The collapse of the Assad regime and Europe: between new European repatriation policies and uncertainties about refugee protection

Translated by Federico Emanuele

The collapse of Bashar Al-Assad's regime last December marked a turning point for Syria, leaving the country in deep political instability and placing people at the center of this transformation. Millions of citizens have experienced years of repression firsthand, and the fall of the regime does not automatically erase their suffering nor restore the lives of those who were forced to flee. In the hours that followed, the movement of many people towards Damascus and the enthusiasm of many young people finally being able to define themselves simply as "Syrians," rather than "supporters of the Syrian opposition", made one deep sentiment evident: the desire to reclaim their land and the hope that it could become a fairer and safer place for everyone.

However, individual aspirations cannot be transformed into a decision imposed from above. While the spontaneous return of some Syrians reflects a legitimate desire, it is entirely different to use this phenomenon to justify the forced repatriation of those who still need protection. In the days following the fall of the regime, several European governments suspended the processing of asylum applications from Syrian citizens and even expressed their intention to initiate repatriation plans. Nevertheless, this political decision cannot be equated with the individual will to return, as not all Syrian refugees are in a position to do so safely, especially given the growing instability.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, in the first six months of 2024, the European Union counted approximately 1.2 million Syrian refugees and nearly 124,000 people awaiting a response to their asylum application. In a context where border control and migration management remain priority issues, some European governments have interpreted Assad's fall as a potential factor in reducing migration from Syria.

European reactions: between suspensions and repatriation plans

Immediately after the regime's collapse, some European countries suspended the processing of asylum applications from Syrian citizens. Among them, Austria immediately spoke of a plan for an "orderly deportation" of Syrians who had already been granted asylum, while Greece described the operation as a "return of Syrians to their homes". These initiatives were joined by France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Switzerland, and Italy. In the European Union, asylum management falls under the competence of individual member states.

In some countries, such as Germany, legislation allows for the suspension of asylum procedures to reassess the situation in a country of origin in the event of significant political changes. In the past, Sweden had adopted a similar measure towards Afghans after the Taliban took Kabul in 2021. In December, the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, reiterated the criteria to be followed, emphasizing the importance for member states to adhere to EU asylum regulations and to ensure individual assessments for each request. However, the right to postpone the examination of applications in the event of significant changes in the country of origin was acknowledged.

The Justice and Home Affairs Council of March 5

During the Justice and Home Affairs Council on March 5, 2025, ministers examined the implications of Syria's political transition on migration. On the one hand, they discussed how member states could support Syrian citizens who clearly wish to return to their country. On the other hand, they addressed the implementation of repatriation measures for Syrian citizens considered a threat to public security or with criminal records.

Regarding voluntary return, several member states expressed support for the idea of organizing "go-and-see" visits to Syria, offering Syrian citizens residing in the EU the opportunity to temporarily visit their country of origin to assess conditions before making a definitive decision to return. This approach would allow refugees to gather firsthand information on the economic, social, and security situation without losing the protection status that currently guarantees them rights and assistance in host countries. Some governments highlighted how these visits could be a first step towards facilitating the gradual reintegration of those who wish to return, provided that adequate security standards are met.

The new repatriation regulation presented by the Commission

Following the Council meeting, on March 11, the European Commission proposed a common European repatriation system. This system is based on a regulation that establishes common procedures for issuing repatriation decisions and a European repatriation order issued by member states, helping to reduce fragmentation within the Union.

Clear rules will be established on forced repatriation for "people whose stay in the EU is irregular, who do not cooperate, flee to another member state, or fail to leave the Union's territory within the deadline set for voluntary departure". This will promote voluntary repatriation. Member states will have stricter obligations for returnees, such as cooperation during the process, with consequences in case of non-compliance. Additionally, fundamental rights and protection for vulnerable people during repatriation will be guaranteed. New measures will limit abuses and the risk of escape, allowing for longer detentions and setting specific rules for those who pose a security risk.

Furthermore, there will be the possibility of transferring asylum seekers to countries other than their own, opening new scenarios for migration management within the EU. If approved, this regulation will allow member states to outsource part of the repatriation processes, transferring migrants to third countries through bilateral agreements rather than sending them directly to their countries of origin. The adoption of this policy reflects a broader European trend towards border externalization, which began with the creation of repatriation centers in external countries such as Albania.

This proposal fits into a complex framework in which the management of Syrian refugees, who have been one of the largest and most vulnerable refugee groups in Europe for years, has become a primary concern.

However, the proposal to transfer migrants to third countries they have never visited raises questions about respect for human rights. In many cases, Syrian refugees - and refugees in general - despite being driven by the desire to return to their country, are forced to remain in Europe due to security concerns or the lack of true stability in their homeland. The creation of "repatriation hubs" in third countries could not only undermine the principle of non-refoulement, which states that a refugee cannot be expelled, deported, or transferred to territories where their life or freedom would be threatened, but also expose migrants to harsh and difficult detention conditions.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2025