Translated by Irene Cecchi
On July 1st 2025, the Thai Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, accusing her of violating institutional ethics. This decision shakes the country's political stability, exposing deep tensions not only within the current government but also in the long and controversial political history of the Shinawatra dynasty, a family long at the center of a fierce power struggle between popular support and conservative elites.
Thailand’s political context
Thailand is formally a democratic constitutional monarchy, but in practice, political power is divided and contested by a triangle of forces that has shaped the country’s political life for decades: the royal-military elite, the judiciary and the populist parties linked to the Shinawatra family. Added to this is the army’s decisive influence, which presents itself as the guardian of order and national unity but has, in fact, shaped Thailand’s modern history: since 1932, there have been 13 military coups, many aimed at halting democratically elected governments.
Thai politics is deeply and chronically divided along ideological and social issues: on one side are the pro-Shinawatra populists, known as the “Reds”, mainly supported by the rural masses of the North and Northeast, who demand social and economic reforms and often win elections; on the other side are the royalist-military, the “Yellows”, backed by urban elites, the army and the monarchy, determined to protect the status quo. While the populists frequently win at the polls, the conservatives often manage to block their actions or remove them from power via court rulings or military coups.
The Shinawatra Dynasty
The Thai Rak Thai party, now known as the Pheu Thai Party, was founded by Thaksin Shinawatra (Paetongtarn’s father) a telecom tycoon who became prime minister in 2001. Thaksin gained massive support among the country’s poor, especially in rural areas, thanks to economic inclusion policies, public healthcare and agricultural microcredit. But his electoral success and assertive leadership angered Bangkok’s elites, who accused him of corruption and authoritarianism. In 2006, he was ousted in a military coup and later went into self-imposed exile.
In 2011, after years of political tension, Yingluck Shinawatra (Paetongtarn’s aunt and Thaksin’s sister) became Thailand’s first female prime minister. However, her government also met resistance: she was removed from office in 2014 by the Constitutional Court in a controversial ruling, followed shortly by another military coup, yet another setback in Thailand’s troubled democratic journey.
In 2023, Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, became the leader of the Pheu Thai Party. The party won the national elections but was initially unable to form a government due to resistance from the military and conservative-controlled institutions. After months of political negotiation and compromise, the Pheu Thai Party finally took power in 2024 and Paetongtarn became prime minister: a young, modern figure who symbolized a new beginning for both the party and the country.
However, everything changed on July 1st 2025. Following a phone call between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, the opposition accused her of using an overly deferential or even “submissive” tone, framing it as undue subservience to a foreign power. Based on this accusation, the Constitutional Court decided to suspend her, giving her 15 days to defend herself.
This event draws attention to the broader implications this move may have for Thailand’s institutional stability and for the society.
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