Framing The World, CXVIII Edition

Framing The World, CXVIII Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with the latest developments in the war between Israel and Hamas and the possibilities of regional escalation at the borders, particularly in Lebanon. Additionally, we describe American diplomacy in action as it seeks to keep the “two peoples, two states” mantra alive. On the European front, however, we focus on the failed outcomes of the EU preparatory summit for COP28, while in Asia we report on the humanitarian catastrophe of the earthquake in Nepal. All this and much more in the 118th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

China, human rights lawyer sentenced. On 25 October, 74-year-old lawyer Li Yuhan was sentenced to six and a half years in prison for the crime of “picking quarrels and provoking trouble”, an offence with which courts throughout China convict human rights defenders. In the course of her career, Li has defended numerous colleagues and victims of human rights violations, in particular Falun Gong group believers and Christians. The verdict, due to multiple mistrials by the Chinese authorities, came six years after her arrest on 9 October 2017. The court then ruled that the time already spent in prison should be subtracted from the sentence, setting April 2024 as her release date. However, Li Yuhan, who has been suffering from cardiovascular, vision, hearing and high blood pressure problems since 2022, decided to appeal.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Iran, Armita Garawand killed by the Morality police. At the Shohada subway station in Tehran, Armita Garawand, 17 years old, was assaulted by the morality police for not wearing the hijab correctly. She was struck, fell unconscious, and was subsequently taken to the hospital, where she remained in a coma for 28 days before passing away. The hospital placed obstacles to relatives, preventing video recording, and forbade the family and friends from speaking to independent media. During her funeral, which took place on October 29th, authorities arrested dozens of people who were protesting her death.

(Sofia Ena)

Israel's Deployment of White Phosphorus in Lebanon. In the context of the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon, which has seen increased hostilities since October 7, the use of munitions containing white phosphorus by the Israeli artillery between October 10 and 16 has raised international concerns. In particular, an attack on October 16 in the village of Dhayra, which injured at least nine people and caused significant damage to civilian targets, has raised questions about compliance with international humanitarian law. Amnesty International's Crisis Evidence Lab has confirmed the use of white phosphorus munitions through the analysis of a video recorded in Dhayra on October 16, clearly showing signs of this weapon. Additionally, medical professionals such as Haitham Nisr from the Italian Lebanese Hospital have reported suspicious symptoms, such as coughing and respiratory difficulties, among individuals from Dhayra, suspected to be caused by the inhalation of white phosphorus.

(Sofia Ena)

Saudi Arabia, death sentence for two young men. Morris Tidball-Binz, UN Special Rapporteur on summary, extrajudicial or arbitrary executions, revealed that the Saudi Supreme Court has secretly ratified the death sentences of Abdullah al-Derazi and Jelal Labbad. The two boys had been charged with terrorism offences committed in 2014 when they were still minors, at the end of an irregular trial based on confessions extracted through torture. The conviction was ratified despite the Royal Decree 2020 aiming to abolish the death penalty for child defendants, including those convicted of terrorism offences. The two boys, who have exhausted all domestic legal remedies, are awaiting ratification of the sentence by King Salman. Amnesty International denounced the high number of death sentences in Saudi Arabia in 2023, a total of 122, after the previous year's record of 196, a number never so high in 30 years.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Kenya, King Charles III expresses “deepest regret” for past violence in Kenya during anti-colonial revolt. During King Charles’ visit in Kenya, from October 31th to November 3rd, first one in a Commonwealth country, Kenyan activists of the non-governative organisation Kenya human rights commission (Khrc)- already known in England for the legal battle it led in order to obtain a compensation for British army abuses against mau mau fighters and Kenyans who sought independence during the anti colonial revolt which happened between 1952 and 1956 - asked Charles for an official apology. King Charles expressed “greatest sorrow and deepest regret” for the “abhorrent and unjustifiable act of violence”, but he didn’t explicitly apologise, in order to avoid possible legal fallout.

