Translated by Maria Maddalena Zizzo
The news of the last few days shows how Moscow continues its attacks in Ukraine, hitting logistical and civilian targets in several cities of the country such as Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv, also causing deaths and injuries. In the meantime, Ukraine is not standing idly by and, on the contrary, is conducting a series of drone operations against various logistical and strategic targets in the Russian Federation. In a single night, more than 400 drones were launched towards Moscow, injuring several people and damaging several residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
Despite the current internal political crisis following the Fedorov case, Ukraine is therefore showing great determination, and Kiev claims that its attacks on the Russian capital aim at weakening Moscow's offensive capabilities and pushing the Kremlin to negotiate.
Over the past few weeks, Russia has also found itself managing an unprecedented crisis in fuel supply, a consequence of months of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. This oil crisis has caused fuel prices to rise disproportionately and has forced local authorities to organize rationing. As long queues formed at gas stations, Moscow began importing oil from Belarus and India, diverting supplies to the capital to ensure its stability, to the expense of the most peripheral areas. Meanwhile, in the last few months, occupied Crimea has also been affected by heavy disruptions in oil supplies, due to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea's main routes with other occupied areas and the Russian region of Rostov.
The issue of Crimea is by no means secondary: always a favourite summer destination for many Russians, this summer it will hardly be chosen by them for their holidays. If compared to the horrors of the war, it is certainly a frivolous and insignificant story, but it actually has a symbolic weight. In fact, Putin has always claimed Crimea as Russian land, and part of his political legitimacy is based on this statement. Unable to reach their favourite Black Sea vacation spots, many Russians may begin to question their president's achievements.
Furthermore, some experts have noted that the number of missiles and other armaments used in recent weeks by Russia is extremely high, suggesting that Moscow is probably drawing on its reserves. On the other hand, the mass has always been one of Russia's major workhorses, which can count on a potential number of weapons and soldiers, that is unthinkable for other countries. According to Mediazona , Russia would have lost about 234,000 soldiers in the war, without counting the missing and wounded people, increasing the concern about a new possible mass mobilization, as it happened at the beginning of the war. Official mobilization that Putin wants to avoid, well aware that public opinion would react very negatively.
All of this suggests that the war is not going well for Moscow. To the small successes on the ground, the likely dissatisfaction and discontent among the population are added, so much so that polls show a significant drop in the president's approval rating. According to the FOM, a Kremlin polling institute, the Russian leader's approval rating dropped by 6 points in the week of July 5th-12th, 2026, to 66%. A very high percentage for any other European leader, but an all-time low for Putin, whose approval rating had never fallen below 70% since November 2025, reaching a peak of 79% in May 2025, during the war. Moreover, at the moment, only 24% of Russians would say they are in favour of continuing the war.
The drop in consensus is certainly linked to the fuel crisis, and Putin found himself forced to publicly acknowledge for the first time the existence of the crisis that caused a surge in prices and rationing. Putin's position is certainly not easy to undermine but, in September, Russia will vote to renew Parliament, the State Duma. While the final outcome of the election appears, as always, a foregone conclusion, the problems that Russia is facing due to the war in Ukraine could still have a long-term impact on the balance of the country and in the people's trust in their president.
During these World Cup days, it seems strange to think that in 2018, eight years ago, it was successfully hosted by Russia. At that time, Russia was opening to the world and hosting foreign teams and fans, while the shadows of the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass – which began in 2014 – did not yet foreshadowed the catastrophe that would begin four years later. A historical and political situation that has now changed forever.
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