COP 29: the dramatic challenge of finding financial sources for the future

Translated by Andrea Solazzo

That the climate crisis is one of the most serious and central issues on the political agendas of many countries is well established. At the same time, however, it is important to point out that greenhouse gas emissions have increased in recent years to a record 57.1 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. An alarming trend, which will have a negative impact on keeping the local average temperature below the 1.5°C threshold.

Following these assumptions, there are many doubts that could arise concerning international initiatives, aimed at countering the phenomenon through multilateralism. A particular reference here goes to the latest COP29, held in Baku.

The COPs, i.e., the Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, are probably the most important negotiating context in climate matters. They bring together many countries - as many as 198 - including the European Union.

Beginning with the first COP, held in Berlin, the results of these international summits have been mixed, since, in addition to mere promises or good practices, extremely onerous policies would have to be adopted, which for this would require considerable economic aid.

It is not difficult, in fact, to reconstruct what happened during one of the longest climate conferences, which closed with no less than 32 hours more than planned. In recent days, on the negotiators' table was a new climate finance target, which for the decade 2025-2035 envisaged a contribution from the industrialised countries of around 250 billion dollars per year.

This umpteenth attempt tried hard to reconcile the parties, but with extreme difficulty and rather negative results. It was only in the final stages, and thanks to the mediation of Brazilian minister Silva and the European summits, that a decisive breakthrough was achieved: the increase in the economic effort of the most developed countries to 300 billion from 2035. This is a timid opening from the most industrialised countries towards the developing ones, but it remains totally insufficient to face the epochal challenges awaiting humanity.

According to UN researchers' estimates, limiting global warming by preparing considerably serious decarbonisation strategies would, in fact, require four times the sum currently allocated, i.e., around USD 1 trillion in public funding.

A situation that differs little from that which has arisen during other COPs, highlighting how unlikely it is that the situation will suddenly improve at subsequent conferences, given the enormous distance between the parties. Not to mention a not secondary aspect in the game: the role of the USA after Trump's election victory.

In fact, it is no news how much Trump is opposed to this type of policy, to the extent that he has repeatedly declared that the United States will soon withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, the main commitment in terms of emissions reductions made by the member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This is a shake-up with enormous negative consequences, which could nullify the few and costly efforts made so far and risk the loss of valuable financial support.

These are all reasons that draw attention to the importance of the actors in the field, starting with the role that the EU and China will have to play and the importance of multilateral policies, especially about economic efforts.

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