Nigeria, French Foreign Affair minister meets his Nigerian counterpart in Abuja. On Friday (November 3rd),France’s Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna was hosted by Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggar. The officials discussed different topics, such as ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) political efforts in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and the signing of a cooperation agreement between the French Agency for Development and Nigeria's government. Also, the necessity of a greater African representation in global institutions was underlined: Tuggar recognised that “France has been consistent in its support for a reform for democratizing the United Nations Security Council, where Nigeria aspires to become a permanent member in the future”

Aurelia Puliafito

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, China and the United States over nuclear power. The Chinese government and the American government are organizing a diplomatic meeting to discuss the scope of nuclear arms control, which has not happened since the time of President Obama. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the discussion will take place between Mallory Stewart, a senior official from the U.S. State Department, and Sun Xiaobo, head of the Chinese arms control department. The Chinese Foreign Minister has confirmed the meeting, stating that it will interest “consultations on arms control and non-proliferation” in addition to small discussions on other long-standing issues affecting the relationship between the two countries. According to expert Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, the talks will aim to achieve “greater transparency between the two governments, but not the actual signing of a formal agreement”.

United States of America, two states for two peoples. The U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, addressed the Israeli government requesting a change in its strategy towards the Gaza Strip and emphasizing that Israel cannot achieve long-term territorial security through purely military action. For this reason, Blinken has called for greater “protection of Palestinian civilians”, to not compromise the possibility of a peace treaty in the future. After the meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blinken stated that “the best path, perhaps the only one, is that of two states for two peoples”. Netanyahu did not make any statements regarding the meeting with the U.S. Secretary of State

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Mexico, Hurricane Otis causes devastation and very serious damage. Otis, that is the name of the hurricane that is devastating Mexico and in particular the State of Guerrero. Just in the latter, the city of Acapulco, recorded winds of 255 to 265 km/h on Wednesday, October 25. The hurricane was predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, although not with such speed and extreme violence. In fact, Tropical Storm Otis became a Category 5 hurricane, the most extreme in the hurricane intensity classification, within just 12 hours. Multiple damages: landslides, flooding, land subsidence, 220 thousand damaged houses and infrastructure, lack of electricity and basic necessities. Situation that alarmed civilians who, fearing lack of supplies, looted businesses in the city. At the moment, some of the outermost areas are reporting a lack of humanitarian aid even though the federal government has currently planned to resupply basic necessities by air and to intervene more effectively.

(Serena Basso) 

Argentina, final round of general elections approaching. The decisive runoff for Argentina's general elections is scheduled for November 19. This is because last October 22 the presidential election ballot box saw two candidates, the Peronist leader Massa and the anarcho-capitalist Milei, compete primarily against each other. The center-left progressive from Union por la Patria and current Minister of Economy, Massa unexpectedly garnered 36.68% of the vote, while the right-wing economist Milei, from Libertad Avanza, got a 30%. In third place, with about a 23 %, was conservative Patricia Bullrich now out of the running. Currently the country will have to choose a president who will officially take office from December 10 until 2027, moreover in a country with a difficult economic situation given the ongoing crisis, one of the worst in 20 years.

(Serena Basso)

Brazil, clashes between fans before the Copa Libertadores final. On Thursday, 2 November, some fans of the Argentinean club Boca Juniors, who had come to Rio de Janeiro to follow their team in the final match of the Copa Libertadores, were attacked by a group of supporters of the rival team, the Brazilians of Fluminense. The aggression took place on the Copacabana beach, where the yellow-blue supporters had gathered in anticipation of the match on 4 November. While at first the two ultras limited themselves to exchanging insults, in a second moment they moved on to acts of physical violence and throwing of objects. The Brazilian police promptly intervened to break up the scuffles, using tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse the crowd and restore order.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Venezuela, outcome of opposition primaries suspended. Democracy in Caracas still remains a chimera. Despite the confidence granted by Washington and the consequent easing of sanctions on gas and oil, Nicolas Maduro's government is struggling to fulfil its commitment to restore a democratic order in the country. What happened on 22 October is emblematic of the executive's attitude: the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, after winning the party primaries with 92 per cent of the vote, was banned from public office for fifteen years, according to a decision of the supreme court announced on 30 October. According to the judicial body, which is close to the Maduro administration, the votes were tainted by fraud and therefore had to be annulled.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Alessandro Dowlatshahi and Serena Basso

