thanks to the latest jobs report that rekindled hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The index advanced 0.54% to close at 5,567.19, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.90% to end at 18,352.76. Both indexes hit all-time highs during the session and closed at record highs, with the S&P 500 recording its 34th record close of 2024. The S&P 500's rally so far this year has been 16.7%, while for the Nasdaq it has been 22.3%. The index has now recorded its fourth positive week in the last five as the investors' believe that possible signs of seconomic weakness in the course of this year will induce the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Tesla, a positive quarter. Tesla shares rose Tuesday to their highest levels since January after the release of second-quarter production and delivery numbers that exceeded analysts' expectations. The EV maker delivered 443,956 vehicles in the second quarter and produced 410,831. The delivery figure was down 5% from the second quarter of 2023, but it still exceeded analysts' prediction that forecast about 439,000 vehicles. For the second consecutive day, Tesla was the top gaining company in the S&P 500 index, up 10.2%. The stock has gained 28% over the past week and is back in the positive for the year, up 1 % since January, after falling as much as 34%.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Kenya: Violent Protests in Nairobi, clashes with Police over Financial Law. In Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, protests continue against the new financial law that would increase the cost of living. On June 25, demonstrators stormed the Parliament. Clashes with the police are ongoing, with repeated use of tear gas against protesters. The main highway to Mombasa and many businesses have been closed due to fears of looting. President William Ruto had promised not to sign the law after the storming of Parliament, but there is concern that he might change his mind. Some protesters are calling for his resignation, accusing him of mismanagement. The police have arrested over 270 people, accusing them of using the protests as a cover for criminal activities. The government has condemned the protests and promised action against those responsible for violence and looting.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Nigeria: suicide attacks in the northeast, at least 32 dead. At least 32 people were killed and 42 injured in four suicide bombings on Saturday in the city of Gwoza, in Borno State, northeastern Nigeria. In one of the attacks, a woman carrying a baby on her back detonated an improvised explosive device at a crowded motor park at 3:45 pm. The suicide bombers also targeted a hospital and a funeral for the wedding blast victims. According to emergency agency head Barkindo Saidu, among the 18 reported dead are children, men, women, and pregnant women. Nineteen seriously injured people were taken to Maiduguri, while 23 others were awaiting evacuation. A separate attack killed two militia members and a soldier, but the authorities did not immediately confirm these deaths.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Democratic Republic of Congo: Attack on Humanitarian Convoy in the East, Two Dead. A humanitarian convoy was attacked last night in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), amid ongoing clashes between the army and the M23 armed group. The British NGO Tearfund reported that two of its staff members are missing, while other sources confirmed two deaths. The convoy was leaving a conflict zone heading north when it was attacked near Butembo, North Kivu province, by youths suspecting rebel infiltration. Five vehicles carrying about fifteen Congolese citizens were set on fire. Tearfund condemned the attack and is working closely with authorities to locate the missing persons, urging all parties to protect humanitarian workers. Local administrator Alain Kiwewa confirmed the attack and the burning of five vehicles but did not identify the perpetrators.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Sudan, ongoing humanitarian catastrophe. More than half of Sudan's population will face "crisis or more severe" conditions until September. An estimated 755,000 people are living in catastrophic conditions in different parts of the country, from Darfur to the capital Khartoum. Another 8.5 million, 18 percent of the population, are suffering from hunger at emergency levels. This is according to the latest analysis by the United Nations Integrated food security phase classification (Ipc).
(Aurelia Puliafito)
Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
Canada, Minister Ng in Ukraine and the “modernized CUFTA”. The Canadian Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, Mary Ng, concluded a 2 day visit to Ukraine, during which she met with Yuliia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s Minister of Economy. Throughout the visit, Ng reaffirmed Canada’s military, economic and political support in the fight against Russia’s illegal aggression and welcomed the official entry into force of the modernized Canada-Ukraine Free trade Agreement, a pact that will enhance the economic cooperation and will support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. The modernized CUFTA will maintain the preferential market access created by the original 2017 CUFTA, but it will also add new sectors of cooperation such as trade in services, temporary entry for business people, telecommunications, digital trade and the environment.
