In the new issue of Framing we cover the outbreak of violent anti-government protests that have erupted in Venezuela, Bangladesh and Nigeria. Special attention is also given to the ongoing clashes in Mali and Sudan and the attack following which more than nearly forty civilians died in Somalia. Ample space is also devoted to the historic exchange of prisoners between the U.S. and Russia and the murder of the Hamas leader.
All this and more in the 136th issue of Framing The World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
Venezuela, violence and repression after elections. After the presidential elections on July 28 in Venezuela, protests erupted due to doubts about the legitimacy of the electoral process, which were also raised by the international community. The Carter Center, one of the international observers present, stated that the elections did not meet international standards of transparency and democratic integrity. During the demonstrations, at least 11 deaths were reported, and the use of lethal weapons was noted. The electoral period was marked by alleged human rights violations, including political arrests, restrictions on press freedom, and internet access interruptions. After the elections, hundreds of arbitrary arrests were reported. Additionally, internet shutdowns were documented, hindering freedom of expression and access to information.
Sofia Ena
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
US, GDP better than expected. After rising 1.4% in the first quarter, US GDP increased by 2.8% (annualized) in the quarter that ended in June, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’s initial estimate. A 2.0% growth was expected by analysts. The results were driven higher by personal consumption, which came in higher than expected (2.3% vs 2.0% expected), sales of durable goods, and government spending, particularly in the defense sector, more than enough to compensate for the negative results of the real estate sector, still dragged down by the elevated mortgage rate. However, economists predict the economy to decelerate in the second half of the year as the labor market is expected to weaken (see below).
US, problems in the job market? US jobs growth slowed significantly in July, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve is committing a policy error in keeping interest rates elevated and sending global stock markets into their worst session in years. On Friday, US non-farm payrolls showed only 114,000 new jobs, much lower than the 185.000 positions expected and the 215.000 12 month average, and unemployment rose 0.2% to 4.3%. This is now half a point its 12-month low of 3.8% and realizes the conditions of the Sahm Rule, which states that such a rise anticipates a recession. The reaction by markets was brutal: the Nasdaq index lost 2.4% on Friday and is now down more than 10% from its highs, thus entering a correction, while the S&P 500 lost 1.8% and is down 5.7% from its all-time highs. Even worse results for Tokyo's Nikkei 225 which suffered its worst session since 2008 (-5.8%).
UK, an interest rate cut. For the first time in four years, the Bank of England cut interest rates and did so by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 5%. The decision was taken with a 5-to-4 majority on the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee. In a statement, Governor Bailey said that "Inflationary pressures have eased enough that we’ve been able to cut interest rates today (…), but we need to make sure inflation stays low, and be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much.” This decision came after contradictory evidence on the state of the British economy: inflation in June was hotter than expected (5.7% vs 5.1%), but also growth estimates for 2024 were upgraded from 0.5% to 1.25%. According to the minutes of the meeting, no specific guidance on interest rates has been agreed upon, with only indications that rate of the monetary easing might be slow. Financial analysts are thus expecting only one further cut before year-end.
EU-UK, opposite data. The results of the S&P Global’s poll of Eurozone purchasing managers indicate that the Eurozone economy has slowed sharply due to weaker than forecast growth in services and deeper declines in manufacturing. The survey signaled that business activity was barely above contraction last month, as its Composite index declined to 50.1, only 0.1 point above the mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading was weaker than forecast by economists, who had expected a slight rise from 50.9 last month to 51.1. The data showed a continued divergence between a downturn in manufacturing and growth in the services sector, with the former dropping further into contraction territory from 45.8 to 45.6, while the latter services fell from 52.8 to 51.9 but remained in an expansion. On the other side of the Channel, instead, UK manufacturing activity hit a 2-year high in July, with the purchasing managers' index for manufacturing rising 0.9 points to 51.8, a 24-month high, and services reaching 52.4 (+0.3).
