Translated by Gaia Baraldi
While global attention is catalyzed by the ongoing conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States, another powder keg is exploding in the heart of Central Asia. The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has become the front line of what Islamabad authorities are now calling an "open war," marked by air raids, drone attacks, and a humanitarian crisis that is severely impacting the civilian population.
The “Red Line” and Military Escalation
The current spiral of violence reached a point of no return in mid-March 2026. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari declared that a “red line” had been crossed after a series of drone attacks—attributed to militant groups based in Afghanistan—hit civilian areas and military installations in Pakistan.
Islamabad lost no time in responding: Force launched massive airstrikes against what it described as a “military base and technical support infrastructure” in Kandahar, as well as targeting fuel depots belonging to the private company Kam Air, which also served humanitarian agencies such as the UN and the Red Cross. According to Pakistani sources, the targets were hideouts of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), but the Taliban government denounced the involvement of civilian structures, including a rehabilitation center for drug addicts.
Civilians under siege: the human cost of the conflict
The United Nations has confirmed the deaths of dozens of civilians since hostilities began at the end of February. In the latest airstrikes alone, Afghan authorities reported that at least six people, including women and children, were killed in Kabul and in border provinces.
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) estimates that more than 115,000 people have been internally displaced in Afghanistan due to the fights. Basic infrastructure—clinics, schools, and markets—has become collateral damage from mortar fire and airstrikes, worsening an already precarious situation for millions of Afghans who depend on humanitarian aid.
The Domino Effect of the Iran War
The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict is not occurring in an isolated vacuum. The military escalation in Iran has created a "multiplier effect" on the crisis. Iranian instability risks encouraging separatist movements and militant groups (such as ISIS-K) operating between the two countries, exacerbating border instability. The blockade of trade routes and rising fuel costs linked to the Gulf War are causing prices for basic goods in Afghanistan to soar, making food unaffordable for the poorest families, exacerbating an energy and food crisis. Finally, this new escalation is increasing the forced return of refugees: thousands of Afghans are fleeing Iran because of the war, returning to a homeland where basic services are collapsing under the weight of Pakistani bombs.
Towards an out-of-control crisis
The difficulty in assessing how far the latest escalation might go stems in part from the lack of verified information available from both sides. Although regional diplomacy is attempting quiet mediation, war rhetoric of both countries suggests that neither side is ready to back down.
For Pakistan, the fight against the TTP is a matter of national survival; for the Taliban, defending territorial sovereignty is the cornerstone of their legitimacy. In the middle, an exhausted civilian population remains, paying the highest price for an increasingly violent geopolitics and less open to dialogue.
Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2026