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Nepal, earthquake victims rise to 150. On Friday 3 November, shortly before midnight, Nepal was hit by a-according Nepal's National Seismological Centre- 6.4 magnitude earthquake, with its epicentre in Jajarkot, north-west of the country. However, the quake was felt as far as New Delhi. Nepal's Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal travelled to the affected region on Saturday, after expressing his "deep sorrow" over the loss of life and property caused by the earthquake. A Cabinet meeting is scheduled for Sunday to decide whether to accept foreign assistance for aid and rescue. Government officials said that so far many countries have offered humanitarian aid, including China and India. The country has launched search and rescue operations for the wounded and missing, so far there have been 150 victims.

Japan to provide Philippines with surveillance radars. In the context of Asia-Pacific security, Kishida and Marcos Jr. announced an agreement that would see Japan send surveillance radar to the Philippines, a system worth $4 million. The agreement takes place under Japan's new Official Security Assistance (OAS) program, which provides defense equipment free of charge to partners with similar interests and objectives in security and foreign policy, proposed as part of the strategy of national security updated and published at the end of 2022. The official security assistance program marks a change of direction for Japan as it faces more and more unknowns in its security.

Alessandra Tamponi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU, Von der Leyen concludes Balkan tour in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has completed her visit to the Western Balkans with a significant stop in Bosnia and Herzegovina, emphasizing the importance of reforms and providing both encouragement and a warning to the country. In December of last year, Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted the status of a candidate for European Union membership, but the path to accession is far from easy. Internal divisions and complex political challenges, including the secessionist project promoted by Republika Srpska, make the journey even more intricate. During her visit, von der Leyen highlighted the urgency of fundamental reforms necessary for Bosnia and Herzegovina's progress toward EU membership and the implementation of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. She emphasized the need for unified action within the country, underscoring 14 key priorities encompassing reforms in the rule of law, fundamental rights, public administration, and the economy. Furthermore, she warned that the absence of progress in reforms could result in the redistribution of economic resources to other countries demonstrating greater commitment.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, Cop28 climate preparatory summit skips the commitment on 2025 emissions peak: During the European summit in Brussels on 26 and 27 October, a lowering of climate ambitions by European leaders appeared. In the text of the conclusions, adopted after two days of hectic negotiations, they limited themselves to calling for 'increased global action and ambition' against climate change. The leaders recognised the urgency of responding to the climate emergency, but removed the reference to the commitment to peak emissions 'by 2025 at the latest'. Although a footnote mentions the target, the reference in the main text has disappeared. This represents a downsizing of the EU's climate ambitions. Although some earlier drafts seemed to indicate a more ambitious political mandate for Cop28, it seems that the mandate will remain unchanged. However, the European Council stressed the importance of gaining broad support for the global commitments on renewable energy and energy efficiency that the EU will present at Cop28. The EU will seek to triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

EU, gender equality index improves. On 24 October, the European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE) released the new Gender Equality Index, which this year, for the first time, shows an acceleration towards equality by the European Union. At the top of the ranking are mainly northern European countries, such as Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands, which exceed the EU average score of 70.2/100 ( increased by 1.6 points compared to last year).

