Translated by Elisa Sparvoli
Nearly four years after the end of the war in Tigray, fought between 2020 and 2022, the Ethiopian region is still facing the consequences of a complex and illusory peace. The conflict was a humanitarian catastrophe, largely ignored by the Western media. What was meant to be a period of post-war reconstruction has instead turned into a crisis, with a serious risk that the war has never truly ended.
The Pretoria Agreement: Why Peace Failed
The civil war broke out on November 4, 2020, following an offensive launched by the Ethiopian federal government, led by Abiy Ahmed, against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). It is considered one of the most cruel and least reported conflicts of our time.
According to data gathered by the African Union and the work of the Italian diplomat Giuseppe Mistretta, the death toll is estimated at between 600,000 and 800,000, alongside four million displaced people and 100,000 victims of sexual violence, which was used as a weapon of war. The conflict also caused extensive damage to the country, already considered one of the poorest in the world, destroying hospitals, schools, places of worship and government buildings.
The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022 through African Union mediation, ended the conflict but led to a fragile "armed truce" rather than genuine peace. The agreement's shortcomicngs stemmed from several factors: the exclusion of key actors from the peace process, such as Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki (an ally of Addis Ababa), the Amhara ethnonationalist army (Fano) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). These problems were compounded by the failure to fully disarm the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) and by territorial disputes in western Tigray over the strategic Welkait/Humera corridor.
In July 2026, the Tigrayan authorities declared that the Pretoria Agreement had "collapsed", accusing Abiy Ahmed's regime of besieging the region, politically excluding the Tigrayan authorities and launching direct drone and artillery attacks on Mekelle, the regional capital, causing civilians casualties and reigniting a conflict that had never truly ended.
The failure of peace reflects deep political and institutional fragmentation, not only within Tigray but also at the federal level. Abiy Ahmed, who came to power in 2018 with a reformist agenda, presenting himself as “the new face of peace in Africa”, and later won the Nobel Peace Prize, remains Ethiopia’s prime minister and is promoting a “National Dialogue” on constitutional reforms. The initiative has been criticised by international observers and the Amhara Fano army as an exercise in “performative politics”, calling for a boycott.
At the same time, the regional administration is experiencing great instability after the TPLF effectively replaced the Interim Regional Administration in May 2026.Established under the Pretoria Agreement, the interim administration remains the only regional authority recognised as legitimate by Addis Ababa.
The Humanitarian Crisis: the Tragedy of the "Invisible"
As Amnesty International reported, the war and the renewed hostilities have once again exposed civilians to the risk of serious human rights violations: 80% of the population needs humanitarian assistance, amid a severe shortage of international aid.
Today, the entire region resembles a huge camp for displaced people, particularly in Mekelle and Adwa, where hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people are unable to return to their homes, especially those in disputed or still-occupied areas of western Tigray.
The population also lives in a state of uncertainty, caught between displacement and complete economic and information isolation. The economic decline (or "slow death") is accompanied by the paralysis of the social and educational systems, marked by early school closures and overstretched reception facilities struggling to support orphans, former child soldiers and women who have suffered abuse.
Gender-based violence has reached alarming numbers: sexual violence has been used as a weapon of war, with an estimated 100,000 victims of mass rapes and systematic abuse to traumatise people. Treating survivors' psychological and physical trauma is particularly difficult in a health and social care system devastated by the destruction and looting of hospitals.
The devastating consequences of the war are compunded by extreme weather events, including hailstorms and drought, affecting the region. The World Food Programme (WFP) has highlighted that, despite Ethiopia's economic growth, the deadly combination of climate change and conflict keeps humanitarian needs extremely high. Data also point out that more than 60% of Ethiopia's population experienced severe food insufficiency.
In response to this crisis, an emergency response plan for Tigray was developed, requiring $626.8 million to assist around 3.7 million people. From the total amount, however, only 3.38 million have been secured, highlighting the severe funding shortfall.
As Tigere Chagutah, Amnesty International's Regional Director for East and Southern Africa, has warned, the situation is worsened by the absence of judicial proceedings for war crimes and by the termination of the mandates of the UN International Commission on Ethiopia and the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights’ Commission of Inquiry on Tigray.
Is Tigray a "Laboratory of Barbarity"?
As Giuseppe Mistretta has shown, Tigray is a contemporary example of how the formal end of hostilities does not automatically bring a return to peace without economic reconstruction, justice for the crimes committed and protection of the population’s rights. Despite investigations documenting systematic human rights violations, victims are still waiting for justice.
In this context, several factors hinder a resolution of the conflict, chief among them the lack of international attention and meaningful engagement. Faced with a real risk of military escalation, international actors including the European Union, the United States, Canada, Norway and the United Kingdom have recently expressed concern.
These persistent structural shortcomings prevent a region struggling to survive from finally looking towards a peaceful future.
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