When the war changes the holidays

A conflict ceases to be mere news and becomes a real-life issue for millions of people at a specific moment.

As for the war in Iran, this moment arose very quickly, as it was also evident on flight booking websites. A ticket from Rome to Dubai for February 2026 cost a certain amount, but a few days after hostilities broke out, that route was suspended. The tourism field is particularly quick to highlight the consequences of geopolitical conflicts. This feature does not stem from any perceived fragility, given that tourism has shown remarkable resilience in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. It depends rather on its heavy reliance on two factors that are the first to be affected by war: the perception of safety and the cost of fuel.

The Gulf that is emptying

The events affecting destinations in the Persian Gulf since Febrary 28th have been unprecedented in recent times in terms of their speed. The World Travel & Tourism Council has estimated losses of at least 600 million dollars per day due to the lack of tourism spending within the region. In practical terms, this means empty hotels and shopping centres, restaurants forced to lay off staff, and tour operators busy processing refunds rather than selling holiday packages.

Over the last few years, the Middle East has invested heavily in developing a competitive tourism industry: cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha have evolved from mere transit hubs into fully-flegded destinations. However, this strategy, which had been developed over the course of a decade, came to an abrupt halt within a matter of weeks. According to Tourism Economics, arrivals in the region are expected to fall by between 11% and 27% by 2026, with estimated losses of between $34 billion and $56 billion, exceeding any previously projected scenario.

The kerosene problem that not everyone understands

A technical aspect of this crisis, often overlooked in public debate but well known to airlines, concerns aviation fuel. The European airports association, ACI Europe, has informed the European Commission that, should transit through the Strait of Hormuz not resume permanently within a few weeks, Europe would face a systemic shortage of jet fuel. The consequences are already evident in the decisions taken by airlines: Lufthansa has announced the cancellation of 20,000 short-haul flights up to October 2026, intending to save around 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel; SAS has cancelled 1,000 in April alone. The reduction in flights leads to fewer seats being available and, in a market characterised by strong demand, this results in higher prices for travellers.

The traveller who puts holiday reservations off and the evolving market

Data collected from Italian travel agencies provide a key indicator for understanding how the sector is evolving According to the Aidit Federturismo Confindustria Observatory, 75% of operators report a significant impact on their business, 90.1% note a decline in bookings, and 62% of customers tend to put off their purchasing decisions. Postponing a purchasing decision does not necessarily mean giving up on it definetely. This is a rational wait-and-see approach: the traveller does not cancel the trip, but postpones the decision until the situation becomes clearer. This trend is leading to a decline in advance bookings - which are essential for operators to plan their budgets and fill charter flights - and is increasing the volatility and of the entire tourism season.

At the same time, tourism demand is evolving towards new destinations. The hardest hit regions are the Middle East (where over 80% of operators report declines), North Africa (66%) and Turkey (47%). Conversely, destinations experiencing growth include Italy, which ranks first with 41.1%, followed by Spain with 23.6% and, more broadly, the western Mediterranean region.

Partial winners and hidden risks

Italy is currently in a dual position. On the one hand, it is taking advantage of a shift in demand: Sardinia is already almost fully booked for the summer as early as April, whilst Sicily is experiencing an increase in fligh bookings. On the other hand, in Puglia, travel agencies report that bookings have plateaued at 60% of available rooms, with a significant drop in bookings from foreign tourists, especially from the US. Tourism from the US is a particularly sensitive indicator, as it reacts more quickly to perceived instability than European tourism, which has a higher risk tolerance threshold. If the crisis were to drag on, this segment - characterised by a high economic value per stay - might not return during the season. Consequently, an increase in domestic tourism coupled with a decline in long-haul travel would still result in lower profitability than might otherwise be expected.

What this crisis theaches us

War in Itan has highlighted a fact that was already known but not fully understood: global tourism is a deeply connected system, in which the closure of a strait thousands of kilometeres away can lead to the closure of a hotel in Lecce (South Apulia) or the cancellation of a flight from Milan. This is not a vulnerability that can be eliminated, but rather reflects the very nature of the travel industry in the era of globalisation. Tourism does not come to a standstill, but rather transforms, redistributes itself, contracts and subsequently recovers in other areas. Operators who are able to anticipate these changes and offer flexible, accessible solutions that are perceived as secure will deal with the crisis more successfully than those who passively wait for the difficulties to end.

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