Framing The World, CXLVIII Edition

Framing The World, CXLVIII Edition

In the latest issue of Framing, ample space is given to the most significant events of the last few weeks in light of the actions taken by President Trump, who took office on Jan. 20: starting with the cut in humanitarian aid, continuing with plans for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and ending with the exit from the Oms, the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and tensions with Greenland.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Sub-Saharan Africa, hard blow to humanitarian aid. Among the decrees signed by U.S. President Donald Trump at the beginning of his second term is a 90-day freeze on foreign aid programs. In 2024, the United States allocated about $8 billion for humanitarian assistance in sub-Saharan Africa, and some African countries are highly dependent on this aid: in South Sudan they contribute 10 percent of GDP, in Liberia 3 percent. On January 27, Washington also blocked the distribution of antiretroviral drugs bought with U.S. money, including to clinics abroad. As the New York Times pointed out, if the global program against AIDS (Pepfar) were to be stopped, 600,000 people in South Africa would be at risk of dying over the next ten years.

Western Africa, on January 29 the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) made official the exit of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the organization. The three countries, led by coup juntas, had decided to create an alternative bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (Ass) after the sanctions imposed by Cédéao following the coups. They also decided to issue a new biometric passport and create a joint military force of five thousand fighters to fight jihadist groups.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Congo, M23 rebels seize Goma, over 700 killed since Sunday. At least 700 people have been killed and 2,800 injured in clashes for control of Goma, in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the United Nations. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric stated that the death toll is expected to rise in the coming days.The M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda, have claimed control of the city, while the Congolese government insists it still holds 80% of the urban area. The UN has confirmed the presence of Rwandan troops in Goma, raising fears of a regional escalation. In response, the UN has called for an emergency meeting, while the Congolese government is demanding sanctions against Rwanda and the withdrawal of its troops.

Mozambique, EU mission highlights serious electoral shortcomings.

The European Union Election Observation Mission has published its final report on the October 9 general elections in Mozambique, highlighting "serious shortcomings in the electoral process" and proposing 18 recommendations to improve future elections. According to the report, the voter registration process failed to ensure the integrity of the system, while vote counting was marked by irregularities and a lack of transparency. Eight of the recommendations are considered priorities, including reforming the National Electoral Commission and improving results management. Mission chief Laura Ballarín met with President Daniel Chapo, who expressed willingness to initiate electoral reforms. The EU has stated its readiness to provide technical assistance to strengthen democratic institutions.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Trump invites Netanyahu over to Washington. Donald Trump has invited the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House for the first foreign leader's official visit of his second mandate. The discussions will concern how the two states could “bring peace to Israel and its neighbors” and what efforts they should make to counter their “shared adversaries”. Although Netanyahu has been accused by the International Criminal Court the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, therefore it is not forced to capture him. On the contrary, Trump has already lifted a ban imposed by the Biden administration on supplying Israel with 900kg bombs.

United States of America, Trump’s administration cuts down foreign aid. The new US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has ordered a halt to all foreign aid, according to an internal communication at the US state department. The order affects both development assistance and military aid, including potentially foreign aid to Ukraine. Only two countries are explicitly excluded: Israel, with which Trump is bolstering the bond that had already been solidified since the outbreak of conflicts in the Middle East; and Egypt, closer to the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

(Lorenzo Graziani)

The United States’ Exit from the WHO: What’s the Future of Global Health? With the start of the new presidency, the process of withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) has begun in the United States. The decision, which will take effect in January 2026, is a result of what the Trump administration has called “mismanagement of global health emergencies in recent years.” American funding will therefore be withdrawn from the WHO, and the international community has expressed its concerns: without U.S. contributions, many health initiatives could face serious delays. The WHO director has described the move as "a major blow to global health cooperation," with potential negative effects for the United States as well. If this decision becomes final, it would mark a historic turning point in relations between Washington and global health, with the risk that other countries may follow the U.S. example.

(Caterina De Rosa)

Lorenzo Graziani and Caterina De Rosa

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Venezuela, meeting between Maduro and the White House special correspondent. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro called for "a new beginning in relations" with the United States during a meeting with Richard Grenell, Donald Trump's special envoy in Caracas, to discuss the repatriation of migrants to Venezuela. Six US citizens detained in Venezuela in the last few months were subsequently released. Grenell's long trip to the country, according to the White House, focused on Trump's efforts to deport Venezuelans to their home country, which currently does not accept them, and on the release of detained Americans. Despite the meeting, the White House felt it appropriate to emphasize that the United States does not recognize the legitimacy of the third term of the Maduro government.

Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Chinese DeepSeek triggers AI bubble burst in the US. On Monday, January 27, several American tech giants suffered a significant downturn, among which NVIDIA – the US company controlling 90% of the AI microchip market – that lost 17%, nearly $600 billion of its market value: the largest absolute loss ever recorded for a publicly traded company. The Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled its AI model R1 in recent weeks, which seems able to rival 01, the most advanced AI model developed by OpenAI. What makes DeepSeek’s breakthrough even more striking is its claim that it achieved these results with just 5% of OpenAI’s investment and a fraction of the microchips used in the US. Furthermore, unlike ChatGPT, R1 is “open weight”, so free of restrictions, highly flexible and scalable.

China wants to control critical minerals. Between 2000 and 2021, a network of 26 Chinese financial institutions granted nearly $57 billion in loans to 19 low- and middle-income countries, according to data compiled by AidData at the College of William & Mary in the United States. These maneuvers have allowed China to secure long-term control over strategic mineral deposits in resource-rich nations, such as nickel from Indonesia, lithium from Argentina, and copper and cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru. The Economist previously reported that in 2023 alone, Chinese companies invested around $16 billion in overseas mining projects, triple the amount recorded in 2022. The United States is also taking steps in this direction, having launched critical mineral cooperation plans with Canada in 2019 and with Argentina in 2024.

(Leonardo Di Girolamo)

Pakistan, Gwadar logistics hub expanded. The new airport in Gwadar, a strategically important location within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is officially operational. Built with an investment of USD 230 million, the airport is a central element of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the project aimed at transforming Gwadar into a globally significant trade and logistics hub. In parallel, Pakistan is pushing ahead with the construction of a port adjacent to the airport in collaboration with China. The importance of Gwadar lies in its geographical location, being an alternative to the Strait of Malacca, one of the main routes of global maritime trade subject to growing tensions between Beijing and Washington. The opening of the airport, however, has raised concerns in India, where there are fears that the infrastructure could strengthen the Chinese military presence in the region and potentially be used for military purposes.

Taiwan, internal tensions rise. Taiwan is facing escalating political turmoil as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT)–Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) coalition launch rival recall campaigns. The conflict began over budget cuts but has now turned into a broader struggle for legislative control, raising concerns about governance paralysis and democratic stability. While President William Lai Ching-te calls for unity, DPP legislators are mobilizing to recall opposition lawmakers, a move widely criticized as a power grab ahead of the 2026 elections. Public sentiment is largely against mass recalls, with polls showing over 60% opposition, but both sides remain entrenched.

(Francesco Oppia)

Francesco Oppia and Leonardo Di Girolamo

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Denmark asks Europe for help against Trump. Over the past few days, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has undertaken a series of meetings with European leaders to strengthen EU unity and solidarity in facing Donald Trump's renewed ambitions regarding Greenland. Frederiksen visited Berlin, Paris and Brussels, meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. During these talks, support for Denmark was expressed and the importance of respecting territorial sovereignty and the inviolability of borders was emphasised. In parallel, the Danish government announced an investment of around EUR 2 billion to strengthen the military presence in the Arctic. Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede declared that the island is not for sale and promised to pursue a referendum on independence, despite the strong economic dependence on Denmark.

The European Commission presented the EU compass to gain more competitiveness, the EU's new economic doctrine for the next five years. President Ursula von der Leyen emphasised the need to correct weaknesses without abandoning the objectives of the Green Deal, adopting a more flexible and pragmatic approach. The plan is based on three pillars: technological innovation, balancing decarbonisation and competitiveness, and reducing strategic dependence on foreign countries. Among the key measures are the enhancement of artificial intelligence, support for start-ups and a new legal regime for companies. On the energy front, incentives will be introduced to lower costs and accelerate the ecological transition. Five principles will guide the implementation of the reforms: regulatory simplification, single market integration, new financial instruments, skills development and better coordination between Brussels and national governments.

Bianca Franzini


ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, duties for allies as well. President Donald Trump confirmed the imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as of Saturday, Feb. 1, justifying the decision by fentanyl trafficking, excessive trade deficits and subsidies granted to the two countries. Trump stressed that the tariffs could increase over time, but left open the possibility of exempting oil from this measure. In addition, 10% tariffs also went into effect for China, accused of failing to meet commitments on combating fentanyl trafficking. The announcement caused swings in the markets, with significant impacts on the currencies of Canada and Mexico and on the shares of automotive companies such as Ford and GM, which own several plants in the two countries. Both countries have promised to respond with retaliatory tariffs, thus risking generating a trade escalation.

US, record investments. In 2024, the U.S. share of foreign direct investment (FDI) reached an all-time high, reflecting stronger economic growth than Europe and China. The U.S. attracted more than 2,100 new FDI projects, while China saw a significant decline, with fewer than 400 projects. Factors driving the increase include domestic demand and government incentives, such as those related to the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as lower energy costs and the central role of the U.S. in AI research. In addition, the trends of “reshoring” and “friendshoring” to reduce supply chain risks have encouraged the growth of investment from Europe, while, conversely, U.S. investment abroad has fallen to 2600, at a 20-year low.