Although the European Union as a whole recorded a positive trend, the pattern is not homogeneous; in some countries progress has stabilised, in others the score has dropped (as in the case of France and Finland), and in others it has increased, while still remaining below the European average (Luxembourg, Portugal, Italy, Malta).
Interesting data are those concerning positions of power: for the first time in 10 years the number of women in boards of directors and parliaments is at 33%, thanks to the introduction of regulated quotas and the new directive on gender balance in boards of directors of companies.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, new plan against drugs. Last October, the European Commission presented a series of measures to combat drug trafficking networks. The Commission stated that drug trafficking is a major security problem and that the danger is growing in several countries, causing violence on the streets and victims, including children. While more than 300 tonnes of cocaine were seized in the EU in 2021, 17 tonnes were seized in Spain and the Netherlands alone during two weeks in August 2023.

The Commission wants to allocate EUR 200 million in 2024 to purchase equipment with x-ray systems that customs authorities can use to inspect containers and cars.

(Bianca Franzini)

London, AI summit. The summit, held in England and convened by Prime Minister Sunak, gave rise to a first agreement on the "safe development" of the AI. The 28 signatory states - including the US, Australia and China - have agreed, through the Bletchley Declaration, that artificial intelligence could pose a potentially catastrophic risk to humanity, and the need to define a common vision to be adopted over the next five years, addressing the priorities related to the potential and risks of this technology.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Montenegro, advancement in the race for EU membership: On Tuesday, 31 December, a meeting was held between the President of Montenegro Jakov Milatovićla and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during which Montenegro's EU accession path and the new EUR 6 billion growth plan for the Western Balkans were discussed. Following the meeting, Jakov Milatović, says that his country is ahead of the other candidates for European Union (EU) membership. Indeed, Von der Leyen herself praised Montenegro for being the most advanced country in the region and stressed the importance of determination in the accession process. Montenegro has opened all negotiating chapters, but has been slowed down by politically turbulent years. While Montenegro's new government is led by a coalition of pro-EU, pro-Serbian and Albanian minority parties, with young Prime Minister Milojko Spajić. Despite the challenges, Montenegro has a high GDP per capita, but there is still untapped potential. The EU has announced a six billion euro investment plan for the Western Balkans to double the region's economy in the next decade.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Ukraine, Zelenskyy confirms operation of Black Sea corridor and update on new EU investment plan: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reassured that the alternative Black Sea export corridor will continue to operate despite perceived threats. This emerged from a phone call between Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in which the security of shipping routes was discussed. Previously, there had been reports that the use of the corridor had been suspended due to possible threats from Russian warplanes and sea mines, although Ukrainian officials denied these claims.Meanwhile, regarding the EU's investment plan to support Ukraine, most EU leaders support the granting of more financial support, but Hungary and Slovakia have expressed reservations. The bloc's decision requires unanimity and will be taken in December. The EU executive has proposed that the bloc's 27 countries invest additional funds to finance shared expenditures, including an extension of EUR 50 billion in new aid to Kiev until 2027. However, EU leaders are struggling to agree on how to finance these initiatives.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bulgaria, local elections in 265 municipalities. Possible runoff in the capital Sofia. Local elections were held in Bulgaria on October 29. In the capital Sofia, a runoff will be held on Sunday, November 5, and the candidate of the center-right coalition formed by the parties We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria,Vasil Terziev will compete with center-left candidate Vanya Grigorova. The former is given as the favorite with 31% of the vote, against his Social Democratic opponent's 22%. After 18 at the helm of the capital, the party of former Bulgarian minister Bojko Borisov, with its candidate Anton Hekimyan, is defeated stopping at 17 percent of the vote. Grigorova, a former member of the European Parliament with pro-Russian positions, managed to win many votes by promising to initiate a fight against disparities between the center and the suburbs, and to bring greater statehood to services against the interference of private individuals, who are currently the real players in city administration. There has also been no shortage of controversy to shake up the electoral climate in the country: the presence of former members of the Communist secret service linked to deception activities and Russian interference in the elections are in fact raising significant concerns.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Western Balkans, Von der Leyen promises to bring Western Balkan economies closer to the European Union. On Oct. 30, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, during her tour of the Western Balkans, where she visited Kosovo and North Macedonia, pledged to commit to at least doubling the growth of both countries' economies over the next decade as part of the region's EU growth plan and leading the two countries to EU membership. This promise can only be fulfilled if major policy reforms such as strengthening the administrative apparatus, ensuring stable public finances, complete independence of the judiciary, and fighting corruption are completed. Another crucial element for the accession of Pristina and Skopje to the EU will be, first of all, the achievement of peaceful relations between Serbia and Kosovo, with Serbian recognition of the latter, and, finally, overcoming the Bulgarian veto for North Macedonia's accession to the EU. These steps are crucial for regional stability and progress in European membership, reports Von der Leyen.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Francesca Pasqualino and Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, the invasion of Gaza begins: For several days now, the Israeli Defence Forces have raided the Gaza Strip from the north and east. In the course of the operation, they cut the strip in two in an attempt to isolate Gaza City. Several thousand soldiers and hundreds of tanks are involved in the operation. Heavy clashes begin with Hamas militiamen barricaded in tunnels and among the rubble. The humanitarian situation worsens, with difficulties in the collection and distribution of supplies and the continuous increase in civilian victims of the bombardments. At the same time, tensions are also rising in the West Bank, where it is the settlers themselves who are fomenting the conflict. A ceasefire does not seem imminent, as Israel wants to eradicate the terrorist group permanently from Gaza territory.

