Moscow’s “enemies”: Kremlin’s alliances against Europe and the West

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

Promptly responding to the confiscation of 300 billion in Russian assets in Europe, intended for Western aid to Ukraine, Moscow nationalized Ariston and of the German Bosch, with both acquisitions already approved by the Russian president.

Moscow’s response to the White House’s proposal to demobilize interests generated by confiscated Russian assets in Europe (estimated around 3 billion, for 2024 only) was not long in coming. So, on April 26^th, Vladimir Putin signed the expropriation, which carries nostalgic echoes of Sovietism, of the Russian branches of Ariston and German Bosch, which were temporarily transferred to the state-owned company Gazprom. This compulsory “nationalization” falls within the strategy of Moscow to counter international sanctions following Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24^th, 2022. Since then, over 180 companies have come under total Kremlin control.

With the perspective of other forced expropriations of foreign companies in Russian territory, G7 leaders, meeting under the auspices of the Italian G7 presidency, chose to be cautious. Alternative measures are being evaluated during the summit to obtain funds to send to Kyiv, to support both the war effort, and the post-war reconstruction. This measure also aims to avoiding potential retaliation from the Kremlin.

Meanwhile in Brussels, among the Permanent Representatives of the 27 EU Member Countries, a preliminary “agreement in principle” was reached on the profits derivable from financial assets confiscated from the Russian oligarchs: 90% of the funds will be used for military aid to support Kyiv, with the remaining 10% allocated to funding humanitarian project in Ukraine. The hope is for final approval by the end of June, as Hungary assumes the rotating Presidency of the European Council starting from July. Hungary is already well-known for being the most pro-Russian European country, potentially making it resistant to providing new aid to the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army has already been in great distress for months, with several difficulties in containing the Russian advance on east, particularly following the failure of last summer counter-offensive.

The compromise agreement reached in Europe will exclusively address the accrued interests on the blocked bank accounts, rather than the entire bank accounts, which the US has persistently sought for definitive confiscation. Actually, doubts have arisen regarding the lawfulness of confiscating Russian “frozen” assets in European banks: “transitioning from the frozen asset to their confiscation and subsequent disposal could risk undermining the international order that every country seeks to preserve”. Moreover, these actions could harm the financial credibility of some EU Countries, thus creating a precedent that could be deemed too dangerous for the West to accept. In an international system lacking police forces – or equivalent authority capable of guaranteeing justice – the equilibrium depends solely on mutual respect for the principles of international law on part of all the involved actors. A very labile and imperfect equilibriu(s)m.

Changing the world order

After two years, support for the Ukrainian invasion remains strong in the Russian society the. This support is reinforced by Russia’s increasing distance from the West. Engaged in a conflict to preserve their perceived glory and rhetoric, Moscow is focusing on prompting population growth and imperialistic ideals.

Ma non sono solo i pericoli insiti nella propaganda moscovita ad insidiare i governi occidentali. Agenzie di intelligence europee avvertono infatti dell'aumentato rischio di atti di sabotaggio in Europa preparati da Mosca. Negli ultimi anni, agenti del Cremlino hanno già lanciato attacchi sporadici sul continente; adesso però, aumentano le prove di uno sforzo più aggressivo e concertato, con un elevato potenziale di danno a siti militari e logistici (come dimostra il recente arresto di due cittadini russo-tedeschi in Baviera, con l'accusa di aver complottato per attaccare punti strategici in Germania per conto della Russia).

But these are not the only dangers embedded in the Russian propaganda that can undermine Western governments. European intelligence agencies are warning of the risk of acts of sabotage in Europe, prepared by Moscow. In recent years, Kremlin agents have already launched sporadic attacks on the continent, though now efforts for more aggressive and focused attempt are increasing. There is as heightened potential to endanger military and logistic sites, as demonstrated by the recent arrest of two Russian-German citizens in Bavaria, accused of conspiring to attack strategic points in German, on Russia’s behalf.

Moreover, Moscow uses Belgrade to penetrate the European continent, exploiting Serbian pan-Slavic sentiment. In the Western Balkans, what is causing most concern to the European governments is the soft power they wield in Serbia – which refuses to apply sanctions – more that Russian military power. In the coming years, the Kremlin will seek to hang onto its Serbian ally, to use it as a Trojan horse to inflame the “Balkan powder keg”.

And the anti-western rhetoric of the Kremlin is conquering Africa too. Moscow already has, directly or indirectly, influence in the Sahelian region, and now is targeting Senegal with an anti-French perspective.

Russia is seeking to destabilize the fragile world order whenever it can. An order that is more and more destabilized, among the greatest power of the world, engaged in an imperial and existential struggle among themselves. 

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