Eurozone, still struggling. At the end of 2024, the eurozone experienced unexpected stagnation, with GDP growth unchanged in the fourth quarter from the previous period. Business and consumer confidence was shaken by political crises in Germany and France, with GDP declines of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Overall, euro area GDP grew by 0.7% in 2024. The region is struggling to find growth engines, with Germany struggling and fears of punitive trade measures from the U.S., while Spain is the only major economy to post sustained growth (+0.8% quarterly, +3.5% annually). Help could come from monetary policies, with the ECB cutting interest rates again by 25 basis points to 2.75% and signaling that further cuts later in the year are possible, albeit tempered by “significant and probably rising uncertainty.”

FED, rates unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.5% for the foreseeable future. Uncertainty over Donald Trump's policies, including immigration, tariffs and regulation, leads the central bank to caution. Powell said the Fed will wait for details on new measures before assessing their impact on the economy, given that the strength of the labor market and sustained economic growth allow rate cuts to be postponed. After the Fed's decision, Treasury yields rose, while the S&P 500 closed lower. Although Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates and is waiting for clear signals on falling inflation, investors expect one cut by July and a second by December.

Leonardo Aldeghi

CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Belarus, Lukashenko confirmed for the seventh term. On January 26, presidential elections were held in Belarus, and incumbent President Aleksandr Lukashenko secured victory with 87% of the vote. Lukashenko’s victory was already expected, as the other four candidates were actually his close associates and supporters of the current leader. The European Union and the United States have strongly criticized the re-election of the “last dictator of Europe,” arguing that it took place without real opposition—whose leaders are either imprisoned or in exile—and in a country without free and independent media. Meanwhile, on January 26, the Belarusian opposition organized a protest in Warsaw.

Ukraine: North Korean soldiers have supposedly been withdrawn from the front. According to some Ukrainian military sources, the North Korean soldiers who arrived in Russia in November to fight against Ukraine in the Kursk region have not been seen for two weeks. The Pyongyang troops were sent to reinforce the ranks of the Russian army, but they reportedly struggled to adapt to wartime conditions and faced significant difficulties coordinating with Russian forces due to language barriers. As a result, Kyiv claims that nearly half of the eleven thousand troops sent by Kim Jong-un have been killed.

Silvia Pasetto

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Cairo: Joint Statement by Arab Foreign Ministers Condemning Trump’s Remarks. On Saturday, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arab League convened in the Egyptian capital to issue a joint statement strongly opposing former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent remarks. Trump had suggested the deportation of Gaza Strip residents to Egypt and Jordan. Despite the condemnation, Trump doubled down on his stance, asserting that Egypt and Jordan “will do it because we do so much for them,” referencing the military aid provided to both countries. Furthermore, the ministers endorsed Egypt’s proposal to hold an international conference in collaboration with the United Nations to facilitate the reconstruction of Gaza. The meeting reaffirmed these nations’ commitment to pursuing a “two-state solution.”

(Matteo Francescucci)

Turkey, new wave of repression: In recent weeks, the country has experienced a new wave of arrests. Within a few days, a number of minor CHP members involved in municipal politics, such as Rıza Akpolat, were arrested. Another arrest that has caused a stir and indignation is that of the leader of the Victory Party, Ümit Özdağ. The charges are blatantly specious and politically motivated. Also in the ‘gunsight’ of the judiciary controlled by the ruling party, the Islamist AKP, are the two opposition leaders, the charismatic mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoğlu, and the CHP leader, Özgür Özel.

(Michele Magistretti)

Matteo Francescucci and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Trump Warns BRICS: No New Currency or Face 100% Tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened BRICS nations with 100% tariffs if they attempt to create an alternative currency to replace the U.S. dollar. His statement echoes a warning issued after his re-election. Meanwhile, BRICS discussions on a common currency have gained momentum following Western sanctions on Russia, though the U.S. dollar remains dominant in global markets. Trump is also considering 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as part of his strategy to curb illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking into the United States.

U.S.-Greenland Tensions: France Discusses Possible Intervention. France has initiated talks with Denmark on a potential troop deployment to Greenland in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex the territory. However, Copenhagen has shown no interest in pursuing the option, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said. Meanwhile, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is meeting with European leaders to strengthen support for Denmark’s sovereignty. Barrot reaffirmed that France would be ready to act if requested but dismissed the likelihood of a U.S. invasion of the Arctic territory.

Gonzalo Pereyra

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessia Boni: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Caterina De Rosa: North America

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Gonzalo Pereyra: Terrorism and International Security

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Leonardo Di Girolamo: Asia and Far East

Lisa Pasolini: Latin America

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Matteo Francescucci: Middle-East and North Africa

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Ratì Mugnaini Provvedi: Asia and Far East

Silvia Pasetto: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia