Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro
Introduction. Discontent that has been spreading among the population in Kenya, it has transformed into violent protests brutally repressed by the country’s armed forces. The reason that fueled the protesters is the approval of a financial law that, according to them, would impose excessively taxes on a population already exasperated by the high cost of living.
The measures chosen by the current government are attributed to the clear and manifested intention of President William Ruto, elected in September 2022, to make Kenya a solid and reliable partner in trade, politics and strategic matters, especially in the eyes of the international community and of the United States in particular. Actually, after fifteen years from the visit of Ghanaian President John Kufor, President Ruto visited Washington last month. This meeting was highly anticipated and of particular importance due to various interests at stake for both parties. When Washington requested guarantees of strong political and strategic alignment, Nairobi, which holds the title of major non-NATO ally, responded by asking to accelerate negotiations to realize significant American investments in the country. This request, reiterated in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by both parties, is impossible to fulfill without meeting the criteria set by international financial institutions.
This criteria includes the necessity of raising over 2 billion US dollars in revenue and lowering the public debt, which amounts to 68% of the county’s gross national product (GDP). This is consistent with requests made by the International Monetary Fund, to whom Nairobi has turned to address the “great crisis of liquidity and difficulty in accessing capital through financial markets”, as journalistDuncan Miriri, highlights. The IMF has already induced President Ruto to adopt extremely unpopular measures.
As demonstrated by the investigations conducted and published last December by Afrobarometer, for the first time in a decade, Kenyans citizens identified economic management as the major problem for the country. However, according to President Ruto, the idea that Kenyans have to pay too much in taxes is wrong and specious. Since the beginning of his term, he has aimed to demonstrate the good faith behind these measures to raise taxes, considering it essential to guarantee better services to the population and to address the excessive public debt inherited by previous administrations.
Fast degeneration of the protests. The situation deteriorated rapidly, transforming the previous peaceful protests of Tuesday, July 25th – led mainly by Gen Z youth – into a full-blown rebellion. The trigger was news of the parliament’s approval of the law, even though it had been softened and stripped of some harsher measures. Protesters targeted the parliament itself, which was taken hostage and looted by individuals President Ruto described as criminals infiltrating the demonstrators.
This statement, along with the expressed intent to reestablish order, does not bode well for a quick and peaceful resolution of the situation.
Even though the current protests are not led by the main opposition party, the Orange Democratic Movement, its leader, former president Raila Odinga, has helped instigate discontent among the population. In the past few months, Odinga himself called for protests against the government and has refused to meet with president Ruto. This may have disrupted the delicate balance of compromise that, according to journalist Charles Obbo, has allowed Kenya to “avoid civil wars or extreme political choices that have led other African nations to ruin”.
So far, protesters have gathered spontaneously, coordinating through social media. However, in the immediate aftermath of the assault to the parliament, an Internet shutdown occurred in Kenya, causing inconvenience also in Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda, due to the submarine cables passing through Kenya. The government is believed to be responsible for this act of sabotage, which resulted in significant economic losses. Each hour of the internet blackout costs the country approximately 1.8 billion of Kenyan shilling of its GDP. The shutdown was intended to prevent the protests from spreading across the entire country.
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