Leonardo Adelghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Somalia: 32 Civilians Killed in Beach Attack in Mogadishu. A terrorist attack on a beach hotel in Mogadishu has resulted in the deaths of at least 32 civilians, according to Somali police. The attack, attributed to the al-Qaida-affiliated group al-Shabab, occurred on Friday evening. Witnesses reported an explosion followed by gunfire at Lido Beach, a popular area in the capital. A suicide bomber detonated an explosive vest, while five terrorists opened fire on the crowd. The police confirmed that one soldier was killed and another wounded, with the rest of the victims being civilians. The attack also caused 63 injuries. In a separate incident, a roadside bomb killed seven people near the capital. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has declared a "total war" against al-Shabab as the country takes charge of its own security.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Sudan: 22 Civilians Killed in Al-Fashir Bombing. Sudanese paramilitary forces bombed Al-Fashir, killing 22 people, according to witnesses and a hospital source. Al-Fashir, the last city in Darfur outside the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has become a crucial battleground in the 15-month-long war between the RSF and the regular army. The city, strategic for humanitarian aid in a region on the brink of famine, has been subjected to heavy artillery bombardment by the RSF. The bombing of the livestock market and the Redayef neighborhood resulted in 22 deaths and 17 injuries. Fighting for Al-Fashir began on May 10, leading to a siege with hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped. The UN Security Council has called for an end to the siege, and U.S. mediators will attempt new negotiations in Switzerland on August 14 to end the fighting.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Nigeria, protesters clashed with residents in Lagos on Friday during a demonstration against the country’s worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. The protests were mainly over food shortages and accusations of misgovernment and corruption in Africa’s most populous country. Nigeria’s public officials are among the best paid in Africa, a stark contrast in a country that has some of the world’s poorest and hungriest people despite being one of the continent’s top oil producers. "The purchasing power of my salary has been completely eroded,” a protester told The Associated Press. The mostly young protesters chanted songs as they listed their demands, including the reinstatement of gas and electricity subsidies that were cancelled as part of an economic reform effort. Violence and looting were concentrated in Nigeria's northern states, which are among the hardest hit by hunger and insecurity. Amnesty International's Nigeria office said at least nine people were killed by security forces in Nigeria during mass protests against the economic crisis gripping the country.
(Aurelia Puliafito)
Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
United States of America, historical prisoner swap between Russia and the US. On the 1st of August, in what is considered the largest prisoner swap between Russia and the US since the Cold War, 16 people held in Russia were freed, in an exchange that took place at Ankara airport, in Turkey. Putin personally met the Russian prisoners at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport, where he hugged the assassin Vadim Krasikov, held in Germany for the murder of a Chechen in Berlin. On the other hand, among those freed by Russia were Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter accused of spying for the CIA, the former US marine Paul Whelan and the US-Russian journalist Alsu Kurmasheva.
United States of America, Biden’s diplomacy wins. After the release, at Andrews air force base, near Washington, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris met with three prisoners: the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva. “It was great to get on that bus today and see not just Americans and Germans but Russian political prisoners” said Gershkovich when asked how he was feeling. Harris said the deal was an “extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy” and also Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor, glorified Joe Biden, saying “it would not have happened without him”.
Lorenzo Graziani
LATIN AMERICA
Venezuela, popular protests and international tensions after Nicolás Maduro's alleged electoral fraud.
In Caracas, tensions are sky-high between police and protesters over allegations of electoral fraud: on July 28, 2024, with several hours' delay after the polls closed, Maduro declared himself president of Venezuela, sparking a popular uprising that he himself called "an attempted coup." Millions of Venezuelans do not accept the election victory awarded to Maduro by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which is close to the government, but this victory is also being contested internationally after the refusal to publish the official results. There are mounting pressures on the International Criminal Court for an arrest warrant against Maduro for crimes against humanity. Latin America remains divided, with countries like Cuba, Bolivia, Honduras, and Nicaragua promptly congratulating Maduro, while significant concerns have arisen in Colombia and Chile. Conversely, Argentine President Javier Milei has expressed his complete hostility towards this re-election, as have Peru, Uruguay, and Costa Rica.
