Translated by Irene Cecchi
Trump’s second mandate. The election of Donald J. Trump as United States President, following the November 5th polls, marks the comeback at the White House of the Bifrons Janus how looks at the same time both at the political legacy that he left when he was the 45th President in 2016 and also at a future international scenario that is quite different from what is was four years ago, at the end of his mandate.
It will be particularly interesting to see the US approach to Sub Saharan Africa, a less geopolitically strategic region in a global scale compared to others, but still very important considering the wider context of the US race against other global actors, like Russia and China.
In October 2020, the analysts’ shared opinion was that Sub Saharan Africa, usually not at the core of the US political agenda, was at the time of Trump’s first mandate even less important for Washington, also because of the President's disinterest in a continent that far from his strategic priorities.
Even if the African Affairs diplomats and the Congress tried to mitigate his words, Trump’s actions during his first mandate were highly ideological and propagandistic. Just like the 2017 choice to block federal funds for those NGOs that allowed abortion in those countries and to sign an executive order to deny any visa for people from seven muslim majority countries, like Sudan and Somalia.
And again, in 2018, Trump defined as “shithole countries” the origin of thousands of migrants who, once in Central America (especially in the visa-friendly Nicaragua), try to get to the US through its Southern border. It’s a growing number, also due to the spread perception that it's easier to get into the States than the EU, as shown by collected data: 13406 African people arrested at the Mexico-US border in 2022 against the 58462 in 2023.
Realpolitik first. These are words and measures that describe the tycoon’s protectionist policy that aim to make America great again, a policy that is hostile to international cooperation, that is not disorganized but pragmatic and dedicated to follow policies that are distant from the typical ones on Washington and more similar to the Americans average sensibility in order to guarantee a stronger partnership. In the mentioned cases, the funds for African countries that were reevaluated were the ones destined to more controversial scopes like the safeguard of LGBTQ rights and reproductive health for women, the same ones that were undermined also in the US.
Trump doctrine. The change in the paradigma followed by Trump can be related to the will to go towards a less value-oriented approach, characterized by widespread value relativism. This approach is backed by the concept of inviolability of each State’s sovereignty, especially by China that is well aware of the importance, mostly quantitative, of African Countries when it comes to multilateral diplomatic meetings.
The African group is the most numerous in the UN so, if they are not aligned with the US, it may affect Washington clout and interests in the world, in a political, economic and strategic sense: it’s the case of the precious access to rare minerals under African soil that are very demanded, especially by the EU that is going through a green transition, but that are mainly exported by China thanks to its capillary presence in Africa and Latin America.
Under the security perspective, in the last few years the Sahel region and western Africa were destabilized by a series of coupes and civil conflicts. African military groups turned to external actors like the ex Wagner Group, now called Africa Korps, to get some kind of support, while American forces were pushed away by some countries like Niger after the US stopped the fundings consequently to the 2023 military coup.
It’s been years now that Washington can’t stem the rampant instability that affects the continent, often backed by external powers. The American goal to guarantee “a liberal peace” progressively lost its force also due to the dis-engagement in the field that Trump might decide to replace with new diplomatic solutions, for example by recognising Somaliland sovereignty, in order to stem the Chinese influence in Djibouti, or by supporting non-democratic and illiberal governments that align with American positions in multilateral gatherings and work as Washington representatives all over the world.
Even if it might seem a contradiction, also the decision not to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is coherent with a new strategy that aims to foster bilateral relations without tight and strict criteria, such as protecting human rights, respecting the rule of law and pluralism, like it is with the AGOA.
The agreement, first signed in 2000 and than renewed in 2015, allows Sub Saharan Countries to export hundred of products, mainly textiles, to the US with no duties on the condition that they respect the mentioned requirements (that’s why Binden had to suspend this possibility for seven countries whose policies were considered anti-democratic). The Prosper Africa Initiative implemented by Trump in his first mandate lacks these requirements and it benefits US investors and the African middle class. It was elaborated to keep up and compete with China that doesn’t impose any clause related to human rights to its partners and that became the main commercial partner for the African continent.
Trump’s new strategy is precisely designed to stem the Chinese, and also Russian, influence in the African continent and avoid that the latter swifts even more towards the East.
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