United States of America, the Iranian’s nuclear option scares the US. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has announced new sanctions against three unnamed entities involved in the transport of Iranian petrochemical products, in response to a worrying expansion of the country’s uranium enrichment project, in ways that, as said by Blinken, “have no credible peaceful purpose”. This decision could also be seen as an answer to what Kamal Kharazzi, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said about the renewed conflict between Israel and Lebanon: “we have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine”. “We remain committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon” Blinked said on the matter, “and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome”.
Lorenzo Graziani
LATIN AMERICA
Bolivia, failed coup attempt. On 26 June, Bolivia experienced for a few hours an attempted coup d'état by a small group of soldiers under the leadership of Bolivian army commander Juan José Zuñiga. The rapid episode saw the army attempt to breach the gates of the Bolivian government headquarters with a tank. Bolivian President Luis Arce, with executive power, immediately appointed a new commander José Wilson Sánchez, who ordered the withdrawal of the troops and immediately restored order. After security was restored, Zuñiga was arrested along with 17 others involved, including former Navy Vice Admiral Juan Arnez Salvador. The risk is up to 20 years in prison. The coup attempt undoubtedly stems from a strong instability in the country due to the political tensions of recent months and the ongoing economic crisis.
Serena Basso
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
Myanmar, China-brokered ceasefire violated. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army resumed attacks on regime positions in Shan State in the north-east of the country. The TNLA claims to have already captured more than 30 army outposts and to control the western part of Mogok, whose ruby mines make it a major target. The militias have close ties with China and the offensive is believed to have had Beijing's tacit approval due to growing dissatisfaction with the military regime. The Myanmar regular army does not seem to have been surprised by the TNLA attacks, and appears to have mobilised forces and prepared defences, as well as checkpoints and security patrols, ahead of the new offensive. It is not yet clear what the TNLA's objectives are, and it could be that the group is just trying to expand gains and consolidate positions now that the army is cornered with fighting on several fronts, and before new conscript groups are trained for service.
India, Modi's visit to Russia. The Kremlin said on Thursday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia next Monday and Tuesday and hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia has had strong ties with India since the Cold War and New Delhi's importance as a trading partner has grown since the start of the war in Ukraine. China and India became key buyers of Russian oil as a result of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. Under Modi's leadership, India has avoided condemning Russia's action in Ukraine, emphasising the need for a peaceful solution. Collaboration between Moscow and New Delhi, however, has become problematic since Russia began developing closer ties with China. With the Russian supply line affected by the fighting in Ukraine, India has reduced its dependence on Russian arms and diversified its defence purchases, buying more from the US, Israel, France and Italy.
Francesco Oppia
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
United Kingdom, Labour won the election. The Labour Party won the election held on 4 July in the United Kingdom. It was a very large victory over the Conservative Party, which, in power for 14 years, suffered the biggest defeat in its history. Rishi Sunak, the outgoing prime minister and leader of the Conservatives, acknowledged Labour's victory and congratulated leader Keir Starmer, who thanked voters 'for changing the country'. Labour's victory had been predicted by the polls. The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, quintupled in the number of seats and Reform UK, an extreme right-wing party, also won a seat in the House of Commons. The outgoing Prime Minister regained his seat in Richmond, in the north of England, but several leading Conservatives were not elected.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the European Union. As of 1 July, Hungary took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union, a position that rotates among the EU Member States every six months. The programme of the Hungarian Presidency focuses on seven main priorities: enhancing the EU's competitiveness, strengthening its defence policy, making the enlargement policy coherent and meritocratic, curbing illegal migration, outlining the future of the cohesion policy, promoting a farmer-oriented EU agricultural policy, and tackling democratic challenges. A hot topic is the war in Ukraine: the Hungarian Presidency does not have a mandate to start negotiations on Ukraine, but the Hungarian Prime Minister stated that he could encourage the start of negotiations.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, Hungary's EU Council presidency begins. On July 1, 2024, Hungary officially began its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union. Until December 31, the government of Viktor Orbán will be responsible for leading ministerial meetings in Brussels, coordinating operations, and setting the weekly agenda. The slogan chosen for this semester, “Make Europe Great Again,” echoes the famous motto of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, “Make America Great Again.” This choice reflects the Hungarian government's intent to focus on the renewal and strengthening of the European Union. The priorities for Hungary's presidency include the competitiveness of the single market, defense policies, EU enlargement, combating immigration, the future of cohesion policies, agriculture, and demographics.