Peru, the Attorney General accuses President Dina Boluarte of aggravated murder during the repressions which occurred in 2022 and 2023. The allegations against the President and six other ministers pertain to the social protests that resulted in 44 deaths and 116 injuries in nine regions of the country, between December 7, 2022, and February 9, 2023. Among the deaths, there are 41 victims of gunfire and three victims of blunt force trauma.
Alessia Boni
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
Bangladesh, mass arrests of student leaders and protesters. Last weekend, over 9,000 people were arrested in Bangladesh, including student leaders, protest participants, and opposition party members. The arrests were carried out in response to protests against a reform that reserves public employment quotas for the children of 1971 independence war veterans. Since July 16, security forces have continued to use illegal and lethal force against protesters. According to media sources, nearly 200 protesters have been killed and several thousand have been injured. Bangladeshi authorities have been accused of maintaining a climate of repression and fear through excessive use of force to suppress the protests.
(Sofia Ena)
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
EU disburses first funding from Russian assets. Brussels has approved the first payment of €1.5 billion for Ukraine's military support, funded by the proceeds from Russian assets frozen within the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the symbolic importance of using funds from the Kremlin to contribute to Ukraine's security. With these funds, Brussels plans to provide around €3 billion annually to Ukraine, depending on interest rates. The initial tranche of €1.5 billion will be channeled through the European Peace Facility and the Ukraine Fund, with 90% allocated to supporting Ukraine's military capabilities and the remaining 10% to the country's reconstruction.
(Sofia Ena)
EU, emergency support for the Palestinian Authority kicks off. The European Union disbursed a first tranche of short-term emergency financial support to the Palestinian National Authority, following the 19 July announcement in the letter of intent between Brussels and Ramallah. Thus, EUR 150 million was disbursed with the priority of helping to address the financial needs of the Palestinian National Authority and to support its reform programme. The first tranche, which will be followed by another between August and September, will be used for investments in the Palestinian Monetary Authority and will be used to pay the salaries and pensions of civil servants, and to support the most vulnerable families in the West Bank and the occupied Palestinian territories. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that "Our emergency assistance of €400 million supports a substantial reform programme and paves the way for the recovery and reconstruction of Gaza" and that "a strong and reformed Palestinian Authority is central to our common goal of a two-state solution".
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, the first Artificial Intelligence Act in the world enters into force. This is the world's first Artificial Intelligence Act and for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen it is a 'pioneering European framework for innovative and safe artificial intelligence, an approach that puts people and their rights at the centre'. The new legislation will be fully applicable in 24 months: by 2 August 2026 all EU countries will have to comply with the provisions of the new regulation, albeit with some exceptions. The new regulation will assess companies using artificial intelligence according to levels of risk and practices that collect personal user data or manipulate the user's decision-making process will be banned. Given the timing of the law's entry into force and the impact of new technologies, the EU Pact on Artificial Intelligence was launched last November with the aim of facilitating the implementation of the new rules.
(Bianca Franzini)
Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena
CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Major prisoner exchange between the U.S. and Russia since the end of the Cold War in Ankara. Russia and Belarus released 16 prisoners, receiving in exchange 10 prisoners from the United States, Germany, Poland, Slovenia and Norway. U.S. President Joe Biden called the operation "a masterpiece of diplomacy." Among the released prisoners are prominent figures such as Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich, arrested for espionage in March 2023 and sentenced to 16 years, and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, arrested in 2018 and also sentenced to 16 years for espionage. Also freed was Russian Ilya Yashin, a well-known regime opponent sentenced to eight and a half years for criticizing the invasion of Ukraine, and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, who worked for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Federico Cortese
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Israel, the murders of the Hamas leader and Hezbollah commander:Following the death of 12 children in Majdal Shams, Israel responded by directly targeting Hezbollah with a raid in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Two days later, the Shiite party confirmed that Commander Fuad Shukr was in the building struck by the raid, but did not confirm his death. On July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political bureau, was killed in Tehran. The leader was in Iran to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new president of the Islamic Republic, Masoud Pezeshkian. Hamas claimed that Haniyeh was hit by an Israeli raid, while the New York Times reported that his death was caused by a bomb planted “months earlier” inside the building where he had been staying. In response, according to ANSA, Khamenei reportedly ordered a direct strike on Israel. On August 4, the IDF announced that it had eliminated a Hamas commander in Tulkarem, in the West Bank.