(Michele Magistretti)

Lebanon, the Hezbollah leader's speech: what implications for the regional front? Hassan Nasrallah, general secretary of the Hezbollah militia party, publicly addressed the nation and the entire world on November 3, more than three weeks after the start of hostilities between Hamas and Israel. The main points touched on in the speech - in addition to the commemorations for the 40 "resistance martyrs" affiliated with the party who died in battle in southern Lebanon - are four: the fact that the Al-Aqsa Flood operation was carried out 100% by the forces Palestinians, without any prior communication to the Islamic resistance front; applause towards other regional militias affiliated with Iran on the Syrian and Iraqi front for having struck enemy (= US) targets; the accusation against the United States which are defined as the "true responsible" for what is happening in the Strip, as "the Zionist entity is only an instrument in their hands"; and finally the strategic choice to intervene against Israel, with a deterrence and destabilization function, to keep northern Israel engaged in the confrontation with Hezbollah and its followers. Based on Nasrallah's speech, and taking into account the late timing, active participation in the conflict is to be ruled out for the moment. However, if conditions lead to an increase in tensions, the escalation of violence could also spread to the Lebanese front, quoting the secretary general "in the case of a regional conflict, your (American) air and naval force will be of little use and it will be your staff who will suffer the greatest losses.” The risk that the war between Hamas and Israel in the Strip - and possibly between Hezbollah and Israel - becomes like a new Afghanistan or a new Iraq is high: an asymmetric conflict that would not solve the problems of any of the parties involved, but would fuel the mutual hatred and would leave the countries in complete disarray.

(Sara Oldani)

Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Russia Federation, CTBT’s agreement officially suspended. With President Putin's signature, the Russian Federation has definitively suspended the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT); a decision already approved last October by the Parliament. Formally speaking, the revocation of ratification does not sanction an exit from the treaty; rather, Moscow remains a signatory country, but is not bound by it. With this move, the Russian Federation emulates the position of the United States and China, which have never ratified the CTBT. In fact, the treaty has never entered into force globally precisely because of the minimal adherence of the nuclear powers: North Korea, India and Pakistan have never signed the agreements.

Pakistan, expulsions of Afghan nationals begin. On the basis of an order issued in early October, the Pakistani security forces implemented a large-scale operation aimed at arresting and deporting Afghans residing illegally in the country. The deportation order mainly concerns those thousands of Afghans who have found refuge in Pakistan over the past decades, following the instability caused first by the rise of the Taliban regime in the 1990s and later by Western military intervention. According to the Ministry of the Interior, there is a national security problem behind this decision, in respect of which the Afghan minority has often been blamed for many of the attacks that have hit Pakistan in recent years.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America