Introduction
For over two centuries, the Monroe Doctrine has been the cornerstone of American foreign policy. This philosophy was formulated by US President James Monroe, who, in his seventh annual message to Congress on 2 December 1823, issued a warning to the European powers. Indeed, according to President Monroe, the monarchies of Europe had to understand that the role of the United States on the international stage was changing and that, from then on, the Western Hemisphere would become Washington’s sphere of interest. European colonial claims on the American continent could no longer be tolerated, as this was becoming an area exclusively reserved for Americans to pursue their interests. Starting from the southern border of the USA, the so-called US backyard began; on this basis, the US government felt it could justify interventions and incursions throughout Central America and the Caribbean, extending as far as Latin America.
The approach of the Monroe Doctrine has not always been consistent – that is to say, it was not a constant feature of Washington’s policy – yet it has always remained in the background. And today, in a geopolitical landscape completely different from that of the 19th-century European colonial powers, it seems to have returned to the fore.
The Silk Road Strategy: China in Latin America
Today, in 2026, the United States’ backyard is no longer a stars and stripes area, but the main theatre of an economic cold war between Washington and Beijing. Whilst the old doctrine was designed to counter European colonial vessels, the new Monroe Doctrine 2.0 must tackle the challenges of the 21st century. There are no colonial troops, but engineers and capital.
China’s highly ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the new Silk Road, has not excluded the Caribbean region: to date, as many as fifteen CARICOM countries – an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1973 to promote economic integration and cooperation amongst Caribbean nations – have joined Beijing’s project. Antigua and Barbuda, Jamaica, Guyana and Dominica are now China’s trading partners: in 2013 imports from China to these regions reached 4.2 billion dollars.
Beijing’s ambitions are not limited to trade, but also include the financial sector. Capital flows from China are welcomed in the Caribbean countries. The stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) from China directed towards the Caribbean amounted to $62.1 billion in 2012 (the last year for which data is available),. A large proportion of this stock was channelled into the tax havens of the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands.
China is also actively involved in financing infrastructure projects: between 2005 and 2012, China Development Bank lent 4 billion dollars to the Bahamas and Jamaica for the construction of roads and casinos and for coastal reconstruction.
Washington’s comeback: diplomacy and reshoring
Unsurprisingly, the US government’s response was not long in coming. Over the last few years, Washington has found itself having to dust off a Cold War-era approach – a Monroe Doctrine adapted to the needs of the times.
The strategy is based on near-shoring, that is, shifting manufacturing production from Asia to neighbouring countries, such as Mexico and the rest of Central America.
The US objectives are clear: reduce dependence on China, and thus secure its own reliable and accessible “supply chain”; as well as attempting to offer neighbouring countries an alternative to loans from Beijing.
Conclusion: one continent, two masters?
What the American continent risks in 2026 is fragmentation. The countries of the Caribbean and Latin America find themselves caught between two fires, needing to learn how to deal with the relationship between China and the United States.
The battle for the Caribbean and Latin America is not merely a trade dispute; it is the ultimate test of whether the United States is still capable of projecting its hegemony across its own hemisphere, or whether the Monroe Doctrine is destined to become a relic of the past.