Geopolitical tensions over Greenland: a consequence of climate change

Translated by Mariateresa Tauro

In recent months, US President Donald Trump has shown growing interest in Greenland, even going so far as to threaten to occupy it.

The president has justified his imperialistic ambitions by stating that the security of the Arctic region is compromised by the ambitions of China and Russia. However, Trump's interest in Greenland certainly has to do with the incredible mineral wealth that the region has to offer, as well.  This wealth will, in fact, become increasingly accessible thanks to the melting of glaciers, a result of climate change that Trump himself has always denied. In fact, the 2023 report by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland highlighted how Greenland's subsoil is extraordinarily rich in raw materials such as graphite, hafnium, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum, titanium and zirconium, as well as rare earth elements. Nevertheless, these resources have not yet been exploited to their full potential due to hostile climatic conditions, which made extraction and transport difficult. Efforts have also been made to avoid overexploiting Greenland's subsoil resources, partly due to environmental conservation policies. Greenland is also rich in oil (approximately 90 billion barrels) and natural gas (47 trillion cubic metres), making it a territory of great economic and strategic interest, and therefore hypothetically subject to geopolitical disputes.

Greenland's economic and strategic potential is becoming increasingly lucrative, taking into consideration the changes that climate change is bringing to the natural landscape, which, as already mentioned, is one of the main obstacles to the full exploitation of the region's wealth. In fact, most of Greenland's territory is covered by a thick ice sheet. But rising temperatures due to climate change, which is occurring at a faster rate in the Arctic than in other areas of the planet, have brought about significant changes to the territory. For example, vegetation has doubled since the 1980s, causing an increase in carbon release, which in turn contributes to the melting of the ice cap. This will likely lead to the emergence of new areas of land, increasing Greenland's arable land and exploitable surface area. Climate change is also responsible for rising ocean temperatures, which will have an impact on fishing activities, making the waters surrounding Greenland more profitable from this point of view as well.

The transformations that Greenland is undergoing as a result of climate change highlight several issues, especially related to geopolitics. Given that climate change makes Greenland's natural resources more easily exploitable, hegemonic powers such as the United States are showing increasing interest in this land, even threatening its admission. This situation naturally undermines the right to self-determination of the Greenlandic people, where, for some years now, there has also been a rise in movements seeking independence from Denmark itself.

In addition to being threatened by the expansionist ambitions of the major powers that want to exploit their resources, Greenland indigenous peoples, are also being harmed by rising temperatures and melting ice, which risk hindering their economic activities such as traditional hunting. Furthermore, as highlighted by World Weather Attribution, Greenland's infrastructure, like Iceland's, was designed for very low temperatures; therefore, melting ice is likely to cause flooding. Finally, it should be remembered that the changes Greenland is undergoing are a consequence of climate change, which is occurring at an ever-increasing rate: according to Nature magazine, the Arctic region is warming four times faster than the rest of the world. Between 15th and 21st May 2025, for example, Greenland's ice melted 17 times faster than average due to a heatwave, according to World Weather Attribution.

Therefore, the difficult situation in Greenland shows how climate change and geopolitics are intertwined: environmental conditions risk altering the geopolitical balance, in this case jeopardising the security and autonomy of the Greenlandic population. This situation highlights more than ever that the climate issue is also a strictly political one.

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