(Sofia Ena)
Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena
CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Belarus, five political prisoners released. Five political prisoners were released on the basis of an amnesty granted by President Alexander Lukashenko on the 80th anniversary of the liberation from occupation by Nazi Germany. The release measure is aimed at all those detainees accused of threatening public safety during protests in the summer of 2020, when thousands of people took to the streets to protest against Lukashenko's re-election. According to the Viasna organisation for the protection of civil rights in the country, there are currently more than 1,400 political prisoners in the country.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Libya, italian authorities seize Chinese weapons headed to Cyrenaica: Italian authorities, as part of their commitment to comply with the embargo on weapons bound for Libya and on the recommendation of U.S. intelligence, seized in Gioia Tauro a shipment of weapons from China headed to Cyrenaica on board of the Msc Apolline. The seizure follows the one made on June 18-as reported by Corriere della Sera-which took place in the same way: components of Chinese war drones, disguised as parts of wind turbine parts, were found on board of the supercargo MSC Arina arriving from the Chinese port of Yantian and headed to the port of Benghazi (controlled by General Haftar). The affair could have political implications for the relations between Rome and Benghazi: the Italian government maintains a relationship of interlocution with its counterpart. The seizure confirms the U.S. commitment to actively counter the strategic and military strengthening actions of China and Russia in the area, which increasingly see it as an important part of their plans to gain influence in the Mediterranean.
(Matteo Francescucci)
Turkey, internal tensions regarding the 'Syrian issue': Following the news of a Syrian refugee molesting a little girl, several protests broke out in various areas of the Anatolian country. There were incidents, attacks by Turkish citizens on Syrian individuals. At the same time, in Syria, after the Turkish president opened up to dialogue and the restoration of relations with President Assad, anti-Turkish riots broke out in the enclave of Idlib, where an Islamist faction rules while the Turkish army supports some paramilitary formations. To defuse tensions, the Turkish leadership decided to close border crossings with its Arab neighbour but condemned the xenophobic attacks.
(Michele Magistretti)
Michele Magistretti and Matteo Francescucci
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Iran, new President of the Republic elected. Reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian is the winner of the second round of the presidential election held on 5 July. With the vote of some 16.3 million Iranians, representing 53.3% of the vote, the heart surgeon and former Health Minister won the runoff against the contender from the ultra-conservative wing Saeed Jalili. Although in favor of a normalization of relations with the United States and greater liberalization in the social field, Pezeshkian, politically speaking, remains firmly anchored to the figure of the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei. In fact, the latter, through the 'Guardian Council' body, expresses veto power over presidential candidates and it is therefore difficult for a figure hostile to him to compete in the country's presidential race.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Sahel, successful results in the fight against jihadist terrorism. The armed forces of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have completed on Tuesday, July 2nd, a joint operation in the Tillabéri region (in Niger's northwest, along the border with the other two sahelian partners), neutralizing close to 100 terrorists linked to the Islamic State. This intervention was carried out in response to an armed encounter that took place on June 25th, during which 30 Nigerien and an innocent civilian lost their lives. The jihadist insurrection has been suffering for the last months due to the successes in cooperation between Sahelian countries in the field of security, a cooperation that is being constantly reinforced, especially in light of the summit between the Heads of State of these three nations at Niamey.
(Gonzalo Pereyra)
NATO: a leap forward in relations with South Korea. In light of the recent reinforcement in cooperation between Russia and North Korea, the prospect of sending North Korean weapons to the Ukrainian front and the roughening of tensions between both Koreas, President Yoon Suk Yeol has been invited to attend for the third year in a row to the NATO Summit, to take place from the 9th to the 11th of July at the American capital city. The South Korean government firmly responded to Moscow-Pyongyang collaboration, proposing missile and air defense systems deliveries to Kiev. Despite intentions, the terms of this trade remain undefined, but dialogue at the NATO Summit is expected to clarify
(Gonzalo Pereyra)
Davide Shahhosseini and Gonzalo Pereyra
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America
Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East
Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Serena Basso: Latin America
Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union
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