(Matteo Francescucci)
The conflict in the Middle East, the reactions of the regional powers to the murder of the Hamas leader: while, of course, the main allies of the Palestinian terrorist organisation threatened and promised revenge, the other actors were divided between a more or less harsh reaction of condemnation. The funeral held in Doha, Qatar, was attended by the Iranian vice-president, a Malaysian minister, the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, and the emir of Doha himself, Tamin Bin Ahmad al-Thani, accompanied by his own prime minister and foreign minister.The Turkish president announced a day of mourning to commemorate the slain Islamist leader. Remarkable was the absence in Doha of the leader of Fatah and the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the other countries of the Arabian Peninsula together with Egypt.
(Michele Magistretti)
The conflict in the Middle East, the American response and Italy’s appeals: In light of recent events and the real risk of the conflict expanding, the Pentagon announced that the U.S. will deploy more warships and combat aircraft to "mitigate the possibility of a regional escalation by Iran or its partners and allies." As almost all diplomatic and consular representations prepare for the evacuation of staff and civilians from Lebanese territory, Rome explicitly requested, last Tuesday, the protection of its UNIFIL contingent stationed in Lebanon, emphasizing the importance of respecting UN Resolution 1701. Defense Minister Crosetto reaffirmed this principle, adding that he has been asking the United Nations leadership "to change the rules of engagement and redefine a strategy for months. Today, time has run out."
(Matteo Francescucci)
Michele Magistretti and Matteo Francescucci
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Bangladesh, more than 10,000 people arrested in anti-government protests. The Bangladeshi government has banned the Islamic Congress, the so-called Jamaat-e-Islami, and its student section (Islami Chhatra Shibir), accusing them of infiltrating extremists in the protests against the quota system for public jobs. The protests, which began on university campuses, spread like wildfire across the country, forcing the government to carry out violent repressions: to date, the toll is 266 dead, over 7,000 injured and more than 10,000 arrested. Despite the fact that the Supreme Court has reduced the quota system, the demonstrations have not ceased, with growing criticism of the authoritarian management of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Venezuela, US recognises Edmundo González Urrutia as winner of presidential election. The US rejected the declaration of the National Electoral Council that had announced the victory of outgoing president Nicolás Maduro with 51.2% of the vote. The opposition, represented by González Urrutia, who got 44% according to official figures, disputed the results accusing Maduro of large-scale fraud. Maduro's victory was particularly controversial as pre-election polls put him at a clear disadvantage. Oppositions and some foreign governments have demanded that Maduro publish electronic voting receipts to prove the legitimacy of the results, but so far no documents have been released.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
NATO: Turkey Once Again Threatens the Unity of the Western Bloc. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has declared that his government does not rule out the possibility of armed intervention in Israel in defense of the Palestinian people. In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has publicly called on NATO to expel Turkey from the alliance. Adding to the wave of adversity against Ankara are prominent figures of the European right, such as Dutch right-wing leader Geert Wilders, who has labeled Erdoğan an "Islamofascist," questioned his mental competence, and called for Turkey's expulsion from NATO. As NATO lacks any mechanism to suspend or expel a member state and considering Turkey's strategic value, it is not expected that the country will leave the alliance.
(Gonzalo Pereyra)
Mali: Progress in the Fight Against Insurgent Groups
On Tuesday, July 30, the armed forces of Mali, together with those of Burkina Faso, conducted airstrikes on the city of Tinzaouatene, in northeastern Mali near the Algerian border. The Sahelian armed forces acted in response to armed clashes between their forces, supported by the Russian Wagner group, and an alliance of Islamist and Tuareg groups, which resulted in numerous casualties. The airstrikes targeted critical logistical infrastructure for the insurgency, and civilians were evacuated to safe areas. This represents a further step forward in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, bolstered by the intense cooperation among the countries in the region.
(Gonzalo Pereyra)
Davide Shahhosseini and Gonzalo Pereyra
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America
Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Federico Cortese: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East
Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Serena Basso: Latin America
Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union
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